What are the Marlins thinking??

[Chest Rockwell]

For a team that went a surprising 84-77 last year, they seem to be unloading some nice talent for unproven players. They dealt Mike Jacobs (32 HRs last year), Josh Willingham (good combo of power & OBP) and (although a head-case) a middle of the rotation lefty (S.Olsen). I don't really consider Emilio Bonifacio, Leo Nunez and 2 minor-leaguers as fair value for those 3. I can see moving the players, it just seems like they could have got more for them. More importantly, they're breaking up a team that obviously had pretty good chemistry last year. WTF?

 

[Beau Vine]

MLB.com


That's a bizarre trade. Olsen is only 24 and already has had two good seasons in the majors. Guess they don't want to pay him in arbitration...

Bonifacio is blazing fast, but that's about it. It's the second time he has been traded in the last year.

The other two guys are only 19, and neither made Washington's Top 10 Prospects list last year.

 

[spystud13]

From Keith Law, ESPN Insider, on the Nats' trade:

"The Marlins moved two players in a salary dump, trading Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham to the Nationals, who are in a perfect position to roll the dice on left-hander Olsen while receiving a big upgrade offensively from outfielder Willingham. It's an easy win for Washington, but Florida's only major gain may be salary relief.

Willingham is a bat without a clear position and adds to the Washington outfield logjam to some degree, but he is just the type of hitter the Nationals need in their lineup. Willingham is solid at the plate, with a short path to the ball and the ability to drive the ball the other way, but his only above-average tool (or skill) is his plate discipline. His ability to get on base with average power means he can play every day in an outfield corner, but he isn't going to be a star there unless he flukes into a 30-homer season. Given how much trouble Washington had scoring runs in 2008, he's absolutely an upgrade and likely to be a good value in arbitration, a process that underpays OBP and overpays bulk production. His arrival probably dooms Wily Mo Pena to the bench and could put a dent in Austin Kearns' playing time as well.

Olsen was a high-upside power arm, but his velocity took a big hit this year, dropping from the low-to-mid 90s to the upper 80s, although he rebounded late in the year and was touching 94 again in September. His slider still has decent bite, but it's slower and a little less sharp than it was two years ago, and he has come to rely more heavily on his changeup, a fringe-average pitch at best that is not effective against right-handed hitters. It's a sell-high moment for Florida, considering Olsen isn't likely to come close to repeating his 2008 ERA of 4.20 -- his RA was a much less attractive 4.73 -- but at the same time it's a potential upside play for Washington with the hope that Olsen's velocity rebound in September is a sign of things to come. Left-handers with Olsen's stuff when he's good are very hard to come by. One thing to bear in mind is that Olsen has had problems with alcohol and with his behavior in the past, although he apparently stayed out of trouble this season.

The deal works for the Nationals because they gave up so little. In exchange for Olsen and Willingham, Florida received one inexpensive big leaguer and a pair of short-season prospects. Emilio Bonifacio projects as a utility player because he can move around the infield, playing plus defense at second, and perhaps fill in as a center fielder due to his plus speed. However, he doesn't project to hit for much power and his instincts at the plate aren't good. Florida hasn't had much luck improving the plate discipline of its players, and that also doesn't bode well for an overaggressive hitter like Bonifacio.

Jake Smolinski has a good swing that's geared for contact, but he lacks a clear everyday position. He can play left but lacks the power to be more than a fringy regular there, and he didn't adapt well to second base this year. He also had major knee surgery this month, repairing tears to his MCL and ACL, and will be out into 2009.

P.J. Dean is an aggressive strike-thrower with a solid-average fastball and a below-average curve that you could see improving to average, but he's also an undersized right-hander without much velocity projection and is probably four years away from having big league value. It's not much of a prospect return for the Marlins."


From him on the Jacobs' trade:

"I addressed this briefly in chat Thursday, but it's worth reiterating: The Royals' trade for Mike Jacobs was a profoundly wrongheaded move.

Jacobs should not get regular playing time from a major league club, period. The fact that the Royals looked at him and thought, "Wow, everyday first baseman!" is terrifying, because it's so wrong. Jacobs:

• Is a horrendous on-base guy. He posted a .299 OBP in 2008, and even that was inflated by 10 intentional walks. Take those out and his OBP drops to .285. In the National League, no less. Players who make outs in over 70 percent of their plate appearances can't play every day in a corner spot unless the team's goal is to score as few runs as possible.

• Has a massive platoon split. In 338 career plate appearances against left-handed pitching in the majors, Jacobs is hitting .235/.275/.414. He's not any great shakes against right-handers -- his OBP against righties, removing intentional walks, was just .297 in 2008 -- but he is useless against lefties.

• Is a terrible defensive first baseman, possibly the worst in baseball. He has bad hands and no range and is bad enough that he probably needs to DH.

Acquiring Jacobs is a bad idea for any team, but the Royals were historically bad in an area where Jacobs is himself very, very bad. The 2008 Royals were just the third AL team since 1931 to finish a season with fewer than 400 walks drawn. Jacobs just makes a serious problem worse.

For the privilege of burning a roster spot on Jacobs, the Royals will pay him between $2 million and $3 million this year in arbitration while they have to find a platoon partner for him and pay that player as well, to say nothing of the higher salaries he'll earn in 2010 and 2011. (In fact, several industry sources told me they expected the Marlins would have non-tendered Jacobs in December.) They also added to a positional logjam; Billy Butler needs regular playing time and needs to DH, Ryan Shealy is still hanging around and is a good bet to outproduce Jacobs for less money, and Kila Ka'aihue just posted a combined .314/.449/.628 line between Double- and Triple-A. He's not a great athlete and he's going to struggle some against better pitching, but Jacobs struggles against all pitching and Ka'aihue could top a .300 OBP in his sleep. That's before we consider Alex Gordon's struggles at third base and the chance that he'll end up at first. Jacobs is merely an intestinal obstruction in the digestive system of the Royals.

The player the Marlins received in return, Leo Nunez, is, in scouting parlance, "a guy." He can pitch in a big-league pen. He might grow up to be an eighth inning guy, but probably not. He costs nothing and can give you 60-70 decent innings. He throws strikes with a low-90s cutter, will flash a four-seamer up to 94-95, and throws a fringy slider; his changeup is poor and lefties hit him hard, although his arm slot might be all right for a splitter. He's under control for four more years and should be a good value for at least the first three even if he never develops a true swing-and-miss pitch.

Nunez is not a star, but he has value; the Marlins got that value for a player they were probably going to discard in two months, while the Royals just miscalculated badly and are threatening to exacerbate the biggest offensive problem in 2008, their lack of patience."