UT's attrition last 4 years

H

hornpharmd

5,000+ Posts
There has been some discussion regarding attrition and how much we get year to year. I took a look back at the 05-08 classes to see what we have lost during this stretch. Only 2 guys remain from the 04 class (Shipley and Ulatoski) so I didn't include this class. The 05 class is mostly gone but has lost 6 to the NFL or graduation. I included this class but also did a separate calculation just looking at the 06-08 classes. The 09 class was not included b/c it was just signed a little over a month ago.


08:
20 signed LOI
3.55 average star rating
Attrition, Lost 1 (Hicks)….1 three star
Other losses, zero (NFL or graduate early)
19 remain
3.58 actual average star rating remain
5% lost due to attrition
5% total lost

07:
24 signed LOI
3.79 average star rating
Attrition, Lost 3 (Jones, Kinne, Higgins)…1 four star, 1 three star, 1 two star
Other losses, zero (NFL or graduate early)
21 remain
3.90 actual average star rating remain
12.5% lost due to attrition
12.5% total lost

06:
25 signed LOI
3.6 average star rating
Attrition, Lost 7 (Snead, Webb, Burnette, Joseph, Ellis, Henry, Watts)…4 four star, 3 three star
Other losses, zero (NFL or graduate early)
18 remain
3.61 actual average star rating remain
28% lost due to attrition
28% total lost

05:
15 signed LOI
3.47 Average star rating
Attrition, Lost 4 (Brown, Oduegwu, Houston, Wilkerson)….2 four star, 2 three star
Other losses, 6 (Charles, Melton, Miller, Finley, Lewis, Cosby)….6 four star….2 entered NFL early, 4 graduated
5 remain
2.8 actual average star rating remain
26.7% lost due to attrition
66.7% total lost



At signing:
05, 15 signed LOI, 3.47 average star rating
06, 25 signed LOI, 3.60 average star rating
07, 24 signed LOI, 3.79 average star rating
08, 20 signed LOI, 3.55 average star rating
05-08, 84 signed LOI, 3.62 average star rating

What remains:
05, 5 remain, 26.7% lost due to attrition (6 lost to NFL or graduation)
06, 18 remain, 28% lost due to attrition
07, 21 remain, 12.5% lost due to attrition
08, 19 remain, 5% lost due to attrition
05-08, 63/84 remain, 17.9% lost due to attrition (25% total losses including graduation/NFL)
06-08, 58/69 remain, 15.9% lost due to attrition


The 06 class has seen the most attrition # wise. There are some seniors in this class but other than that I do not expect to lose 1 more due to attrition, if that. 7 have been lost to attrition from this class alone leaving only 4 lost from the 07 and 08 classes. We have lost 3 already from the 07 class and I don't expect much more. Everybody that is left in this great class is a stud and getting playing time. Only way I foresee losses here is due to unusual circumstances or injuries. Irby is a possible casualty.

Thus at most we lost 2 guys from the 06 and 07 classes in the next year. Graduation is already factored in to what we can take so the only way get more attrition is from the 08 and 09 classes. I could spot 2 guys from the 08 class who could leave due to playing time. If they do I would expect it to be soon, or at least before next spring. There is 1 OL and 1 RB there I see that I just dont' know how they fit in.

If the worst case scenario happens then I could see us losing 4 more from the 06-08 classes due to attrition. That is not a high enough number to give us the attrition some have predicted. Thus there would have to be some losses rather quickly from the 09 class. There are only 14 seniors graduating and with 20 kids in the 2010 class thus far that means there needs to be 7 losses before that class hits the field in order to keep us at 85. 7 losses in 18 months and that doesn't count if we take 3-4 more in the 2010 class. That could push the number up to 10-11 losses needed. This would mean about 4 losses from each of the 09 and 10 classes before football season in 2010 (18 months).

Predictions?/Thoughts?
 
All of that took a LOT of work, and I'm not smart enough to question any of your facts or numbers...so yeah, I agree...
smokin.gif
As good as you are with numbers, maybe you'll do my taxes for me?
 
That did take a lot of work, and I enjoyed learning these facts. However, it raises the inevitable question, how does this compare to other highly ranked schools? I'm sure every program loses a few-are we average, better, or below Florida, Southern Cal, Oklahoma, Ohio State in retaining recruited players?
Just in case you are bored and needed something to do.
 
Okay, I really hate those "in Coach Brown I trust" posts. However, how many times in Mack's tenure, how many gray shirts have we had to do?
 
