US intel says Iran planing attacks v oil trade

texas_ex2000

texas_ex2000

2,500+ Posts
WSJ: U.S. Says Iran Plans to Disrupt Oil Trade, Officials Cite New Intelligence Pointing to Potential Attacks on Platforms, Tankers in Region; Tehran Is 'Very Unpredictable'

Crazy. I wonder if the inevitability of the removal of Assad in Syria will push Ahmadinejad over the edge.

This is not good at all, not good for our sailors and marines in the Gulf, not good for Iran, not good for the economy. If there was a surprise attack, our Navy would incur some loses. We'd rally and roll them...but then what? Unless we invade (and who the hell really wants to do that now?) we're not getting Ahmadinejad/Khamenei and and all of these stupid events would only strengthen their position and demonize us further.

And at the same time, if there was a surprise attack, how the hell do you NOT invade?
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Osama argued that attacking the US would either be met with indifference because we would not fight back (see Marine barracks incident) or we would retaliate and enrage the muslim world.

Great choices, no?

I would not want to be sitting on a carrier or any other kind of naval vessel right now. And just the threat could shut down shipping by merchant ships. Who wants to run that gauntlet if you have no insurance coverage? My guess is that underwriters are telling owners that their coverage does not extend to that part of the world.

The price of a barrel will be over $120 next week is my guess. Anybody with knowledge in that field have any thoughts?
 
"U.S. government officials, citing new intelligence, said Iran has developed plans to disrupt international oil trade, including through attacks on oil platforms and tankers."

So they have "plans" to disrupt the oil trade via attacks on platforms and tankers. Seriously, so what. We also have "plans." Ones that range from repelling isolated attacks to ones that brutally and quickly threaten to "disrupt" their leadership's ability to draw another breath. Despite reports and news stories to the contrary, the Iranian military's abiltiy to shut down shipping in the region has advanced little beyond their last real attempt back in the late '80s when they tried to attack our naval vessels in the straits with little more than glorified bass boats. And unlike their "plans", our plans are backed by the actual technical assets and experienced operators to carry them out. It would be messy, but the outcome would never be in doubt. At best Iran could inconvenience the flow of oil for maybe 15 days...their leaders, however, would be dead forever. Color me not too worried beyond the lives of those caught up in the initial attack.

Notice how more of these types of "reports" seem to surface whenever oil prices trend downward. I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin.'
 
Oil has gone from ~$105 to ~$75 3-4 weeks ago to ~$91 now. It's not where it was 3 months ago but is not trending downward. A WSJ report that was very odd had absolutely zero impact on traders. The article was dated yesterday 5 PM ET, and crude hadn't moved - really all week.
 
Some crippling attacks on key military points, bunkers and underground facilities would likely be the motivator to get the revolution out and about again. It would occupy Basij and the purse strings that control them. With the government on diversion the uprising could begin again. It's not like it went away, it 's just on in the streets at this time.

We would have significant help from inside to remove their leaders. They are also the country possibly most ready and able to establish and sustain democracy in that entire region.
 
"Plans" aren't the same thing as actually trying to do it. Let them take aggressive action first. It would give us the justification to unload on them. I don't think we'd have to launch a full scale invasion. Just bomb the hell out of their military and nuclear sites. Ahmadinejad would fold like a cheap lawn chair. His own people would probably overthrow him.
 
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