BATTING - Good Coaching leads to 109 Homeruns and the Big 12 POY

[Chop]

Our bats -- OPS
(as of 3/12/2023)

There are seven different categories for classification by OPS used by Bill James (the inventor of "Moneyball). Here they are with our guys put in these categories based on their OPS as of 3/12/2023:

1. Category A: Great. 0.9000 or higher

Powell 1.199
Kennedy 0.951
Brown 0.946

2. Category B: Very good, in the range between .8334 and .8999.

Nobody for now

3. Category C: Above average, in the range between .7667 and .8333.

Daly 0.805
J. DuPlantier 0.800
Guillemette 0.796
O'Dowd 0.772

4. Category D: Average in the range between .7000 and .7666.

Nobody for now

5. Category E: Below Average in the range between .6334 and .6999.

Campbell 0.691
Carlson 0.687
Galvan 0.686

6. Category F: Poor in the range between .5667 and .6333.

Thomas 0.599

7. Category G: Very poor in the range between .5666 and lower.

Belyeu 0.405
Flores 0.405
Whitehead 0.393
Constantine 0.125


I'm not worried about Campbell or Carlson -- they're both good and will move up. Thomas needs to up his game, he's just a Freshman, but improvement is needed. Flores is dragging pretty bad in the early season. Ace hasn't been at bat enough to tell, nor has Belyeu or Constantine. Daly is underappreciated by many. Daly leads the above-average pack.

2023 Baseball Cumulative Statistics - University of Texas Athletics

https://riversharks.com/what-does-baseball-ops-stand-for/
What Is OPS in Baseball? Well, It Measures…

 

[Chop]

7 out of 9 of our batters are above-average or better.

The bottom of the lineup needs to step it up.

We may never see another batting lineup like last year, but this year's team could turn into a really good hitting team. I think our OB% is good, and we're knocking a lot of doubles.

 

[Chop]

Powell continues to tear through opposing pitching staffs.

Kennedy's cooling down from red hot to warm.

Campbell continues to struggle, but he is making some sacrifice plays.

Daly is still looking like 2021 Daly--batting over 0.300 and driving runs in.

Guillemette keeps getting on base, and driving runs in.

Thomas always looks like he's on the verge of breaking out, but hasn't quite done it yet. His bat needs to improve before conference play. If he's slumping during conference play, then Powell can fill in at 1st base from time-to-time for the bat.

Jaden DuPlantier has a hot bat. (put him at DH most games, and Powell at 3rd or outfield or 1st, or wherever--Powell can play anywhere in the field).

Brown keeps showing up well at the plate.

Jack O'Dowd is a solid batter.

Flores has one homerun, and not much else thus far...

Carlson has done ok, but hasn't played as much as he should

Galvan looks like he's got some power. Use it when he spells Guillemette on occasion, or at DH on occasion.

Belyeu hasn't done anything yet, but he hasn't had many chances.

 

[Chop]

Campbell started out slow, but I think we've got to keep him in there. He's just too good, and his bat is starting to heat up. If he gets on a roll, he's a guy that can knock 15-20 homeruns on the year.

Dylan Campbell's bat has come alive. If he get's on a streak like last year, watch out.

 

[Chop]

Our bats -- OPS
(as of 3/12/2023)

There are seven different categories for classification by OPS used by Bill James (the inventor of "Moneyball). Here they are with our guys put in these categories based on their OPS as of 3/12/2023:

1. Category A: Great. 0.9000 or higher

Powell 1.199
Kennedy 0.951
Brown 0.946

2. Category B: Very good, in the range between .8334 and .8999.

Nobody for now

3. Category C: Above average, in the range between .7667 and .8333.

Daly 0.805
J. DuPlantier 0.800
Guillemette 0.796
O'Dowd 0.772

4. Category D: Average in the range between .7000 and .7666.

Nobody for now

5. Category E: Below Average in the range between .6334 and .6999.

Campbell 0.691
Carlson 0.687
Galvan 0.686

6. Category F: Poor in the range between .5667 and .6333.

Thomas 0.599

7. Category G: Very poor in the range between .5666 and lower.

Belyeu 0.405
Flores 0.405
Whitehead 0.393
Constantine 0.125


I'm not worried about Campbell or Carlson -- they're both good and will move up. Thomas needs to up his game, he's just a Freshman, but improvement is needed. Flores is dragging pretty bad in the early season. Ace hasn't been at bat enough to tell, nor has Belyeu or Constantine. Daly is underappreciated by many. Daly leads the above-average pack.

