Who will replace Bassar Ashad?

H

Horn6721

Hook'em
Do we have anyone to replace Bassar Ashad as leader of Syria?
and will he even be better?

or will we end up worse off like in Egypt
 
I believe we should get Vice President dick Cheney's advice on this. What is Ahmed chalabi doing these days? He could be a nice interim choice....
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That is the question isn't it. Sure as heck don't want to spend treasure and lives and end up with Iraq II or AFG (or what it will be in 2015 anyway).

As much as we want there to be peaceful and reasoned negotations to settle these sorts of things, it hardly ever seems to happen.

That's one of the reasons that I'm all for a swift attack that takes out 30-40% of the Syrian forces and cripples Assad. And basically make it known that it is up to the Syrians to do the rest and the rebuilding. Don't arm them, don't try to control the outcome, just back away. The only involvement we should have then is to keep Iran and Hezbollah from assuming the power vacuum. We can achieve most of that via no fly zones and limiting the access Iran has to Syria.
 
The Muslim Brotherhood is by far the most organized political force in the region. And even if they haven't been active in Syria itself for some time, I doubt the more secular-minded rebels can stand in their way.

I would say the most likely outcome, by far, is that (1) Syria will fall to the rebels, (2) the Muslim Brotherhood will call for democracy and elections, (3) they will brand Al Nusra and other AQ affiliates as anti-democratic and "extremists", which western observers will hail as evidence of the MB's moderation, (4) the MB will win said elections by a wide enough margin, (5) Turkey and Egypt will compete for influence over the Syrian MB, (6) Turkey will emerge as the winner of that competition, (7) under the influence of Turkish PM Erdogan, the Syrian MB will publicly announce its commitment to secular democracy, while quietly imposing sharia law and imposing dhimmi status upon the Alawites and non-Muslims, and (8) Turkey will use the Syrian MB to bolster Erdogan's anti-Israel credentials, much in the same way that Iran has used Assad up to now.

All of which is preparatory to an attempt, at some point in the next 20 years, to reconstitute the Caliphate under the aegis of the MB. If that is completed successfully, then the resources could, presumably, be brought together for the purpose of the final destruction of Israel.
 
It's amazing to me that we have let Castro do as he pleases in Cuba for a very long time now but can't seem to stay out of these countries which are not even remotely close to us, have no trade value to speak of and nothing good ever comes out of our interventions.
 
I nominate President Obama.

He could be a genuie peace maker in the region and could end the long-standing conflict between Israel and neighboring regions. Might even bring Iran into the conversation and normalize relations with the West.

I honestly think he's more suited to sitting in a high office chair there, than here.

In that sense there really is a there there.
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All I know is that the minority groups in Syria will suffer greatly, especially the Alawites. The violence won't stop with the end of the current regime. There's too much pay back for that.

Also, I am not sure that Syria will cooperate with Turkey. There is too much history and ill will there. I would more expect that there would be territorial disputes between Syria and Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon, and Israel.
 
We may not know for sure how a rebel led regime will govern but we certainly have a ton of current messes on which to form an opinion on what will happen when islamists take over. Remember Hillary thinks Assad is a ' reformer"

McCain's idea of either arming the rebels ( which he has called for for a long time but now it may be too late) airstikes against Assad's forces and helping the refugees is almost identical to what SecDef Panetta has called for
 
BI
I am not at all in favor of doing anything in Syria

ANYTHING

I was just pointing out that the things McCain suggested are not different from any of the suggestions many Dems floated around including the SecDef.

You say we won't know if a new regime will be better than Assad. I am saying recent history of changes in other countries suggest things will not be better and likely will be worse for US and other Western nations We know the rebels are being supported by extremists .
Nothing good will come of this.
so we should just stay the f out of it
 
Here's a pretty good synopsis of the situation in Syria as it currently stands:In reply to:
 
I have read similar things by other authors. I think what is happening in the ME in general is that the post WWI set up is crumbling. A modern mask was imposed on a traditional/tribal face and now the mask is coming off.

One author I read expects some Sunni group to gain power and then start to compete with Turkey for land along their border. We'll see.
 
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