2020 Football Season Prediction

Thanks dukesteer for the comments. My thought is that after 3 years as head coach, Herman's doesn't get to rely on subjective assessments anymore. After a certain number of games, you are as good as your record.

He's been head coach for 40 Texas games, and has a record of 25-15, with an average of 5 losses per year. The pass defense last year was ranked 127th in the country, and 108th in total defense. These are not the indicators of superior talent or ability.

One of the more frequent phrases on this board has always been "talent". Texas always is supposed to have fantastic talent, with the only players with more talent than the current talented players are the incoming ones who have even more talent.

Then they play Baylor, and have to score a TD with one second left to only lose by two TD's instead of three. You have to wonder if Baylor even had their starters out there, or if they'd cleared the benches by then to allow everyone to say they'd played and beaten Texas.

There's no evidence that Texas has any better football players than most anyone else in the B12. Maybe they had more gold stars after their name coming out of High School, but that's a snapshot in time, and no longer applies. Save for a FG at the end of the game, Kansas beats Texas last year. These are not the marks of superior talent.

Texas does have the best QB in the B12 coming back, and a new DC who had success at Ohio State. So maybe he turns the defense around, but that's just a guess and a hope.

So all Herman's qualified for as of now is analysis bases on previous results, as there's no trend line moving up for Texas, unlike this time last year, with the regular season win against OU, and the Sugar Bowl win to hang a hat on.
 
I disagree Duck Dodgers because your not accounting for the Alamo Bowl win over Utah which was dominant, and the massive, massive injuries throughout the middle of 2019.
 
The Alamo bowl was a good win. Texas dominated Utah on both sides of the ball and won convincingly.

I tend to not include bowl games as they are such a different situation than the regular season. You're playing a team which may or may not play a similar style as you conference opponents do, which can either be bad, or for Texas good in that game, as Utah was a heavy run team, while Texas was 127th against the pass.

Teams have different levels of motivation for the game, and coaches do either a good or bad job of firing them up for it. Texas looked like it wanted to be at the Alamo bowl, Utah after flubbing the Pac championship game against Oregon looked like it didn't. Same with Georgia. That is not a knock on Herman - it's a compliment that he kept his team fired up and the other coaches didn't.

As mediocre as Herman has been for the regular season (25-15), he's been good at 3-0 for bowl games, and I would give him the benefit of doubt for a bowl game this year.

But Texas followed up the Texas Bowl with a loss to Maryland the next game, the next season. Texas followed up the Sugar Bowl win with a 5 loss season. There's no evidence a good bowl win carries anything over to the next season for Texas.
 
With twelve game schedule I had them at 9-3 presuming losses to LSU, OU and one other from a group of Iowa State/Okie State/TCU/Baylor with 8-4 really being on the table if they just went 2-2 amongst the group of 4 games that I see as lean Texas but could easily be losses. If I stick with my original thought then 8-2 or 7-3 makes most sense to me. Of course my heart wants to overrule my brain and say with Ehlinger and so many starters back 10-0 is going to happen.:hookem:
 
Duck Dodgers said:
The Alamo bowl was a good win. Texas dominated Utah on both sides of the ball and won convincingly.

I tend to not include bowl games as they are such a different situation than the regular season. You're playing a team which may or may not play a similar style as you conference opponents do, which can either be bad, or for Texas good in that game, as Utah was a heavy run team, while Texas was 127th against the pass.

Teams have different levels of motivation for the game, and coaches do either a good or bad job of firing them up for it. Texas looked like it wanted to be at the Alamo bowl, Utah after flubbing the Pac championship game against Oregon looked like it didn't. Same with Georgia. That is not a knock on Herman - it's a compliment that he kept his team fired up and the other coaches didn't.

As mediocre as Herman has been for the regular season (25-15), he's been good at 3-0 for bowl games, and I would give him the benefit of doubt for a bowl game this year.

But Texas followed up the Texas Bowl with a loss to Maryland the next game, the next season. Texas followed up the Sugar Bowl win with a 5 loss season. There's no evidence a good bowl win carries anything over to the next season for Texas.
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If only we could just play 10 bowl games or underdog games per year.
 
I say 8-2, beating ou in RRR and rematch w them in B12CG...outcome I cannot see clearly in my magic 8ball.
 
RainH2burntO said:
If only we could just play 10 bowl games or underdog games per year.
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I will stick with my 7-3. TCU and OU own us. We always lose one we are expected to win. It will be iowa state or Okie lite. Unless herman wakes up and decides to coach nothing changes. He needs to pay attention to coaching players instead of pampering them.
 
I do think statistics offer a better view of realistic expectations than gut feeling or the "eye test." But we should keep in mind that college teams have so much turnover that impacts success (much more than any professional sport).

Texas ranked 121st out of 130 teams in returning production in 2019. Link

For 2020 Texas is 21st. Link

I think we improve significantly over last year. Offense I expect to be about the same or a little better (I have a lot of faith in Yurcich). I have very little faith in Chris Ash, but just based on returning production I expect improvement in the defense.
 
p_town_horn said:
I do think statistics offer a better view of realistic expectations than gut feeling or the "eye test." But we should keep in mind that college teams have so much turnover that impacts success (much more than any professional sport).

