aTm on the tourney bubble??

[Chest Rockwell]

I saw on ESPN after the game that they had aTm as a "lock" to get into the NCAA tourney. [Lee Corso] "Not so fast my friend." [/Lee Corso]

The committee looks at several factors:
1) Overall record
2) Ranking/RPI
3) SOS
4) Quality wins
5) How hot/cold is a team finishing off the year?

Their overall record (20-6) is solid, but I can easily see 3 more losses (@ Norman, @ Waco, KU) on that schedule to finish 22-9. Given that their RPI was 38 (and falling) and their SOS was 116 (which will climb), the matter of quality wins comes into question. As of right now, the only win they have over a team guaranteed to make the tourney is their home win against us - which the "avenged" with a 27 point drubbing. Ohio State is on the bubble, but their remaining schedule is Wisc, @ Ind, @ Minn, Pur, Mich St so they could easily lose their final 6 games to finish 17-14.

If the Aggies do lose the games I expect them to, they'll enter the Big 12 tourney losing 5 of their last 7 - and have a pretty thin NCAA resume. They may very well have to get to the Finals of the conference tourney to avoid the NIT.

 

[ProdigalHorn]

But they also have some tournament credibility, don't underestimate that. Even if they come in a little low, I don't see them getting passed up unless they just tank down the stretch.

 

[blonthang]

who?

 

[KosherHorn]

They have a blowout victory over a 1-2 seed, so barring a complete collapse that will probably be good enough for them to get in. Ohio State is in big trouble, though, as they have no good wins to fall back on, and that loss Sunday at Michigan was inexcusable.

 

[CadetHorn]

I have to think trhat if they arent on the bubble, they will be. They are tied in conf losses w/ Baylor and OU, and still have to play both of them on the road. With that in mind, and a Kansas lost being inevitable, they can finish SIXTH in the Big 12 at 8-8. EWWW.

 

[Horns83]

If they finish 2-3 over their last 5 games, they could very well be a bubble team.

 

[Bob in Houston]

There is this "last 12 games" thing, which used to be "last 10 games," but now teams play more games (or something like that).

I think it's a bogus measurement for reasons I won't go into, as well as an excuse to leave teams out, but if A&M loses three of its last five, its last 12 will not be a pretty sight -- likely in the 7-5 range.

 

[CadetHorn]

THey are showing that they are a .500 team. They are 5-5 in their last 10 right now, and probably will be 3-2 at best in their next 5. THey are a .500 team.

 

[austintex]

I'd love to see them make the tournament as a 9 seed and draw, say, Memphis or Duke in the 2nd round...

 

[KosherHorn]

An 8-8 record in the 2nd-highest rated conference in the country with a blowout win over Texas should be enough. Now if the Aggies lose their first game at the Big XII Tournament...

 

[LonghornLawyer]

I vowed to abstain from aggy misery for Lent. But I may have to break my vow if aggy somehow manages to miss the Tournament after starting the year 14-1. I mean, I'm only human. And Jesus himself wouldn't have been able to refuse if the Devil had tempted him in the desert with such huge and only lighly cut railroad ties of aggy misery.

Don't do it, aggy--my eternal soul hangs in the balance.

 

[Statalyzer]

[texags]Obession noted...sure are a lot of worried sips over there.[/texags]

 

[BostonRC]

This is a really weak year for the bubble, so A&M should get in without a problem unless they absolutely melt down over these last few weeks. There are going to be a handful of "big name" schools that are much less deserving than A&M who get in, simply because there are more slots than teams with solid bodies of work.

 

[Bob in Houston]

In reply to:

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[ViperHorn]

Agree that the win over Texas at Collie Station probably will get them in.

 

[KosherHorn]

If the Aggies would have beaten OSU, they'd be 7-4 in conference and no one would be promoting their doom. Granted, losing to Sean Sutton at home is ridiculously pathetic, but I'll guess they were just looking ahead to Texas and paid for it. I hope I'm wrong as it'd be great to see the Aggies struggle.

 

[HenryGandorf]

pretty sad when you lose at home because you were looking ahead, and then you go lose the game you were looking ahead to by four touchdowns on national tv.

 

[S197HQQKEM]

methingks most of the lugnuts are very loose on aggy right now, they have a real good chance of tanking completely and going NITing, especially if there are any more 27 pt mudholings down the stretch that would wipe out the fluke win over that 1-2 seed on aggy home court.

that would sit well with me.

 

[Pentaconta]

I have a feeling they'll get in, unless they tank every game between now and the tourney. They have enough cred from the last couple of years that they can at least coast to a low seed.

I'll be real surprised if they make it past the first or second round, though. I guess it depends on whom they match up against.

 

[The Horn Identity]

Not too long ago, people were talking about six Big 12 teams getting in. That was UT, KS, KSU for sure. Plus Baylor, OU, and Aggies. With the separation growing wider that the Big 12 may only get five. But, Baylor appears to be falling apart faster than the Aggies.

Aggies need to beat either OU or Baylor down the stretch. It wouldn't hurt for them to play KS tough at home - even if they eventually lose.

I still think the Aggies make it in.

 

[Chest Rockwell]

I'd say they're creeping to the outside of the bubble now.