Ukraine... what do we really know?

You certainly are buying into the Russian propaganda hook, line, and sinker. One of the three opposition leaders is a Ukrainian ultra-nationalist. He is one of three not the only one and he is the leader of a smaller albeit important faction. You ignore the other two. You also ignore the corruption, murder, and abuses by Yanukovych.

Why is this?

The Ukranian situation is very complex, but at the core it is a rebellion by the citizenry against a corrupt government. It is a barely functioning country where bribes are a way of life. The majority of Ukrainians want change and want a more transparent better government like the EU or US. They do not want the Russian model of corrupt oligarchs and government officials running the place into the ground which they certainly have done.

This is at the core of the dispute. It is a East West values dispute not so much a political one or a Cold War type confrontation.

There are, however, also other elements to this dispute including a split between ethnic groups and various regions of the country. The western part of Ukraine is far more pro-EU than is the eastern and southern more pro-Russian parts. Kiev and Lviv are very pro-EU or west while other cities like Kharkov and Dnepr are more pro-Russia.

The two key developments that we should all realize are that the current protests were triggered by the government's attempt to outlaw demonstrations (the original protests were over Yanukovych backing out of the EU deal at the last minute). The protestors in the square in Kiev very bravely and correctly gathered in opposition to this totalitarian act by Yanukovych.

The other key act was Yanukovych having the Interior Ministry police fire on the demonstrators. This was murder. I don't care whether one of the three opposition leaders is a bad guy (he most probably is as are all ultra-nationalists). He is not the one murdering his own people.

At this point, I think Ukraine is at a breaking point. It is in serious danger of coming apart. This would be bad for everyone most especially Russia and the oligarchs (it is not an outcome the US or EU want either although its impact on us is much less). They appear to have recognized this danger over the last few days and look like they are pressuring Yanukovych to back off and hold early elections.

You do realize that the resignation of Yanukovych and holding early elections is a key demand of the opposition right? Does this sound like a fascist regime?
 
Tyahnybok's party, Svoboda, won 8.5% of the Ukrainian legislature in 2010. It is hardly a majority party. Ukraine has been in near depression like conditions for the last six years so this is not exactly a shocking development.
 
And here are the 2012 results:

Regions Party 30.11%;
Batkivschyna 25.44%;
UDAR 13.91%;
Communists 13.21%; and
Svoboda 10.41%

Yanukovych is the leader of the Regions Party. He had jailed the leader of Batkivschyna on corruption charges. This is also a part of the protests.

Ukraine is a very complex mess.
 
I think Russia got scared of exactly this happening (or the country descending into chaos) and got the President to back off. There really is very little the US and EU can do short of tens of billions in bailout that we don't want to do (and much of the money would be wasted anyway).
 
What is the "red line" on this? Russia has taken over a few Ukrainian airports, and obviously we're not doing anything about that. What line would they have to cross for us to intervene?
 
In reply to:

What is the "red line" on this?

Too funny. I was on the way home listening to talk radio wondering the same thing. It think Putin plays Obama like a pro plays a rookie in Hold Em. I think Obama stays clear of this through Kerry.
 
Sounded to me like BO was telling Europe "we'll hold your coat for you, sic em'".

We can't do anything ourselves. We're too busy gutting our military so we can spend more on entitlements.
 
All I know is this could become a very large war if other countries step in, it's a scary situation. Russia would love to get the Ukraine back in its control, and the NATO countries would love to add Ukraine to their group.
If the U.S. tries to back the anti-Soviet group here, it could get ugly, and big, in a hurry.
I don't have any answers, but I don't think we need an all-out war with Russia. I doubt the U.N. will do anything, either. Russia may go in and take it.
 
Accuratehorn,

I think you're right, and I don't claim to know the right move. This could get very ugly very fast. Is anybody willing to go to war over the Ukraine? Didn't think so. That leaves Ukraine to fight for itself, and the Ukraine is weak - a road apple. If Russia really wants the Ukraine, it's going to take it.

People made the Munich Agreement reference to the Syria fiasco, but this actually feels a lot more like the Germany - Czechoslovakia conflict than Syria did. You have a small nation that borders a dominant nation. A large minority of that small nation is sympathetic to the dominant nation, while the majority wants to be independent or aligned with someone else. The dominant nation threatens the small nation, and the world is left with the conundrum - do we risk lives and money to protect the small nation or throw them under the bus? The answer is almost always to throw them under the bus. That's why I think Neville Chamberlain gets an unfairly bad rap. Probably 90 percent of world leaders in his shoes would have done the same thing.
 