2023 Baseball Cumulative Statistics - University of Texas Athletics

https://riversharks.com/what-does-baseball-ops-stand-for/
What Is OPS in Baseball? Well, It Measures…

A fair goal is to have all 9 of our regular/every-day starters batting "Average" or better in the OPS ratings. Then, we can be a chain with no weak links. Campbell is probably already there, and moving up rapidly. Thomas, a true Freshman, needs to keep improving.

 

[Chop]

Updated OPS stats as of 3/16/2023


1. Category A: Great. 0.9000 or higher

Powell 1.118
Kennedy 1.025
Brown 0.981

2. Category B: Very good, in the range between .8334 and .8999.

Nobody for now

3. Category C: Above average, in the range between .7667 and .8333.

Guillemette 0.827
J. DuPlantier 0.820
Daly 0.801

4. Category D: Average in the range between .7000 and .7666.

O'Dowd 0.741
Campbell 0.717

5. Category E: Below Average in the range between .6334 and .6999.

Carlson 0.687

6. Category F: Poor in the range between .5667 and .6333.

Thomas 0.628
Galvan 0.625

7. Category G: Very poor in the range between .5666 and lower.

Belyeu 0.453
Flores 0.405
Whitehead 0.393
Constantine 0.125

 

[Chop]

So, as of 3/16, we've got 8 batters at average or better, including 3 in the "Great" category. Look for Campbell and O'Dowd to move up into the above-average category before long. True Freshman Thomas is still the laggard among starters, but look for him to go from "Poor" to "Below Average" soon, and hopefully keep advancing into the "Average" or even better as he gets more experience this year. Carlson could also move into the "Average" category if he ever got to play.

 

[Chop]

Morning of St Patrick's Day.

Our team OPS is 0.795

That's firmly within the "Above Average" category.

Thanks largely to our pitching, our Opponents' OPS in games vs us is 0.668, which is within the "Below Average" category.

That's an OPS Delta of 0.127 -- a big difference between our hitting, and how other teams are hitting against us.

A lot of our losses have been by 1 run or 2 runs. I wish we'd score more runs, but this could be a really good team.

2023 Baseball Cumulative Statistics - University of Texas Athletics

 

[Vol Horn 4 Life]

Do you think the MLB OPS stat translates to the college level? I'm sure its a pretty good overall measure but everyone in MLB elite so this type of metric is almost exact science. We're about to finish a stretch of games against some pretty mediocre to bad teams where we are boosting our numbers a lot.

Not intended to criticize, just wondering about that and how it will translate to conference play.

Looking at our losses we didn't do poorly at the plate I guess but not sure where to find OPS for single game results.

 

[Chop]

Do you think the MLB OPS stat translates to the college level? I'm sure its a pretty good overall measure but everyone in MLB elite so this type of metric is almost exact science. We're about to finish a stretch of games against some pretty mediocre to bad teams where we are boosting our numbers a lot.

Not intended to criticize, just wondering about that and how it will translate to conference play.

Looking at our losses we didn't do poorly at the plate I guess but not sure where to find OPS for single game results.

You won't find me in the Houston Astros' analytics department, or anything like that, but here's my stab at it...

There is a certain level of "alchemy" to baseball stats. But, given a large enough sample, I think that the Moneyball OPS stat is a pretty good measure of a batter's overall effectiveness at both the pro and the college level. It captures OB% (which, in turn, captures batting average and walks), and Slugging % (which weighs doubles, triples, and homeruns a lot more than singles). One thing it does not measure is RBI--which, to me, is a gauge of clutch hitting (but I think the Moneyball folks largely disregard it).

If the competition and "padding stats" vs crappy teams is what bothers you, LSU, Tech, Arkansas, and just about everyone else also does it before conference play starts. If our #s go South a bit over the course of conference play, that's not too surprising. What OPS also does is rank your batters, and shows you who's getting better and who's slumping. I think it's pretty effective.

 

[Chop]

Bottom line: right now, we're a decent hitting team overall--above average overall (not a very good hitting team), but decent/above average. The OPS stats confirm this, and possibly boost us a tad above reality at bat.

We're a very good pitching team. Best in the conference (although Tech's staff is putting up some pretty good numbers as well). And with the strength of our bullpen, this (plus an above average hitting team) could put us anywhere from 3rd in the conference to Omaha.

 

[Chop]

The bottom 2-3 hitters need to step it up. The top of the lineup is carrying us offensively.

