75 years ago today

The Allies exercised poor judgment but they did have leverage on Germany due to US presence. Without the US the Allies and Germany would have had to have had a more equitable agreement.

Yes, but for the wrong reasons. Or the treaty may have been written in the context of an Allied defeat. You don't seem to account for that very possible outcome.

Well fighting WW1 and exhausting all those resources would have ended plans for expansion at least for a while.

I don't know why you would think that. And how long is "a while?". Keep in mind that Hitler didn't invent the idea of expansion to the East. He just happened to be the one who tried to force it. German nationalists were generally supportive of it, because they favored unifying ethnic Germans (who were spread all over Europe) into a unified German Reich.

Plus continued US involvement extended the war making Russia more ripe for the Bolshevist revolution. The Russian army was still involved in the war when the Czar was deposed. Being in the war was a big part of the Communists message against the Czar. There were many factors in play that brought about the deposing of the Czar in Feb 1918 and the Bolshevik take over in October.

Did it extend the war? I'm not sure how that could be the case unless we're talking about an Allied defeat.

And you are correct that the war was a factor in the Russian Revolution, but Russia's problems were deeper than the war. Had it ended sooner, those problems wouldn't have gone away.

There is more going on there than you include in your comment includes. The only thing different between the occupations was not being half-assed vs being real. There are other examples in US history that bear that out too.

The occupations of Germany and Japan were different for two reasons. First, the underlying wars were different. We inflicted complete and utter destruction on the people both physically and psychologically. They were totally broken as human beings. Second, we had a massive occupation force that criminalized the underlying ideology under penalty of being summarily shot and destroyed all symbols of that ideology. That's why those nations folded and became manageable. We've never done anyone even close to that in the Middle East or really anywhere else.

am not into economic nationalism. US citizens and the citizens of the world should be free to trade with one another as much as possible.

You do know that's only possible with a naval presence that protects shipping routes, right? We just take it for granted, but the US Navy (and previously the Royal Navy) is the main reason we don't have pirates attacking and robbing trade vessels all over the oceans.

We understand some nations better than others. Some we don't understand at all. I think that is self-evident.

I'm not talking about understanding the nations. I'm talking about understanding how a nation's leaders perceive the United States and its presence in various areas. Those are separate issues.

Oh, yeah? The alternative is to roll back involvement slowly and evaluate each step of the way. There will be some optimum level, which I expect would be somewhere in between US border and across the globe.

So where should we start? And what's the contingency plan if the areas we abandon turn out not to be the peace-loving choirboys we assumed they were? Keep in mind that the places where we have a military presence are in regions where there has been trouble. We didn't go there for no reason.

True. But that doesn't mean you have to have regular patrols into the South China Sea into the Persian Gulf up into Black Sea.

So how often do you think we should patrol those areas?

We have on multiple occasions, like the missile system NATO (we) were going to put in Eastern Europe.

What's wrong with putting missile defense in Eastern Europe?

Yes, and we should protect our citizens from Islamic terrorism but otherwise leave them alone.

With the US becoming a major producer of oil, we'll have less need to be involved in the Middle East. However, we can't protect our citizens from Islamic terrorism if we can't go where they are. And again, their religion dictates that they not leave us alone, so conflict between the Islamic world (as divided and diverse as that world may be) and the rest of the world willl always be a major security issue as has been since the 8th century. The problem existed before we had ships in the Persian Gulf and before we had some troops in the Middle East (and we don't have that many nor do we have a presence in many Islamic countries), and it won't go away if we leave. We'll just be in a far weaker position to stop them if and when they decide they want more converts.
 
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^Happy Birthday, young man! I remember being 43 - I think (since I'm 75 now, that was 32 years ago; as you age, the first two things to go are your memory and - and - I forgot the other one). :smile1:
 
My fellow Gemini* ... tomorrow’s my b-day

* I’m not into astrology but I read somewhere that Gemini’s are smart and charming so I kinda want to believe... :idk:
Mine was Tuesday the 11th.

It's a damned Gemini convention around here. And wouldn't you know it? Attendance is double what was projected...
 
My fellow Gemini* ... tomorrow’s my b-day

* I’m not into astrology but I read somewhere that Gemini’s are smart and charming so I kinda want to believe... :idk:

Well, a happy early birthday to you! And yes, Geminis are clearly smart, charming, and all other good things. Never known a Gemini who sucked.
 
Yes, but for the wrong reasons. Or the treaty may have been written in the context of an Allied defeat. You don't seem to account for that very possible outcome.

