Women's Swimming/Diving to NCAAs

[mslonghorn12345]

Hey... some coverage of women's swimming/diving before Thursday's NCAA championships. Ok just a little coverage... but some nice interviews.


the link

 

[overseasbbfan1]

I am really looking forward to the NCAA meet. I don't know if the women have quite enough depth to compete for the title, but I think a top-three finish is definitely possible. Early in the season I was hopeful we might be in the mix for the championship but I think Arizona and Georgia have too many qualifiers...we have some great swimmers near the top in their respective events, but our secondary competitors didn't do as well as might have been hoped. Of course, if we end up winning - or finishing top three - in a lot of events we still might make things interesting. Actually, we would probably have to win quite a few events along with the divers doing extremely well and relays performing a ways above their seedings to even have a shot, but it will be a fun meet to follow regardless.

Since points are awarded to top 16 finishers in individual events, you can look at top 22 seeds in each event to determine those with best chance of scoring. Arizona has 31 top 22 seeds, GA is next with 23, Auburn 22, Cal 18, Stanford 17 and Texas with 15. These figures can be a little misleading; for instance, of Auburn's 22 seeds, only 7 are in the top eight of their respective events. And divers also come into play and this is where Texas makes up quite a bit of ground. We have three divers competing in one event and two each in the remaining two events. Stanford has two divers competing in all three events, but Arizona, Cal and Auburn qualified no divers. At first glance it would seem Georgia has the best chance of giving Arizona a run for the title, but, based on seedings, their relays aren't as strong. AZ has three relays seeded first and GA just one in the top three (and three seeded 6th or lower). California actually has 4 relays seeded top two so this will help them in the team standings as points are doubled in relays. Even though the Horns have a couple of relays seeded top four, they also have several ranked 9th or lower, but I think they will perform better than this.

Here is my best guess at final standings;

1. Arizona
2. Georgia
3. Texas
4. California
5. Stanford
6. Auburn

I think Auburn might actually squeeze past Stanford for 5th because the Cardinal only qualified 4 of 5 relays; they are the only top squad that won't be competing all five relay races. I think places 3rd-6th are interchangeable but I am giving the Horns 3rd because I think Brackin will have her squad ready.

Is there any way the Horns could win the title? Almost impossible; here's what would have to happen. Hershey, Chang and Bispo all win their respective events (Hershey seeded 4th in both 200 Fly and 400 IM and 5th in 200 IM; Chang seeded 3rd in 50 Free; Bispo seeded 5th in 200 Free and 7th in 100 Free), divers record at least 4 top-three finishes (out of a possible seven), and two relays finish 1st (400 FR seeded 2nd and 800 FR seeded 4th), with remaining three relays all finishing top-five. Of course the odds are almost zero of this happening, and even if it did AZ would probably have to under perform in quite a few events, but Brackin is a smart coach...Hershey is only competing in three individual events even though she qualified in five or six...this increases her chances of placing near the top in her events and racing fast in multiple relays.

The other thing to keep in mind is the top swimmers are usually competing in multiple events and relays, so if just one has an off-meet or is sick, the race could change completely. I recall a NCAA meet eight or nine years ago where this happened and it probably cost the Horns a national title. I think we missed winning by around 40 points but one of our top swimmers, an Australian (Rachel ??), got sick before the championships and only managed a few points in several events in which she was seeded near the top. I don't remember all of the details but I think there is a good chance we would have won the meet if she had been healthy. Of course no one likes to see this happen to any team, but the reality is anything is possible at the NCAA championships.

It should be an exciting meet!

 

[Glad2BeBack]

A top 3-5 finish would be incredible especially after a 14th place in 2008. It is mind boggling what coach Brackin has done with this program so quickly. This is a very young team and with the recruits coming this fall Texas will definitely be a contender. Good luck to our ladies, coach Brackin and the rest of the staff.