2020 Presidential Election: let the jockeying commence

[WillUSAF]

Stocks way up today. Is that an indication that the markets think Trump is going to win or just that a stimulus will happen regardless of who is elected.

I follow pretty close. It isn't about who is going to win IMO. Its stimulus getting $$ in the hands of Americans.

 

[Duck Dodgers]

Stocks way up today. Is that an indication that the markets think Trump is going to win or just that a stimulus will happen regardless of who is elected.

Markets love free money, so that's always a plus. Supposedly Wall Street donated 75 million to Slow Joe, but then there's their political preference, and what they think is going to happen. If they think Trumps going to win and the market is going up, they have to buy in too or be left on the sidelines.

 

[mchammer]

Key to OH:

 

[Joe Fan]

This is Beverly Hills today
On Saturday, there was a large Trump rally there
No boards
How do you explain that?

 

[mchammer]

Expect the GOP gain to slow or reverse midday as Dems vote. But after work, GOP to make gains.

 

[Duck Dodgers]

This is Beverly Hills today
On Saturday, there was a large Trump rally there
No boards
How do you explain that?

If no Amish coming to town, Mormons?

 

[Joe Fan]

If no Amish coming to town, Mormons?

I'm telling you, its the worry over the seniors from the home all doing the YMCA dance at the same time

 

[Joe Fan]

anyone seen Bubba today?
I knew he was excited about voting for Biden but .....

 

[militaryhorn]

Clark County update

Reps 15,245 (+4,476)
Dems 10,769
Other 12,170
Total: 38,184​

Is it really going to happen?

Is the Other category voters that are not party affiliated? How do you read this? Is it positive for Trump or Biden?

 

[horninchicago]

That’s 8 pm in Texas.

Thank you, Professor Taint.

 

[horninchicago]

Milwaukee is where the Democrats need a high turnout to offset rural votes.

Quite the afternoon, for sure.

 

[Joe Fan]

Is the Other category voters that are not party affiliated? How do you read this? Is it positive for Trump or Biden?

We will not know for certain until later
But, for now, I like to use the registration for the Trump Rallies which showed 31% of attendees were "Other" or NPA

 

[Duck Dodgers]

Yes, other in Independent.

Hard to say without knowing a lot about local elections - Clark County is Las Vegas, where the Democrats have a huge voter advantage. Can't be good for them to be behind in today's in person vote, but a lot of voting was done already. I believe they had about a 50k lead in ballots statewide (remember, no votes have been counted, but you'd much rather have a lot of your ballots in that the other party).

Other areas will turn out heavy for the Republicans, have to see by how much, and if the independent split is enough to make up for the partisan advantage.

 

[Joe Fan]

The irregularities in PA are starting to pile up

If you were wondering what happening to the bottom tweet^ showing voter suppression/fraud and a potential crime in Philly, it is because Twitter censored and blocked it

 

[mchammer]

Thank you, Professor Taint.

Florida is in 2 time zones. Some think in CST terms when discussing FL.

 

[horninchicago]

Florida is in 2 time zones. Some think in CST terms when discussing FL.

I know. Just kidding. Those people are morons lol.

 

[Joe Fan]

Yes, other in Independent.

Hard to say without knowing a lot about local elections - Clark County is Las Vegas, where the Democrats have a huge voter advantage. Can't be good for them to be behind in today's in person vote, but a lot of voting was done already. I believe they had about a 50k lead in ballots statewide (remember, no votes have been counted, but you'd much rather have a lot of your ballots in that the other party).

Other areas will turn out heavy for the Republicans, have to see by how much, and if the independent split is enough to make up for the partisan advantage.

Nevada in 2016 has a weed legalization referendum on the ballot. This drew in a lot of new, potentially one-time, voters.
Also, NV has over 100k Mormons. Some of them probably cast ballots for McMullin
Neither of those items^ is present this time. It's Trump or Biden for the bulk of it.

Also, there is another Libertarian on the ballot this time. But in 2016, they were listed as an a party and so those voters were not NPA or Other. They probably vote JJ or not at all this time.

 

[HornHuskerDad]

In 2016, the panhandle added 2% pts to Trump between 7 and 7:30 pm.

The FL panhandle (Central Time Zone) is dominated by Panama City, Fort Walton Beach, and Pensacola - these are very heavy with military presence (Tyndall AFB, Eglin AFB and all its aux fields, Pensacola NAS), which tends to vote GOP. Don't be surprised to see a big swing for Trump when these areas are posted.

 

[mchammer]

GOP +200k in FL. Better than 2016. The cushion required depends on spread of independents to Biden. No one really knows- could be 0-20%. At 10%, that is 270k. So, 300k would be great. GOP cushion to increase as working vote comes in.

 

[Joe Fan]

Stocks way up today. Is that an indication that the markets think Trump is going to win or just that a stimulus will happen regardless of who is elected.

Posted above
From the JP Morgan report

Blue wave S&P 500 to 2,500
Red Wave S&P 500 3,900​

 

[Joe Fan]

The FL panhandle (Central Time Zone) is dominated by Panama City, Fort Walton Beach, and Pensacola - these are very heavy with military presence (Tyndall AFB, Eglin AFB and all its aux fields, Pensacola NAS), which tends to vote GOP. Don't be surprised to see a big swing for Trump when these areas are posted.

Some of those counties have not reported or are slow
It means Rs/Trump doing even better than what we see right now

 

[Joe Fan]

The truth is, he never had a lead in these states
Only in media polls, which are trash

 

[mchammer]

Some of those counties have not reported or are slow
It means Rs/Trump doing even better than what we see right now

I hope so! Also, the Hispanic and black voters going to Trump should add 1-2% pts for Trump. Will find out in 3 hours

 

[Joe Fan]

Clark County update

Reps 15,245 (+4,476)
Dems 10,769
Other 12,170
Total: 38,184​

Is it really going to happen?

Clark County now Rs 4.8k+

 

[mchammer]

In FL, Dems are holding out for +10 D in Indies and higher R to D crossover than vice versa. D’s are right if the D-leaning polling is correct. So, after all is said and done, a lot depends on which polling is correct.

 

[mchammer]

 

[LonghornCatholic]

What time riots start, what time COVID over?

 

[Horn2RunAgain]

Milwaukee is where the Democrats need a high turnout to offset rural votes.

Unfortunately it's quiet in flower mound also. We're here at the rec center, it's dead compared to the first week of early voting

 

[Garmel]

In FL, Dems are holding out for +10 D in Indies and higher R to D crossover than vice versa. D’s are right if the D-leaning polling is correct. So, after all is said and done, a lot depends on which polling is correct.

I don't see any of that happening. The independents have to be seeing what we conservatives are seeing in regards to the democrat nuttiness. The only crossovers I see that will go from red to blue are some seniors with the Covid fear but I don't see it approaching the amount of the black/hispanic crossover that goes our wayr.

 

[mb227]

Yes, other in Independent.

Hard to say without knowing a lot about local elections - Clark County is Las Vegas, where the Democrats have a huge voter advantage. Can't be good for them to be behind in today's in person vote, but a lot of voting was done already. I believe they had about a 50k lead in ballots statewide (remember, no votes have been counted, but you'd much rather have a lot of your ballots in that the other party).

Other areas will turn out heavy for the Republicans, have to see by how much, and if the independent split is enough to make up for the partisan advantage.

HAD a huge advantage. Lots of former casino and other service employees that lost work when Sisolak shut the State down and who left the area. Just how many remain is not precisely known...

And, there has been LOTS of discussions in that area over the loss of one of the best-negotiated health plans if Biden gets elected and successfully banished such health plans.