 

[Your Wrong]

I’m no analytics dude, but batting average with RISP is a pretty strong indicator over RBIs for me. Even within that, there are variations - on 3rd with less than 2 outs is different than man on 2nd with 2 outs. A sac fly in the former doesn’t negatively impact your BA, but an RBI groundout does. A hit in the latter scenario may not score the runner but in most cases advances the situation and allows the next guy an opportunity. A lot of RBIs does not necessarily indicate efficiency - it could be more opportunities.

Using all the numbers collectively is more impactful. Is Porter Brown our best run producer or is he the recipient of the most opportunities?

As to OPS, that’s a pretty encompassing stat so it’s gotta be useful. It’s probably more limited now because of the limited sample size that’s heavily impacted by lesser teams played to date, which is not specific to us.

I like the traditional stats. At the same time, I’m not overly excited about a guy like Ichiro hitting .350 with an OBP of .375 and somebody else’s lead off guy battling.300 with an OBP of .400.

We seem to have patient hitters. That may change as our competition becomes better and more consistent. We’ve had more and harder outs than our opponents the last two weeks. I’m interested to see how it impacts us once the weather warms up. If we convert a few more into gappers, that’ll help.

Our last two spots need to produce like was mentioned. Campbell hasn’t produced the runs yet, but he has been getting on base reasonably well, and that’s really the expectation for two hole hitter.

Be patient at the plate and keep taking good swings. Then just see where the chips fall.

 

[Chop]

3/19/2023

Eric Kennedy

7 homeruns

 

[Chop]

56 games in the regular season

figure (pessimistic) scenario-- 2 games in conference tourney, 2 games in regional

Total 60 games.

We've played 21 games.

60 divided by 21 equals 2.86; so take current homeruns multiplied by 2.86, and round for projected homeruns for the following players:

Batter...........Homeruns........Projected Homeruns

Kennedy........7......................20
Brown...........4......................11
Campbell.......4......................11
Powell...........3.......................9
Daly..............2.......................6
O'Dowd.........1.......................3
Galvan...........1.......................3
Flores............1.......................3

Totals............23.....................66

So, we're on pace for 66 homeruns this year.
That's average. Not good. Not bad. Just average.

 

[Chop]

Right now, we're 5th out of 9th (exactly in the middle) of the Big 12 in runs scored, batting average, and homeruns.

We've got an average offense this year. (and that may be all we need with this pitching staff...)

Big 12 Conference

 

[Chop]

Campbell's OPS is up to 0.808

That means he's batting above-average (per the Moneyball guys).

 

[Chop]

Updated Moneyball OPS ratings

Our bats -- OPS
(as of 3/26/2023 after the Tech series)

There are seven different categories for classification by OPS used by Bill James (the inventor of "Moneyball). Here they are with our guys put in these categories based on their OPS as of 3/26/2023:

1. Category A: Great. 0.9000 or higher

Powell 1.185
Brown 1.128
Kennedy 1.113
Guillemette 0.974


2. Category B: Very good, in the range between .8334 and .8999.

Campbell 0.869
Galvan 0.842

3. Category C: Above average, in the range between .7667 and .8333.

O'Dowd 0.794

4. Category D: Average in the range between .7000 and .7666.

Nobody for now

5. Category E: Below Average in the range between .6334 and .6999.

Daly 0.688
Carlson 0.680
J. DuPlantier 0.667

6. Category F: Poor in the range between .5667 and .6333.

Thomas 0.627
Belyeu 0.606

7. Category G: Very poor in the range between .5666 and lower.

Whitehead 0.543
Flores 0.452
Constantine 0.214


Our top 7 form a solid core for what could turn into a really good lineup. Daly needs to step it back up to where he was earlier in the season, and Thomas is finally showing some signs of life at the plate. And importantly, we've found our DH. His name: Galvan. Get Thomas and Daly in gear, and keep it up, and we'll score a lot of runs during conference play.

1. Powell 1.185
2. Brown 1.128
3. Kennedy 1.113
4. Guillemette 0.974
5. Campbell 0.869
6. Galvan 0.842
7. O'Dowd 0.794

 

[Chop]

So, in the 2/3 to 3/4 of the games that Guillemette catches, Galvan is the DH.

In the 1/4 to 1/3 of the games that Galvan catches, Guillemette is the DH.

 

[Chop]

Pete Rose said the "secret" to the success of the Big Red Machine was the bats at Catcher, 2nd base, and Shortstop.

