Why TDF silence on here?

[CJHorn]

Please keep the analysis coming. This observer is an enthusiastic but uninformed fan, especially this year with Lance back -- and back in form as well.

 

[Napoleon]

I'm guessing that it's because we're in a holding pattern until they get into the Alps. That's when this race will start. Since this board is basically pulling for one guy and one guy only (George Hincapie has been riding well for the guy who's won 4 stages, but still...)

We're waiting for the Contador/Armstrong battle in the Alps. And until then, we're just trying to get as much work done as possible.

 

[CJHorn]

Nice. Thx. for feedback.

I am growing very concerned that, deep within their beings, neither LA nor Contador has the capacity to become the "Beta" to the other's Alpha within this team.

 

[GarCiaRia]

Well put Napoleon!

 

[badexcuse]

Because of the route. Most uneventful trek through the Pyrenees that I can remember. Gets fun on Sunday. IMO, critical stages remaining.
15 - uphill finish on Cat 1 climb (Sun 7/19)
17 - four Cat 1 climbs (Tues 7/21)
18 - individual time trial (Thur 7/23)
20 - Finish up Mt Ventoux which will be one of the most classic finishes in TDF history (Sat 7/25)

Smart money is on Contedor, but I would not bet against LA. He appears is good shape, and he's highly motivated.

 

[WhiteH2O Horn]

Yeah, I think that Napolean hit on the head.

There's not much to analyze or discuss during these "transition" stages between mountain days. Astana is happy to have the yellow jersey easily within their grasp, but not having to ride hard to defend it on these stages. As long as no one who is a general classification threat tries to get up the road in a breakaway, Astana can let the teams with sprinters (and AG2R, the yellow jersey holders) do the lion's share of the work on the front. All they have to do is be aware, take care of their leaders, and try to stay out of trouble. The big show is coming...

While most people are waiting for the Alps to begin in earnest on Tuesday's Stage 16, interesting things could happen in the yellow jersey battle tomorrow (Stage 13) and Sunday's Stage 15.

Stage 13 has two 1st category climbs, the last one (Col du Firstplan) coming just 20km before the finish in Colmar. While a stage like this usually favors a small breakaway with riders that can climb well but are not GC threats, one or more of the GC guys could try to get some time with an attack here. I would think that Cadel Evans may try something here. He is a former mountain biker and descends pretty well. Lord knows after missing that selection in the peloton on the stage to La Grand-Motte and Silence-Lotto's poor team time trial the next day, he has to be aggressive somewhere soon if he wants to be a factor in this race.

On Sunday, they will have a mountain top finish on the 1st category Verbier. While this climb is not terribly long or steep, mountain top finishes are traditionally strong bait to those GC guys looking to make a statement and, of course, but time on their rivals. Probably not a place where the Tour will be won or lost, but I'd be very surprised not to see some fireworks from the big dogs on this climb, especially since it precedes a rest day.

As for the Contador vs Armstrong thing, I just want to see strongest, most deserving rider win. Regarding the comment about this entire board pulling for one rider to win, there's probably truth to that, but what do you expect? This is a Texas Longhorns board and there is a legendary Texan in the race. I think it would be cool to see Armstrong win again. It would be great spectacle and provide further inspiration for the cause of his foundation and the message of Livestrong, as well as possibly shutting up some of those who claim there is no way he won the other seven Tours clean.

At the same time, I don't get the ill will that is coming Contador's way. Sure, most people want to see Lance crush anyone in his way, but Contador is an amazing talent in his own right who deserves some respect. While his Tour win in 2007 was pretty much by default, because Rasmussen had him beaten before his team dismissed him a few days before reaching Paris in the yellow jersey, he has greatly improved his time trial ability and continues to show what an absolute monster he is in the mountains. His record shows him to be the best stage racer in the world right now. I have nothing bad to say about him. While we all know his attack on Stage 7 was specifically about trying to get the jersey and put time on Armstrong, I don't think it was that big of a deal.

Here's a topic for discussion: I know that Armstrong played the "following the team plan and sat on Evans' wheel during Contador's (unreal) acceleration" card, but I am curious to know if Lance was able to follow Contador's attack. I guess we'll know before too long. C'mon Johan, let 'em slug it out and see who gets the full support of the team.

Seriously, if Armstrong can hang with Alberto in the mountains into the third week of the race, then I give the advantage to Lance. With the Tour riding on a 40km time trial, then Mont Ventoux, where Lance keeps mentioning "unfinished business," I gotta give the nod to the old man. Of course, if Contador does his thing, goes off like he is capable of doing and drops Armstrong in the mountains, then Lance will be racing for pride and a podium spot. Barring unforeseen gremlins like crashes, mechanical failures, illness, etc, I think it's pretty apparent that one of these two wins the thing. It's going to be fun to see who else makes some noise. Too bad about Gesink from Rabobank crashing out so early. I thought he could do some damage in the high mountain stages. Here's hoping the brothers Schleck, Roman Kreuzinger, Cadel Evans, Carlos Sastre, Christian Vandevelde, and the Astana lieutenants help make things fun in the mountains.

 

[CJHorn]

Outstanding. I am going to be camping in the wilderness over the weekend stages [bad TDF planning by wife's relatives], but I wish to thank those who have contributed to this thread and the other threads coverning this excellent event.

 

[ed teach]

Pretty exciting stage today.
Contador may have established himself as the leader, 1min 33 lead on Armstrong.
Not sure Lance has what it takes this year.