Weekly Prediction Contest Scoring Options (Poll Included)

Which Scoring Option Do You Want?

  • Current Method

    Votes: 6 35.3%

  • Include MOV and Point Total with Current Method

    Votes: 11 64.7%
  • Total voters
    17
  • Poll closed .
militaryhorn

militaryhorn

Prediction Contest Manager
Here is a comparison between Week 1 Results for the current scoring and if I include MOV and Point Totals for scoring.

I included a poll to determine if we should change to the new way or keep it the old way. Poll closes in 5 days. Click on image to expand it and see it better.

Those of you who participate in the weekly contest please vote to decided how I proceed, thanks.

Weekly Predictions Overall Standings Option.jpg
 
It looks like the first method ranks everyone solely by margin of victory and only uses total combined score as a tiebreaker. That doesn't seem right, because then if the real score of a game is 21-17, then a guess of 63-59 is considered closer than a guess of 20-17.

It looks like the second method is just [MOV difference]*2 + [Total Points difference]? That seems reasonable, although maybe a penalty of 7-14 points for getting the wrong winner should be assessed too?

If you're gonna make a season contest, maybe a bonus for getting the score exactly, such that you can even score in the negative since this is like golf where lower score is better? And in that case, you'd probably want a hard cap on the number of points someone can get, so that anyone not picking for a given game gets that many points automatically.
 
Statalyzer said:
It looks like the first method ranks everyone solely by margin of victory and only uses total combined score as a tiebreaker. That doesn't seem right, because then if the real score of a game is 21-17, then a guess of 63-59 is considered closer than a guess of 20-17.

It looks like the second method is just [MOV difference]*2 + [Total Points difference]? That seems reasonable, although maybe a penalty of 7-14 points for getting the wrong winner should be assessed too?

If you're gonna make a season contest, maybe a bonus for getting the score exactly, such that you can even score in the negative since this is like golf where lower score is better? And in that case, you'd probably want a hard cap on the number of points someone can get, so that anyone not picking for a given game gets that many points automatically.
Click to expand...
The current method is strictly point differential and total points is tie breaker.

The proposed method includes MOV and Total Points (if your combined predicted Total Points is 55 and the actual Total Points is 58 then you get 3 points added to your score ranking).

MOV is calculated as follows based on Sangre Nanarjada's recollection from previous years:

Margin of victory was calculated as an absolute value. I helped Dio with the old formula.
Let's see if I can remember how we did it.

Example:
REAL OUTCOME
Texas 20, opponent 10

Contestant A picks Texas 17, opponent 7
Contestant B picks Texas 40, opponent 30
Contestant C picks Opponent 20, Texas 10

Contestant A has 6 points (3 off for Texas score, 3 off for opponent score, correct MOV)
Contestant B has 40 points (20 off for Texas score, 20 for opponent, 0 for MOV)
Contestant C has 40 points (10 off for Texas score, 10 off for opponent score and 20 off for MOV)
Low point scorer is the winner, and the calculation of MOV punishes Contestant C for his incorrect pick.

MOV for contestant C is figured this way... Pick was Texas to "win" by (-10) points. Texas actually wins by (+10) points. Difference between those two numbers is 20. Envision a number line if it helps.

Hope this helps.
 
Can I vote that I don't really care because this is all for fun and distraction away from whatever bothers me? I'm good for whatever everyone else thinks is important. :hookem:
 
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