Upset predictions week 4

H

hornpharmd

5,000+ Posts
#3 Georgia vs. ASU.....Georgia loses on the road
#6 LSU vs. #10 Auburn....LSU's new QB in first big road SEC game chokes
#18 Wake Forest vs. #24 FSU....FSU wins at home


Not a ton of big games this week but decent chance two SEC teams ranked in top 10 will go down....and both could be ranked ahead of UT.

OU has a bye but other 4 ranked teams in Big 12 should all win and move up.
 
Disagree on Georgia and Lsu losing. Arizona State just lost at home to Unlv so you know their confidence is down and Georgia has more weapons and Auburn has a great D but their offense is woeful. Lsu has enough weapons on O to take this low scoring game. Btw if Auburn does win that game I'd expect them to jump Texas in the polls.
 
As much as I like the Sun Devils and hope they win, I just can't see it versus UGa. The home loss to UNLV (which has just 2 road wins in the last 24 raod games) really deflated ASU. I expect a good game until the 4th qtr.
 
I don't see ASU > GA for the same reason. I would consider Auburn over LSU a better possibility.

If you want to go really out on a limb, you might consider Troy surprising a disheartened tOSU. I'd say an outright upset is probably unrealistic, but Troy might cover the 21.

I think another distinct possibility is that Iowa St 'upsets' UNLV. I expect UNLV could have a let down after the emotional ASU win.
 
GA will punish the Carpenter kid and they have the secondary to keep Rudy back there in the pocket or on his backside...

Would be real surprised if ASU scored 17 or more points!
 
GA 14 - SC 7. Any team in the top 25 can beat Georgia. Baylor would have beaten that SC team last week, handily. The same SC team that got within 7 points of Georgia. SEC myth falls hard this year.
 
I watched that entire game between Georgia and South Carolina and both teams were downright awful. Georgia has talent but no focus. South Carolina's defense is alright but nothing to write home about. With that being said Arizona State has a chance to pull the upset if Georgia keeps drinking the SEC kool aid and thinks they have a bye week. The highlight of the weekend however was Charlie Weis going down.
 
Georgia will tear ASU a new one.

LSU could lose but I am not sold on an Auburn team that managed three whole points against Mississippi state.

Wake will beat FSU.
 
Auburn lost at home to State last year. State beat Bama last year and won a bowl game. Croom and State do more with less in the SEC. He's going to lose his job due to booster impatience, but Croom is an above average coach.
 
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Throw this into mix. Troy by 3 over tOSU straight up. Ohio State still rattled. Plus Ohio University on tOSU's home field took them to the wire and are now 0-3 although close losses all. Troy is much better than the Bobcats of Ohio U. I took Troy and 21.5 for 500.

"Unfortunately for Ohio State, they may not have seen the worst. Troy (Alabama) of Sun Belt Conference is up Saturday, 20 Sept. They are saltier than most may know. A recent upgrade to the top level, joining Sun Belt in 2004, in past years they have already beaten Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, and Missouri. This year they started by defeating a fellow Sun Belt team, Middle Tenn, who promptly went out the next week and beat Maryland who in turn handed a decent Cal team their head this Saturday. Troy won their Saturday game 65-0 (of course against Alcorn State). Troy is looking for a signature win and still has that gleam of hope in that they sidestepped LSU til later in the season due to Gustav. I would not be surprised to see an uninspired and pouting Ohio State team getting drilled by a touchdown. Adding the final irony - these Alabama guys are also Men of Troy! Watch the score Saturday, 20 Sept."
 
You are absolutely right about transitive analysis. My bad.

But emotion (with talent especially) does win games. See the difference between Positive with Young against USC vs Negative with White against USC, a thought both Texas (against Colorado on the road in 2 wks) and Oklahoma (against any decent Big 12 team on the road or if they make it against USC in MNC) should remember. Texas fed off of the "Super USC" media trail. Oklahoma did not. Sooners tend to lose focus when they are heavily favored and on the road. And if they get behind early, it can be a long day or night. By the way Oklahoma/Texas in Dallas does not fall into that trend.

That being said, at least against the spread but possibly straight up, I stand by Troy (very positive emotion with good history at this juncture) against Ohio State (very negative at this juncture although tends to do well at home after a loss).
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