What exactly is Obama's bluff?

I'm starting to think that he actually does believe that if we hit the debt ceiling, we won't be able to pay social security - or maybe he knows that if it's up to his office, they'll pay other government salaries, stiff the entitlements and blame the republicans.
 
I think there is a political strategy guiding Obama's actions. Consider:

1. Obama realizes he has been a failure and is increasingly unpopular. To stay in power he has to do something radical.
2. If the Republicans stick to their guns (absolutely no tax increases), the debt ceiling will not be raised.
3. The government shuts down, workers are furloughed, and entitlement pay is aborted.
4. Obama usurps Congressional power (illegally), unilaterally raising the debt ceiling, blaming Republicans for starving Americans for the sake of a few millionaires.
5. The press sides with Obama
6. The Republicans don't dare start impeachment proceedings as the millions who were temporarily shut off from work and pay would riot, now fully understanding the effects of running a balanced budget.
7. The executive power held by the Presidency has now been expanded to where virtually all major decisions and policy can be enacted without Congressional approval. Congress is merely an impotent figurehead.

First of all, Obama does not fear impeachment. If this strategy is successful - reversing public sentiment which now is against him toward Republicans - he could possibly win reelection. More importantly, by blatantly bypassing the Constitution without consequence, Obama elevates his status to a Caesar. The precedent of acting unilaterally without Congressional input goes one step farther than the Presidential decision to bomb Libya.

Here's what we could here a short time after an August 2nd shutdown. It seems more and more like a possibility as each day passes. How a President become Caesar and a Republic dies. My revised speech.

My fellow Americans,

It is with grave alarm that I come before you this evening. As you know, Congress has deliberated for more than two months in efforts to forge a resolution to our mounting debt situation. Spending is out of control and revenue at current levels is insufficient to generate the services and meet the obligations necessary to fulfill the promises both made to both our citizens and creditors. In order to achieve a resolution, I showed the other side I was ready to compromise. Even though many in my party oppose entitlement reform, I reached out to the Republicans and agreed to make changes in order to reach an agreement that would shave trillions of dollars off of the deficit and allow the debt ceiling to be raised. But when it was time for the Republicans to compromise, they chose to block the process. Look, I don't want anyone's taxes to be higher. But let me be clear. Without additional revenue, we cannot provide the services millions of hurting Americans require in order to get through the hard times ahead.

Last week, all non-essential government functions ceased as did many essential government functions. Millions of Americans who have worked all their lives did not receive their Social Security checks. Medicare payments stopped and medical services have been curtailed throughout the country. Millions of employees have been furloughed leaving their families without income to pay the rent or buy groceries.

This cannot go on. Not on my watch. This evening, I'm authorizing the Treasury Department to raise the debt ceiling. In order to offset the added liabilities, I've recommending that Congress increase taxes on the small portion of our population that has benefited financially as a result of our free market system. For those individuals with high incomes, often more than a million dollars annually, adding a small percentage to what they pay back isn't going to set them back.

As I've said, I don't want anyone to pay more taxes. But this is a time for shared sacrifice. Those of us that fortunate enough to have discretionary income should be proud to know the small sacrifice they will be called to make will help get our country back on its feet.

We now face a fiscal emergency which threatens the very fabric of our nation. About 150 years ago, President Lincoln called on our country make a great sacrifice in order to heal a schism that divided our nation into north and south. Today that schism is between rich and poor. I'm calling on all us to work together, and I hope our fellow Republicans in Congress will do the right thing and follow through on my recommendations. No one will starve on my watch. Good Evening.
 
He will go back and tell more lies on CBS/ABC. Making the GOP look worse than they are(which is hard to do).

The GOP will sit on their hands and whine about how mean the President is.
 
not to sound overly dramaric, Mus, but if Obama pulls the trigger in say, mid-Aug, to raise the debt ceiling to insure millions of Americans get their SS checks, Americans won't give a damn about the constitutionality of that action.

Even the Republicans aren't stupid enough to let people starve and have our 401Ks wiped out for the sake of Constitutionality and then pursue an impeachment for such action.
 
Yo, that is my point. Thus the cowardly, treasonous offer put forth by McConnell the other day. If the Republicans actually follow McConnell's lead, Obama wouldn't have to usurp Congressional power. Hell, the Congress is willing to just give it away!

But I don't think Obama wants to ACCEPT this power because it wouldn't help him politically (for the upcoming election). But if a shutdown occurs and pain is inflicted on the American public, Obama can then TAKE this power unilaterally - ostensibly to rescue the public - he can then gain public approval for in essence becoming a dictator. And at this point, he has nothing to lose.
 