Texas ranked 121st out of 130 teams in returning production in 2019. Link

For 2020 Texas is 21st. Link

I think we improve significantly over last year. Offense I expect to be about the same or a little better (I have a lot of faith in Yurcich). I have very little faith in Chris Ash, but just based on returning production I expect improvement in the defense.
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Why so little faith in Ash?
 
9-1
With Talent and Experience coming back we should go 10-0. And win B12. But I don't trust TH to keep them focused for all the games. He hasn't earned that trust yet. I hope he proves me wrong this season.
Really for me, anything less than 10-0 will be a disappointment.
With Excellent coaching and the team will be 10-0.
 
No crystal ball but my hunch is the Horns manage to go 9-1.

@ Frogs last year - they got a break with all the DB injuries and Eagles was held out didn't help. Frogs will travel to Austin - think the Horns take them.

ou - lost a lot of talent including QB but will have quality with less experienced talent to re-load. Horns rise to the challenge and win this game by a TD.

@ ISU & Bailer, @KSU - Horns win close games.

@ Okie Lite concerns me the most and is the possible loss I'm throwing out.

The outlier with TH is the tendency to lose a game you don't expect or give up a win you have at the end of the game to some fluke....
 
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247 took at stab at top 25 in the new universe

EftpV4yX0AAGg3h
 
Joe Fan said:
247 took at stab at top 25 in the new universe

EftpV4yX0AAGg3h
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All of the ACC teams on there are overrated except for Clemson.

I'd flip A&M and ND. We're probably around #10, either with OK State or Auburn flanking us in either direction.

UCF is going to flounder a little more this season, but I wouldn't be surprised if Cincy, Memphis, and SMU kept the AAC well-represented.
 
Horns11 said:
All of the ACC teams on there are overrated except for Clemson.

I'd flip A&M and ND. We're probably around #10, either with OK State or Auburn flanking us in either direction.

UCF is going to flounder a little more this season, but I wouldn't be surprised if Cincy, Memphis, and SMU kept the AAC well-represented.
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SMU still hasn't updated their schedule, but I'm guessing they won't be able to pad their record against Texas St and SFA. Will they still play play TCU? They could struggle against Houston, USF, or Temple so it's difficult to predict where they end up.
 
Horns11 said:
All of the ACC teams on there are overrated except for Clemson.

I'd flip A&M and ND. We're probably around #10, either with OK State or Auburn flanking us in either direction.

UCF is going to flounder a little more this season, but I wouldn't be surprised if Cincy, Memphis, and SMU kept the AAC well-represented.
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Will there be a Top 25 team with 5 losses?
More than 5?
 
RainH2burntO said:
FWIW (not much)
Here are ESPNs game by game predictions for UT.
(Spoiler...we win all but RRR and only 1.6% losers there)
I don't buy relying as heavily on analytics but whatever...Here it is....

ESPN predicts the Texas Longhorns schedule game-by-game
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I'm not sure where their analytics come from either. Yes Texas should be favored in every game except OU, but most of the %'s are way too high. Especially TCU and Baylor and certainly 94% is too high against a team Texas barely beat last year.
 
Poor aggy, they traded a schedule that was tailor made for a 10-2/11-1 type run for one that could easily be 6-4 because of the teams added and the change in when they play certain games.
 
FWHORN said:
Poor aggy, they traded a schedule that was tailor made for a 10-2/11-1 type run for one that could easily be 6-4 because of the teams added and the change in when they play certain games.
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Yeah, Aggies may be 8 in their conference.
 
caryhorn said:
How is ag rated ahead of the Horns?
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Anti-boycott? Doesn't matter much at the start, if you're a big name team, you can create your own adventure (just like the books!), based on how well you play. High rankings only matter for non-P5 squads, which need to show they belong at a top level all year.

Those percentages from ESPN (always get a kick out a forcast 3 months from now that's to the tenth of a percent) are pulled out of a hat like the rest of their forecasts, and they never do a hind cast to see how accurate they are. At least my Magic 8 Ball prediction is based on 3 years of actual game results.

It won't take long this season to get a feel for things - by the end of the OU game, a 4-0 record means Texas is humming and playoffs here we come. 3-1 keeps Texas in the game, especially if one of the three is OU. 2-2, with losses to both OU and TCU leads to another season like last year, and 7-3, maybe 6-4.
 
FWHORN said:
Poor aggy, they traded a schedule that was tailor made for a 10-2/11-1 type run for one that could easily be 6-4 because of the teams added and the change in when they play certain games.
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Just "poor aggy" is enough.
The reasons are self evident
 
At least Jimbo is using seemingly untraceable cash rather than cars that can be driven to other cities for four years.

See also certain TransAm and Cutlass driven to NFL, but never seen again in Brazos County
 
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