Pete's theory was that outfielders are going to hit good. So are 1st basemen, and 3rd basemen. Most teams have crappy hitters at Catcher, Shortstop, and 2nd base. The Big Red Machine focused a lot on drafting, developing, trading for, and keeping a good-hitting catcher (Johnny Bench), shortstop (Dave Concepcion), and 2nd basemen (Joe Morgan). In this way, they developed their chain-with-no-weak-links lineup and one of the great dynasties in the history of the game. Pete said Sparky Anderson agreed with him on this.

 

[Chop]

After the Tech series


The TEAM is batting 0.286 avg with an OPS of 0.869 ("Very Good" per founder of Moneyball) and 35 Homeruns.

 

[Chop]

Assume pessimistically 61 games (regular season + 2 conf tourney + 3 regional).

As of 3/26/2023, we're through 25 games, or 25/61 = 0.4167 of the season.

Extrapolate 35 homeruns over the entire season...

35 divided by 0.4167 = 84 homeruns projected for this season. Not bad at all.

And Campbell has just begun to get hot. Same with Galvan and O'Dowd.

 

[Chop]

Ok. We're even better than I thought we were.

 

[Chop]

We're up to 3rd in the conference in homeruns, and 4th in batting avg.

Currently we're the best in the conference in pitching, and above-average in the conference at batting.

Teams to challenge us for the title: OSU, WV, Tech, TCU, KSU (still looking wide open). WV has a pitcher that destroyed the Cape Cod League last Summer. He just blew it up like that Shark between the Cape and the Vineyard on Jaws. A guy like that can win any one game that he pitches--even against LSU or Wake Forest.

If and when we go into Stillwater and come away 2-1 or 3-0, we'll be in a very strong position. That and at TCU may be the key series(es) of our conference play.

 

[mchammer]

Hitting and fielding has improved up to the talent level. We need the same from our inexperienced pitchers in the bullpen. No rush on this - but it needs to be settled before post season. Getting Witt back will help a lot.

 

[Chop]

Campbell is up to a 0.266 avg, 5 HR, and an 0.878 OPS.

We've seen this one before.

The flame has been lit.

He's about to IGNITE!!!

 

[Chop]

3/29/2023

Team batting avg = 0.290

Team OPS = 0.867

 

[Chop]

And yes, there will be some internet wise guys who will claim we "padded" our stats by scheduling cupcakes like Texas A&M for non-conference opponents...

 

[Chop]

Our bats -- OPS
(as of 3/30/2023)


1. Category A: Great. 0.9000 or higher

Powell 1.209
Kennedy 1.124
Brown 1.122
Guillemette 0.976

2. Category B: Very good, in the range between .8334 and .8999.

Campbell 0.878

3. Category C: Above average, in the range between .7667 and .8333.

Nobody

4. Category D: Average in the range between .7000 and .7666.

O'Dowd 0.754
Galvan 0.734

5. Category E: Below Average in the range between .6334 and .6999.

Daly 0.686
Carlson 0.680
J. DuPlantier 0.667
Thomas 0.638

6. Category F: Poor in the range between .5667 and .6333.

Belyeu 0.606

7. Category G: Very poor in the range between .5666 and lower.

Whitehead 0.543
Flores 0.452
Constantine 0.214


2023 Baseball Cumulative Statistics - University of Texas Athletics

 

[Chop]

Our bats -- OPS
(as of 3/30/2023)


1. Category A: Great. 0.9000 or higher

Powell 1.209
Kennedy 1.124
Brown 1.122
Guillemette 0.976

2. Category B: Very good, in the range between .8334 and .8999.

Campbell 0.878

3. Category C: Above average, in the range between .7667 and .8333.

Nobody

4. Category D: Average in the range between .7000 and .7666.

O'Dowd 0.754
Galvan 0.734

5. Category E: Below Average in the range between .6334 and .6999.

Daly 0.686
Carlson 0.680
J. DuPlantier 0.667
Thomas 0.638

6. Category F: Poor in the range between .5667 and .6333.

Belyeu 0.606

7. Category G: Very poor in the range between .5666 and lower.

Whitehead 0.543
Flores 0.452
Constantine 0.214


2023 Baseball Cumulative Statistics - University of Texas Athletics

Our best 5 are outstanding.

Guys like O'Dowd, Galvan, and Daly need to at least stay at the "Average" level. I think both O'Dowd and Galvan have a lot more power to show us. Thomas is steadily moving up from horrendous to below average. By the tournaments, I'd expect Thomas to be in the Average level or above. He is developing, not just running in place without improvement. You can see it.