This may be developing nicely for us long term. Realistically, think about how this is going. Russia gets back Crimea and eastern Ukraine.

At what cost?

Putin is seen for the petty tyrant that he is.

We get western Ukraine as another buffer state like Poland that is NATO, EU, and hates Russia.

This is a huge win for us for doing nothing. Putin is a clown and is misplaying this badly.
 
Paso
I see you have been issued the BO talking points.
OH NO Putin Is a bully
who knew
and who will stop him?
rolleyes.gif


There is a headline with a Palin quote ( yes she is a buffoon but perhaps not to the degree Bo is proving himself to be
Palin
Back in 2008, Republican candidate Sarah Palin predicted Barack Obama’s weak response to a Russian invasion of Ukraine.


“After the Russian army invaded the nation of Georgia, Senator Obama’s reaction was one of indecision and moral equivalence – the kind of response that would only encourage Russia’s Putin to invade Ukraine next.”


Yesterday BO issued a ' stern' warning and then goes off to happy Hour while Putin amasses 6,000 troops and a heavily weaponed missle ship
This is an interesting take from the Daily Mail
"Revealed: The forgotten treaty which could drag the US and UK into WAR with Russia if Putin's troops intervene in Ukraine

The agreement sees signatories promise to protect Ukraine's borders

It was signed by Bill Clinton, John Major, Boris Yeltsin and Leonid Kuchma in 1994
Ukrainian parliament has now reached out directly to all the countries who signed the treaty
Putin currently has 150,000 troops on Ukraine's borders."


Read more:The Link
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

do not know how accurate this is and hate to think IF it is real what it will mean
 
What is Ukraine historically?

And you neo-cons seriously think we can stop (or even should stop) the parts that will align with Russia from doing so?

How exactly do you propose to do this?

Russia is playing this very poorly. Russia is going to lose the rest of the Ukraine forever. This is good for us and a horrible result for them.

You need to think about this historically and strategically.
 
Russia should support a referendum to be held in the Eastern Ukraine that supports such a split. If the vote is affirmative, as it likely will be, it should be allowed to go. A split would actually work pretty well here.
 
But hating on Obama is easier than thinking.

We have zero ability to influence this situation militarily and I sure do not want to spend money on it until it is stable.

What do you think Russia's goal should be?

Don't you think Russia's goal should be a unified Ukraine aligned with Russia?

Are they accomplishing this goal?

Do you have any idea how much they are pushing the western Ukraine towards the EU?

This is a disaster for Russia historically and strategically. They are about to lose half the Ukraine for parts of the former Russian Empire and USSR.

If I told you this in 1989, you would laugh about it.
 
A split works for us. It would be a great result.

Russia loses although maybe they are just cutting their losses at this point.

Crimea and Eastern Ukraine would probably vote to join or align closely with Russia.
 
Russia will have it all thanks to the POS Obama and his band of lib dems that have made the US a weak, unrespected, laughing stock in the eyes of the world. Putin is reassembling the USSR while Obozo is destroying the U S military and economy.
 
On CNN just after 1pm (CT) a reporter in a UN briefing said he heard the leader of opposition in Ukraine has asked the leader in Chechnya to join them against Russia. This would be like the opposition in Syria that is killing Christians and be-heading Priests, yet we are "on their side" in the affairs. Years ago the US trained the Taliban, including bin Laden, against the Soviets. And after that were shaking hands with Hussein and backing him against Iran (Rumsfeld, famous photo of him shaking hands with Saddam), while Iraq was gassing it's own, including Kurds, then later we invaded and toppled the government

Nuts!
brickwall.gif
 
The world should be against Putin in this.
How is this different then Hitler invading Poland.
Nobody did anything then either.
Somebody needs to stand up to Putin and Russias ********.
 
How would Crimea and Eastern Ukraine vote on whether to join Russia or stay with Ukraine?

I bet none of you neo-cons have the first clue.
 
I think it is extremely common knowledge that those if a vote was posed to the people of Ukraine there would be a splitting of the country. Crimea and eastern Ukraine would side with Russia and western Ukraine would side with Europe or independence.
 
It is all nuts Hu.....and as long as there are politicians it always will be - read - "The Outpost" by Trapper. Even Afghanistan is a major cluster f. Reminds one of the Viet Nam debacle from my era. "Take this hill", oh never mind we don't need it, no consequence other than American soldiers die for it.

It has all made me quite the pacifist in my 'mature' years. Soldiers die for what?
 
Where will the American lib/dems go when there is no U.S? They are the kind of ilk that will **** in their own mess kit.
 

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