2018 Senate (& House)

[theiioftx]

At the end of the day, most independents will vote their pocketbook regardless of how the feel the President is as a human being.

The Dems are the best asset Republicans have. Trotting Pelosi and Schumer out as the leaders is great for Republicans.

Then having Maxine Waters, Sheila Jackson Lee and the hat wearing idiot in Florida on TV just adds to their misery.

 

[Joe Fan]

So this was before the SOTU. After the Democrat **** show those idiots put on it has to be even worse.

And we will see what they have to say once Americans have grown accustomed to the extra money in their paychecks from tax cuts. Something tells me they are not going to want to just turn around and give it back to Democrats

 

[Joe Fan]

 

[Joe Fan]

What are the chances he named a kid Dilley?

 

[Joe Fan]

Kathaleen Wall spent $6M running for the Ted Poe seat and could not even make the run off (which will be between Kevin Roberts and one-eyed former SEAL Dan Crenshaw). If you live anywhere near this district then it was hard to avoid her ads, both TV and radio.

One of her opponents alleged she voted for Hillary, which did not help her, but her biggest enemy was herself. Check out her speech here (shades of Rick Perry). It tough to imagine what big money was thinking when they decided to back her. She is so bad, she had to be a Dem plant in the R-primary. Must be nice to be as rich as Soros to the point you can light money on fire just for fun.

 

[Joe Fan]

What happened to Muh Blue Wave? Pretty funny how quickly the MSM dropped this story

Daily Kos view on Texas

"If we keep up tonight's pattern in every swing and lean R district, we will never retake the House and Trump will be president for life."​

heh

 

[Joe Fan]

Some Texas numbers --

Dems got 40.21% of the TX turnout (Senate race)
GOP 59.79%

Obama lost TX by 11 the first time
Lost 2012 by 16
Hillary lost 2016 by 9

In the 2006 primaries (the last Dem wave year), Dems had 44% of vote without putting in this much effort

Ted Cruz was unopposed but had more votes than all Dems in their primary combined

The actual numbers, of course, did not stop the NYT from continuing with its pre-determined narrative .....

 

[Mr. Deez]

Kathaleen Wall spent $6M running for the Ted Poe seat and could not even make the run off (which will be between Kevin Roberts and one-eyed former SEAL Dan Crenshaw). If you live anywhere near this district then it was hard to avoid her ads, both TV and radio.

One of her opponents alleged she voted for Hillary, which did not help her, but her biggest enemy was herself. Check out her speech here (shades of Rick Perry). It tough to imagine what big money was thinking when they decided to back her. She is so bad, she had to be a Dem plant in the R-primary. Must be nice to be as rich as Soros to the point you can light money on fire just for fun.

That might be the worst public speech I've ever heard a politician give. I'm no Rick Perry fan, but he sounds like friggin Winston Churchill compared to her.

 

[Phil Elliott]

That might be the worst public speech I've ever heard a politician give. I'm no Rick Perry fan, but he sounds like friggin Winston Churchill compared to her.

Just the sound of her voice is a turn-off. She sounds like she was taking puffs from a helium balloon during those awkward pauses.

 

[Joe Fan]

Muh Blue Wave had --

Dem Sen candidate Beto O’Rourke with 641,052 votes

Rep Sen candidate Ted Cruz with 1,315,455 votes​

 

[Musburger1]

I haven’t been following this thread but I came across an article explaining the Democrat strategy to win the House.
They are running several former CIA and ex military candidates (see article).

http://www.greanvillepost.com/2018/03/07/the-cia-democrats/

 

[UTChE96]

Democrats Release Tax Hike Plan

 

[Joe Fan]

 

[UTChE96]

Maybe she's a trans-ethnic. How dare you force your antiquated societal constructs upon her!

 

[Joe Fan]

Maybe she's a trans-ethnic. How dare you force your antiquated societal constructs upon her!

You are saying she is a trans?

 

[Joe Fan]

Clearview Research has the FLA Senate race:

Rick Scott (R) 43%
Bill Nelson (D) 41%

 

[Mr. Deez]

Anybody worried yet? This isn't supposed to happen to districts that you won by 20 points less than 18 months ago. Apparently the counting of votes isn't over yet, so Saccone could still pull this out, but this isn't supposed to be close. The GOP better do something to turnout its people. If we're in this position in November, Democrats will pick up 50 seats and retake the Senate.

 

[Joe Fan]

Anybody worried yet? This isn't supposed to happen to districts that you won by 20 points less than 18 months ago. ...

Been unable to follow this one much but wasnt this the guy who ran as pro-Trump and anti-Pelosi?

In any event, we just need a few more husbands telling their wives how to vote, per HRC

 

[Hideo Gump Jr.]

Been unable to follow this one much but wasnt this the guy who ran as pro-Trump and anti-Pelosi?

In any event, we just need a few more husbands telling their wives how to vote, per HRC

Just to set the record straight, my wife told me how to vote.

 

[UTChE96]

Republicans should be concerned at this point. Hopefully, Trump takes this as a wake up call to stop being a twitter troll and start acting like an adult. He is his own worst enemy.

I also think the latest spending deal that allows the deficit to balloon out of control certainly did not help energize their base that still includes a large number of fiscal conservatives.