RickysRun, Obama's poll numbers are dramatically down. He fully understands that. He also realizes the economy isn't going to recover no matter what he does or doesn't do which means his poll numbers will continue to decline.

So what do you do? You paint the Republican party to be completely bought off by wealthy, corporate interests. (Although this is true, it's also true of Obama, but it is the public perception which is key). The result is people see themselves losing their jobs, homes, and benefits, but then Obama steps in to save the people. It's politically brilliant.

Right now, it's a PR game. Obama wants to show the public that he's trying to go the extra mile to find a solution, but the Republicans just won't yield. O'Connell's offer is basically treason, so there may be enough opposition within the Republican party that Congress won't back O'Connell. If however, the Republicans will go for O'Connell's offer, Obama must then come up with a reason why it's not acceptable. Too little cuts, etc.
 
MichTex, the polls you pointed to do indicate a steady state, but with disapproval numbers that high, in the mid 40s, it can't be very comforting. I've read contradictory headlines over the past few weeks where the findings were Obama would lose against "generic Republican" if the election were today.
In reply to:
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to raise the debt ceiling to insure millions of Americans get their SS checks, Americans won't give a damn about the constitutionality of that action.
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Constitutionally, ss payments should be made regardless of the debt cealing issue since those funds are not part of the general fund. Obama will be creating a constitutional crisis if he acts recklessly. we will be like russia during its fall when every general picked sides with his own division to back him up.
 
Why do people think that when we reach the "debt limit" that we're suddenly not able to function as a country? So much misinformation out there. With $2.2 trillion in revenue, there is enough to fund SS, Medicare/Medicaid, and have $1 trillion left over. The problem is that after funding the aforementioned entitlements, there is $2.5 trillion left to be funded. If you pay interest on the debt and defense, it's all gone. Now you have 44.5 million people on food stamps without benefits and another 1 million or so federal employees on unpaid furlough. Private companies with government contracts have to cut back because those federal agencies no longer are funded to payout contracts.

Could the country survive that? On paper maybe. In reality, the social mood would change quickly with riots and crimes escalating.

Why do you think McConnell showed he was ready to cave the other day? He understands that. Plus he's a chickenshit. And then again, he's loyal to Wall Street banks. But I digress.
 
I think many of you are making it more complicated than it is. I think BO still thinks he is perceived nationally like he was on election day. He thinks he can go on TV and inspire the voters to turn against the repubs. I think he is dead wrong. I think he is losing the middle 20% and that 20% wins and loses all elections.

I think he is forgetting the midterms results.

I also think this is typical posturing and a deal will be done which changes practically nothing but they will all shake hands at a job well done.
 
Yo- You may be right and I agree that the majority of the country wants some tax increases. However, they want spending cuts more. It is a tight rope that BO is walking. He says publicly he wants both but, from what I read, the talks broke down when the repubs tried to make him be specific on the spending cuts. He wouldn't or couldn't do it.

This is not directed at BO solely (but he certainly ran on an open and transparent platform) but I would really like to see exactly what the proposals are. There are a few repub proposals that are very specific. They might be bad, but at least they are out there. We need a written document that we can evaluate from the dems that specifies the cuts in spending they are proposing and the tax increases they are proposing.

As for taxes, at this point I would favor a rescission of the Bush cuts for everyone, not just the wealthiest. Or a rescission for those making over $500K and a sales/gas tax on everyone. Everyone has to help. Illegals, tourists, rich and poor. You can always amend the tax code to give a little back to the absolute poorest.

A 2% sales tax would generat a ton of money and, I do not think it would really hamper the economy at all.
 
The child tax credit is phased out once gross income passes a certain threshold. In other words, by removing the credit, the tax burden increases for the middle class and poor (the poor actually receive refundable tax credits called additional child tax credit if they have no tax liability) and remains the same for wealthy filers with children.

I'm not saying its right or wrong that the tax credit exists, just that removing the credit would have a punitive effect on moderate and poor filers with children while the removal of the credit would not impact wealthy filers with children.

On the other hand, illegals that file under ITINs often claim many dependents and receive nice refunds courtesy of the additional child tax credit. Remove this credit and the illegals are out of luck.
 
just to add on that child tax credit issue:

the top nonpayer threshold in 1997 was $17,500
the top nonpayer threshold in 2010 was $50,250

before you claim "what about inflation?", the 1996 number adjusted for inflation would be $23,953. So,it still has doubled in 13 years.

see table 1 on the link. The Link

that massive increase of Americans not paying any Federal Income Tax has occurred mostly under the GOPs watch and mostly from tax policy championed and passed by a GOP controlled Congress.
 
Michele Bachmann should set him straight! Although to be fair, Yiddish is not Ms. Bachmann's first language.

The Link <---"choot-spa"
 
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