Nice post. The attrition numbers just don't seem that bad. It felt like we were missing more guys this year than that. Thinking about this at the start of the 08 season, last summer, it was really surprising how many different reasons there were that guys did not end up on the Longhorn roster this year-- changing commitments late to other schools (not on this list), grades, conduct/legal, family issues, early NFL, and tranferring for playing time. I'm sure we can connect the dots.

I know it would have been nice to keep Webb and Watts for the Oline and Finley at TE. It would have been interesting to see J Wilkerson play as well.

In reply to:
Click to expand...
 
The attrition numbers aren't bad overall since 06. 06 had the most attrition. But issue now is that we have to had quite a bit of attrition over the next 18 months in order for Mack to be able to sign the current list of 20 pledges as well as take 3-4 more.

We had a much higher rate of attrition in the past. I did this same analysis in previous years. Last update I have on file was October of 2007 looking back at the 02-07 classes. Here is what we had then:

At signing:
02, 27 signed LOI, 3.96 average star rating
03, 18 signed LOI, 3.72 average star rating
04, 19 signed LOI, 3.53 average star rating
05, 15 signed LOI, 3.47 average star rating
06, 25 signed LOI, 3.60 average star rating
2-5, 79 signed LOI, 3.71 average star rating
2-6, 104 signed LOI, 3.68 average star rating


Thus what we have remaining so far since 02: ( just looking at attrition no graduating or NFL):
02, 17 remain, 37.0% lost
03, 12 remain, 33.3% lost
04, 13 remain, 31.6% lost
05, 12 remain, 20.0% lost
06, 20 remain, 20.0% lost
2-5,54 remain, 31.6% lost
2-6,74 remain, 28.8% lost

At that time I did not look at the 07 class but only at past recent classes and only at real attrition. During that period we were losing about 30% of our classes each year to attrition. It was a staggering number and rate. Those rates are significantly down overall since the 05 season. However given a couple more years you can see that the 05 and 06 classes have risen to the 30% attrition levels. Thus makes you wonder if we will continue to see attriition in the 07 and 08 classes that approaches the 30% level in coming years. To do that would require 13 total losses in the 07 and 08 seasons to reach our recent historical 30% attrition level......or 9 more losses from those 2 classes.
 
People need to go back and look at the attrition numbers from the 98 to 2k2 classes to see real bad attrition numbers. Those years were pretty bad. I think Oklahoma and their 2k3 class takes the cake for bad attrition. If I remember correctly they signed 23 kids and ended up with only 3 when it was all said and done.
 
Lots of good stuff in there. Interesting to note that the avergae star rating went up with attrition in most if not all cases. I'm hoping we sign more than 20 in this class because there are 3-4 out there that I really want and we seem to have a good chance in landing. That means we need quite a bit of attrition, have to wonder where that comes from.

This reminded me of how sick that 2002 class was. Of all the years listed 2002 had the highest average stat rating at 3.96, and it was a big class numbers wise as well. Wonder how 2010 will stack up against 02.
 
While someone mention grayshirts, it is also common practice that at the end of their junior year a player may "decide to give up" football, especially if they have graduated and aren't on the two deep. I will list all the juniors rather than list particular candidates. You know who they are.

Acho, Allen, Brown, Brown, Chiles, Cobb, Collins, Earnest, Harris, Hix, Huey, Irby, Kirkedoll, Marshall, McGee, Mitchell, Moore, Payne, Smith and Webber.
 
Okay Higgins may not technically count in regards to attrition....I am not really sure. He was on scholarship and then wasn't on the roster a year ago and now is back on as a walk-on. I left him off b/c I was looking at how many scholarships we had each year.
 
If this helps to compare us to the other big boys on numbers signed:

Number of players signed per Rivals for 2005-2008: The number they signed in 2009 is in ()

USC: 82 (19)
LSU: 90 (24)
OSU: 73 (25)
Bama: 112 (28)
Notre Dame: 84 (18)
OU: 97 (23)
Michigan: 86 (22)
Florida: 96 (16)
Texas: 84 (20)

I will let someone else look up how many each of these teams lost early to the NFL, the law, Red's Car Wash, transfer, or injury.

I can make sense of all of the numbers accept Bama. They must be doing some home cooking on those books for the NCAA or they are losing LOTS of players.
 
FlashHorn another reason you could have listed was grades as to why there is atrition. However, it is very rare that one ever hears about a big star athlete flunking out of school.
You are right about Alabama. Probably they lose some players for some reason or the other but if I were a recruit that would sure raise a red flag on them.
 
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