 

[BrntOrngStmpeDe]

Anybody worried yet? This isn't supposed to happen to districts that you won by 20 points less than 18 months ago. Apparently the counting of votes isn't over yet, so Saccone could still pull this out, but this isn't supposed to be close. The GOP better do something to turnout its people. If we're in this position in November, Democrats will pick up 50 seats and retake the Senate.

I'm pretty worried. I think the anti-Trump backlash is going to be significant. While the substance of his policies would have created some of this, the Trump-style, demeanor and presentation is what has created the emotional wave that is getting these people to the polls. He undercut himself with his continued campaign style of being president. Hopefully Kennedy does retire soon because appointing two SCOTUS judges is about all we'll have to show for a Trump presidency.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Been unable to follow this one much but wasnt this the guy who ran as pro-Trump and anti-Pelosi?

That's a bit of an overstatement. He called for "new leadership" in the Democratic Party and wasn't an overt Trump hater - said he'd work with him "where he can." In other words, he ran as an independent, moderate Democrat. But that's pretty meaningless. He'll vote against Pelosi when the Democrats elect their leadership team again, but if she's their candidate for Speaker, he's not going go vote for Paul Ryan.

Republicans who want to explain away this pick-up will surely point out the fact that Lamb is an excellent candidate and that Saccone was subpar. This is all true. Lamb is a young (but doesn't look like a kid), sharp, well-spoken, and likable candidate who ran an excellent campaign. Saccone was a fairly unappealing old dude who wasn't going to excite anybody. However, that's not supposed to be enough to flip a district that went for Trump by 20 points. (The incumbent Republican congressman wasn't even challenged in 2016.) Saccone was a shabby candidate, but he wasn't a Roy Moore-type who was going to hemorrhage voters.

That district's PVI is R+10. It's not a swing district. Even with a strong candidate advantage, a Democrat isn't supposed to win a district like that. Six of Massachusetts' nine districts are closer than that district. Anyone have those districts on their list of likely Republican pick-ups? I doubt it.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Republicans should be concerned at this point. Hopefully, Trump takes this as a wake up call to stop being a twitter troll and start acting like an adult. He is his own worst enemy.

I also think the latest spending deal that allows the deficit to balloon out of control certainly did not help energize their base that still includes a large number of fiscal conservatives.

Yeah, the $1T we ran during the Great Recession was grossly excessive (even for a recession). However, running a $1T deficit when the economy is strong is absolutely indefensible. If we can't get the deficit under control now, then when the hell can we get it under control?

 

[Mr. Deez]

I'm pretty worried. I think the anti-Trump backlash is going to be significant. While the substance of his policies would have created some of this, the Trump-style, demeanor and presentation is what has created the emotional wave that is getting these people to the polls. He undercut himself with his continued campaign style of being president. Hopefully Kennedy does retire soon because appointing two SCOTUS judges is about all we'll have to show for a Trump presidency.

Yep, because if Democrats retake the Senate before he retires, they won't give a Trump nominee a vote for the same reason McConnell denied Merrick Garland a vote.

 

[Joe Fan]

oh boy

 

[Mr. Deez]

oh boy

It's damn close (less than 700 votes apart), and I wouldn't blame Saccone for wanting a recount. He could still win, but again, in this district, it shouldn't be anywhere near this close.

 

[ProdigalHorn]

Could part of the factor be that this was a special election which (if I got my info right) is only going to last through the next election? So is it a good barometer to say that the GOP is in trouble because they weren't that excited about going to the polls to elect someone they were going to have to re-elect again in six months?

 

[BrntOrngStmpeDe]

Could part of the factor be that this was a special election which (if I got my info right) is only going to last through the next election? So is it a good barometer to say that the GOP is in trouble because they weren't that excited about going to the polls to elect someone they were going to have to re-elect again in six months?

both valid points but I still think that the money spent and the fact that it was heavily GOP in the past outweigh the "mehhhh, it's only a 6 month seat" factor. I think the GOP is in trouble this next election and I think it can be laid at the feet of DJT style and rhetoric. DJT has alienated almost everyone and pissed on just about everyone that worked for him. He still hasn't learned that, while he can be the leader of the team, politics is still a team sport. He needs his team to play well also. If you crap all over your team, you aren't going to have a good season. You might have your own personal double-double every now and then but on the whole it undermines a successful run at the championship.

 

[I35]

It's damn close (less than 700 votes apart), and I wouldn't blame Saccone for wanting a recount. He could still win, but again, in this district, it shouldn't be anywhere near this close

Also he got outspent 5 to 1 from his opponent. He didn't raise money and he wasn't considered a great candidate.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Could part of the factor be that this was a special election which (if I got my info right) is only going to last through the next election? So is it a good barometer to say that the GOP is in trouble because they weren't that excited about going to the polls to elect someone they were going to have to re-elect again in six months?

It's too early to say they're "in trouble," but this doesn't bode well. Yes, it's true that it was a special election that will only last until November, and yes that could blunt enthusiasm. However, it only seemed to blunt Republican enthusiasm. Why is that? And I'll go back again to what I said before. It's a R+10 district. Short of a Roy Moore-style disaster in the Republican primary, this is supposed to be a pretty easy Republican hold - even with a subpar candidate and even in an off-year special election.