I think Memphis is the least likely to reach San Antonio and not just because they are in our region. They have been mopping up on cupcakes the last 15 or so games and then played the conference tournament on their home floor. Plus they suck from the line.
I don't even think they make it to the regional final.
The point is really that while the other #1 seeds may have more games against rpi 50-100, there isn't that much difference in the number of games UNC, KU, and Memphis played against tourney teams or significant tourney threats.
Games against rpi top 16 (and 17-30 in parentheses)
UNC played Duke twice (and Clemson 3 times and BYU and Kent State). KU played Texas twice (and Oklahoma and USC). Memphis played Tennessee and Georgetown (and UConn, Gonzaga, and Oklahoma and USC).
I agree that Memphis's conference had little to challenge it, however, if it had couple of rpi 20-50 teams instead of nothing but patsies in addition to UAB, Houston, and UTEP, what would we be seeing, a 32-2 Memphis or a 31-3 Memphis instead of a 33-1 Memphis?
And still a Memphis with an 8-1 record against tournament teams.
I think Memphis is the weakest No. 1 since they had the weakest schedule, but who the hell knows. Many thought Texas was the weakest No. 1 in 2003, yet the Longhorns were the only top seed to advance to the Final Four.
UCLA has the easiest path to the Final Four and is the most battle tested of the group, IMHO. Check the health of Kevin Love though before submitting your final bracket.
I too think Memphis goes down to Michigan State. Michigan State is always a good bet in the tourney because no one sees the type of physical, well-coached ball MSU plays.
I cant believe that many of you are picking Mich St.
Pittsburgh will take out MSU and maybe Memphis.
Memphis has played a decent OOC schedule, better than most think. But i think their conf schedule is sooo weak that is does hurt them but only minimally. Tenn game wasnt too long ago and they did get tested by UAB a couple of weeks ago i think. People make fun of Memphis about free throw shooting but we arnt that good outselves.
Nothing defines Sweet 16 loss like Pittsburgh basketball. They've lost in that round five of the last six years.
Besides, if I were Pitt, I'd be focusing on Oral Roberts. Pitt just got done playing four games in four days in New York and is ripe for an ambush by Scott Sutton's crew.