Upcoming Weekly Game Prediction Contest

[militaryhorn]

With the season less than a month away, it's time to dust off the weekly prediction contest and see if everyone is good with the way it was run last year.

I want to add a new element to the weekly prediction by including a way to earn bonus points that might benefit some who have a bad week on predicting the scores.

I want to include a category for BOLD PREDICTION worth an extra 5 points (or more depending on what people think).

An example of a bold prediction: Bijan Robinson will run for 200+ yards this week, Defense will have 2 interceptions, etc.

There may be more than one person who predicts the same type of bold prediction, i.e. B Robinson runs for 200+ yards or B Robinson runs for 175+ yards. In these cases the one who predicts the most yards and it is achieved wins the points. In the example above, if B Robinson runs for 202 yards then the one who predicted 200+ yards wins the bold prediction.

Everything else will stay the same unless there is a consensus for a change. Thoughts, concerns, suggestions?

 

[nashhorn]

Just the score for me.

 

[militaryhorn]

I forgot to add that you don't have to make a Bold Prediction. It's there to gain points if you need them.

 

[Dionysus]

Sounds good to me if you’re willing to do the extra work

 

[Godz40acres]

What's the cash prize amount this year?

 

[Dionysus]

What's the cash prize amount this year?

Due to inflation I expect it could be 10-15% higher than last year’s cash prize amount

 

[Creek]

Interesting, but the subjectivity on what is bold enough will be tough…How bold does it need to be?
Examples: Does Overshown getting 10 total tackles count as Bold? What about 550 yards of total offense vs Monroe?

 

[militaryhorn]

Interesting, but the subjectivity on what is bold enough will be tough…How bold does it need to be?
Examples: Does Overshown getting 10 total tackles count as Bold? What about 550 yards of total offense vs Monroe?

Yeah, that is the only down side. Again, this is a suggestion that we can work out the details if we do it.

We could have 5 to 10 categories and then you make a bold prediction based on one of those categories. Then multiple entries will go to the closest as I outlined above.

 

[Creek]

Yeah, that is the only down side. Again, this is a suggestion that we can work out the details if we do it.

We could have 5 to 10 categories and then you make a bold prediction based on one of those categories. Then multiple entries will go to the closest as I outlined above.

Yeah that’s better, you set the bold predictions—maybe have it where you’ll Lose points if your bold prediction doesn’t happen, that way it is a gamble…

 

[militaryhorn]

Yeah that’s better, you set the bold predictions—maybe have it where you’ll Lose points if your bold prediction doesn’t happen, that way it is a gamble…

Maybe 4 Offensive categories, 4 Defensive, and 2 Special Teams?

 

[Creek]

Make sense-
I suggest only 1 bold pick per person per week you can gamble though!

 

[militaryhorn]

I was asked to include a couple of examples on how a prediction would look based on the following information:

someone picks us to win by 10 but we lose by 4, how does that look points-wise. If they predict us to lose by 7 but we win by 3

First thing first, the points that you earn (or not earn in our contest) is based on how well you can predict the score of BOTH teams and not just Texas. The goal each week is to try and 'score' as little points as possible. I will use examples from last years first game:

As you can see, three people finished on top for the week. Since these three individuals were only 1 point off from being perfect, they only earned 3 points for the week.

It's important to try to be just as accurate as possible for the opponent as it is for Texas since Total Points is derived from Point Diff, Total Score, and Margin of Victory (MOV).

Point Diff is calculated based on what the actual score is and your prediction; that difference is an absolute value (meaning it is not a negative or positive number).

Total Score is based off the two scores added together and compared to the actual Point Totals or Combined Score; that difference is an absolute value.

Margin of Victory is similar to the other values and is an absolute value.

Back to this:

someone picks us to win by 10 but we lose by 4, how does that look points-wise. If they predict us to lose by 7 but we win by 3

This is what it would look like for the example given to me but it does not show much since the points are based off your prediction and how close you are to the scores of the individual team. Having the correct winner is not as important as to picking a more accurate score for that team.

Although, picking the wrong winner does incur a small penalty but someone can pick the right winner but be way off on the scores and will not win for the week. We had numerous examples of this last season when we went on our 6 game losing streak.

The key to winning a week and the season overall is being consistently close on your predictions every week regardless of who wins. The contest is not about picking who wins...it is about predicting the score of the team.

 

[militaryhorn]

Make sense-
I suggest only 1 bold pick per person per week you can gamble though!

Yes, you only get one Bold Prediction.