War This Summer
- Thread starter Gylcomer
- Start date
Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
That would be a disaster for the whole world. The leaders of both countries need to do everything possible to avoid it. It is the time for de-escalation not sabre-rattling.
China, Russia, Iran, North Korea..all at once…vs the West. CCP is requisitioning private, commercial ships in preparation for army invasion now.
I really hope they don't start a giant war.
Perhaps they are thinking it's now or never, and we (USA) currently have weak Executive Branch leadership + other military and financial commitments. We're as spread out as butter on the Texas toast.
You mean an invasion of Taiwan, right?
They could give it a shot (invade Taiwan). They'll likely have some big problems getting large numbers of troop carriers to Taiwan without being sunk. Anti-ship missiles, fighters, bombers, and the unseen submarines that go pretty much wherever they want over there undetected. And they (Red China) really suck as operators, and in general. But, they do have massive numbers...
It is now or never. They are going to fall demographically in a decade anyway. At this point they couldn’t care less about their economic future.
And they think the West will back down due to current political weakness.
That is the problem; just like Russia in Ukraine - an unlimited supply of troops.
If they're relying on Russian subs to (partially) neutralize our subs to get to Taiwan with lots of big troop haulers intact, they should have done this in the late 1980s. Russia's fleet is broken, loud, and in desperate need of repairs. They could still cause some damage, but they're no match.
Plus, subs are just one part of the equation. Aircraft, missiles, and even shore batteries of artillery would make China's prospects very dicey at best.
Plus, subs are just one part of the equation. Aircraft, missiles, and even shore batteries of artillery would make China's prospects very dicey at best.
Interesting timing you are providing. Football season makes a lot of sense - Biden’s presidency would be at its weakest point and the nation in election waryness (made up word I’m sure). I’ve been fearful of some CCP aggression for the past two years but praying for some reason to rule the day. The situation we have right now in Israel should be enough for sane adults to demonstrate restraint. Yet I doubt it.
That’s the reason they are requisitioning private ships. They can get there in hours before we can do much
Yeah, but they have to cross water.
Consider the Battle of Britain in WW2. Germany couldn't cross a skinny channel.
The new Axis is spreading us thin
We wouldn’t act quickly enough..especially the current administration.
Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
The US regime is spreading itself thin chasing ghosts that have nothing to do with American safety.
Fishing boats, big yachts, etc. would likely get torn apart by shore batteries. It's a lot more difficult to pull something like this off than most people realize.
Take that with a grain of salt. Some of the ICBMs have been converted to conventional warheads and reprogrammed to Bejing. That isn't a part of the war games.
I'm so many years removed from all this that I don't know what we're doing over there now.
But your premise assumes we don't already have assets in place operating on some vague and general orders to the Captains to patrol in certain waters and take care of business, using their (broad) discretion. Who knows? There are many possibilities.
p.s. and it doesn't take long to receive a radio transmission.
The batteries would be under attack…from what I understand there would be many ships getting through. CCP Air Force would cover the sky.
The only reason that I entered the prediction contest the last two years was so that some of you might listen when I make a more serious prediction. I really hope I’m wrong. If this happens…and I’m only a 65%..there will be a depression. I would really rather keep my more depressing predictions to myself. It’s not easy. I don’t like the responsibility and I don’t like drawing attention to myself. But a storm is coming.
They'd be very lucky to get 1/3 of their ships/boats through. Their large troop haulers will almost certainly be sunk. They may be able to deliver a small % of the troops that embarked from Mainland China. Note, that's still a lot of men, but..........
.........then they'd face entrenched Taiwan troops and artillery operating out of protected caves and bunkers. Next, they have to re-supply whatever troops they are able to land with dwindling #s of ships and aircraft. Taiwan is mountains, jungles, and urban. Not good for the attackers; good for the defenders--meaning a quick and easy victory is unlikely even if the Communists were able to land a good % of their troops. For anything more than a week or two--supplies become critical. Within a week, all the subs in Pearl and SD will have been scrambled and over there sinking supply ships. If the Communists were even able to land a large # of soldiers, it would likely become a supply battle -- think a giant Guadalcanal. The USN is very good at that.
A large scale amphibious assault is an extremely difficult mission to pull off. It's amazing we were able to do it on D-Day.
Who knows, but I'd put Red China's success probability at around 10% (assuming we help out Taiwan). Could happen, but it's unlikely.
Chop,
CCP believes they are in a fight for their very existence. Putin as well. They don’t care about their losses at all. They also believe that we might back down. Our administration won’t move fast enough…and maybe on purpose. If a war starts the current administration probably believes it helps them win the election if they would drag out the resistance. They will do anything win this next election
CCP believes they are in a fight for their very existence. Putin as well. They don’t care about their losses at all. They also believe that we might back down. Our administration won’t move fast enough…and maybe on purpose. If a war starts the current administration probably believes it helps them win the election if they would drag out the resistance. They will do anything win this next election
Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
I don't think that will protect Taiwan from an invasion though.
Also, how do you know they haven't?
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