You're right I wasn't thinking about that. Not sure Germany winning was any worse than the Allies winning in terms of any treaties. I simply don't know. Remember Germany started the war (which is on them) in order to protect Austro-Hungary from a Russian invasion due to the conflict between Serbian nationalists and the Austro-Hungarians. Germany didn't enter the war to expand. Maybe they would have done so but they would have had the Russians to contend with still.

What I do know is that the war was at a stalemate before the US entered. If things proceeded similarly there would have been a more equitable negotiation as no one had truly won the war.

Your comment about Germans wanting to unite all ethnic Germans, I will have to take your word for it. I don't doubt it. Creating true nation states was the aim back then.

Did it extend the war? I'm not sure how that could be the case unless we're talking about an Allied defeat.

And you are correct that the war was a factor in the Russian Revolution, but Russia's problems were deeper than the war. Had it ended sooner, those problems wouldn't have gone away.

It could have ended sooner as a negotiated peace after a stalemate. Many historians think that was the leading possibility.

Russian was a bad place to be under the Czars just like it is now. The issue I am talking about is that a small group took over the Russian government in Feb 1918 because the Russian army was fighting a war. If the Russian army is Russia it is very unlikely that the take over occurs. People had tried before, and am sure afterwards, but the rebels picked their timing for a reason. Some of those rebels were liberal democrats. It wasn't until Oct that the Bolsheviks took over.

The occupations of Germany and Japan were different for two reasons. First, the underlying wars were different. We inflicted complete and utter destruction on the people both physically and psychologically. They were totally broken as human beings. Second, we had a massive occupation force that criminalized the underlying ideology under penalty of being summarily shot and destroyed all symbols of that ideology. That's why those nations folded and became manageable. We've never done anyone even close to that in the Middle East or really anywhere else.

There are also great cultural differences that led to Germany and Japan capitulating. Afghanistan and Iraq are still tribal cultures. Defeating a strong man in a capital city doesn't mean anything to the tribes.

Also, we destroyed Iraq pretty completely. I don't think you can say the US didn't try to dominate through force and intimidation. The estimates are that the conflict has killed around a million Iraqis. The only thing that pacified them was paying off their Sunni tribal leaders to fight the others. It worked.

The other factor is that it is one thing outlaw a political party in Germany. They still had nonliberal parties just not Nazis. There was cultural similarity that helped. With Japan it was more difficult to end emperor worship. All we had to do was drop 2 nukes. If only we would have dropped a nuke on Iraq or Afghanistan maybe they would renounce Islam. In Iraq we did end the Baathite party, so we tried.

You do know that's only possible with a naval presence that protects shipping routes, right? We just take it for granted, but the US Navy (and previously the Royal Navy) is the main reason we don't have pirates attacking and robbing trade vessels all over the oceans.

There are multiple ways to skin a cat. US global hegemony isn't the only way to protect shipping lanes. But I agree there needs to be protection against pirating.

So how often do you think we should patrol those areas?

Don't know we need to.

What's wrong with putting missile defense in Eastern Europe?

Nothing if you don't mind the reaction by Russia. The military knows that countries in Eastern Europe into Russia are vulnerable and the countries all know it too. They also know that Russia deals with that vulnerability by extending their effective borders to protect Moscow. As NATO moved east it threatened Russia. A missile system further threatened them. As a reaction they took Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. They did wrong. But it was expected or should have been expected by our military if they knew their history. That is all I am saying. We feel more comfortable when the US extends power but some countries don't. Most can't do anything about it, some can. Russia can do a little and they did.

With the US becoming a major producer of oil, we'll have less need to be involved in the Middle East. However, we can't protect our citizens from Islamic terrorism if we can't go where they are. And again, their religion dictates that they not leave us alone, so conflict between the Islamic world (as divided and diverse as that world may be) and the rest of the world willl always be a major security issue as has been since the 8th century. The problem existed before we had ships in the Persian Gulf and before we had some troops in the Middle East (and we don't have that many nor do we have a presence in many Islamic countries), and it won't go away if we leave. We'll just be in a far weaker position to stop them if and when they decide they want more converts.

I am aware of Islamic doctrine and history. I know they are a threat.

My question is if Islamic countries want more converts why is it the sole responsibility of the US stop the conquest? Also, is a military conquest really the biggest threat from the Muslim world? I would say it is mass immigration into Europe and setting up areas governed by Sharia. The violent threat is terrorism not conquest. So I don't get what your point is.

For the oil issue. The Islamic and totalitarian countries who are major oil producers still have to sell their oil if they want money. That means they have to sell to the US and Europe. That means we have to make some concessions to them at times, even military cooperation. But I still don't see how that requires the US to be THE power in every area of the world.
 
I was traveling when you posted your last comment and forgot to respond. I'll get to it soon.
 

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