Perry is likely as good as gone. He will likely fold after this weekend. It is doubtful that Gingrich will have to pose this question to our Governor Perry again.
With Santorum, it will depend on his showing in South Carolina. If he finishes a weak 4th, behind Ron Paul, his ability to raise money will dry up and his prospects going forward will dwindle rapidly. If that happens, he will be hard pressed to continue past the Florida primary on 1/31. And he does not appear to have the cash to compete in Florida.
Of course Ron Paul's supporters are their own little group. There does not appear to be much consideration of other candidates by most Ron Paul supporters, or much consideration of Ron Paul by most Republicans. Paul will continue to run his insurgent protest candidacy, although his percentage of the vote will probably fall off some from here on out. The states of Iowa and New Hampshire do not appear to be indicative of his support nationwide (see national poll numbers, below).
Gingrich apparently has money to go on as a result of some recent large donations. And he is expected to do well in South Carolina, with an outside chance to actually win it. Needless to say, he is going to stay in the race, especially with the prospect of Santorum and Perry dropping out looking like it could happen possibly within a matter of days.
Here is the national poll averagehttp://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep.../republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html, for those who are interested:
Romney 34.4
Gingrich 16.8
Santorum 14.8
Paul 14.2
Perry 7.4
If Santorum and Perry leave, that vote will largely go to Gingrich, with Romney also getting some of it as well. Ron Paul will get almost none of it. But as the numbers show, there is enough of a vote there to make Gingrich competitive with Romney as soon as that happens.
Although Gingrich will not absorb all of Santorum and Perry's supporters, hypothetically assuming that he did, that would immediately give Gingrich 38.4% and the lead over Romney in the national polls. Of course Romney will get some of this vote too. But as the numbers show, this race could well be on the verge of becoming competitive in a hurry.
And both Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney know all of this quite well.
With Santorum, it will depend on his showing in South Carolina. If he finishes a weak 4th, behind Ron Paul, his ability to raise money will dry up and his prospects going forward will dwindle rapidly. If that happens, he will be hard pressed to continue past the Florida primary on 1/31. And he does not appear to have the cash to compete in Florida.
Of course Ron Paul's supporters are their own little group. There does not appear to be much consideration of other candidates by most Ron Paul supporters, or much consideration of Ron Paul by most Republicans. Paul will continue to run his insurgent protest candidacy, although his percentage of the vote will probably fall off some from here on out. The states of Iowa and New Hampshire do not appear to be indicative of his support nationwide (see national poll numbers, below).
Gingrich apparently has money to go on as a result of some recent large donations. And he is expected to do well in South Carolina, with an outside chance to actually win it. Needless to say, he is going to stay in the race, especially with the prospect of Santorum and Perry dropping out looking like it could happen possibly within a matter of days.
Here is the national poll averagehttp://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep.../republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html, for those who are interested:
Romney 34.4
Gingrich 16.8
Santorum 14.8
Paul 14.2
Perry 7.4
If Santorum and Perry leave, that vote will largely go to Gingrich, with Romney also getting some of it as well. Ron Paul will get almost none of it. But as the numbers show, there is enough of a vote there to make Gingrich competitive with Romney as soon as that happens.
Although Gingrich will not absorb all of Santorum and Perry's supporters, hypothetically assuming that he did, that would immediately give Gingrich 38.4% and the lead over Romney in the national polls. Of course Romney will get some of this vote too. But as the numbers show, this race could well be on the verge of becoming competitive in a hurry.
And both Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney know all of this quite well.
