mb,
You are thinking to rationally. This is the Kirby Road Kluster. Bob McNair was a great guy and a successful businessman, but he surrounded himself with idiots - Charlie Disasterly, Smith, et al. No way they could ever hope for success with that front office. They will likely trade Watt for a 4th & 6th round pick in 2023, then ship Watson out for a backup QB and a second round draft pick next year.
Matt Schaub just retired. Sometime starter, perennial backup. It was revealed that this "perennial backup" made $94 million in his NFL career, a large part thanks to Houston.