UE rate going down slowly

[hornpharmd]

www.npr.org/2011/08/05/99136097/tracking-u-s-monthly-unemployment

It continues to be a long slow recovery, and this was predicted in 09 so no real suprise. I don't really folllow the UE rate on a monthly basis anymore and I had not checked in awhile. I did a quick search and found this link to NPR which graphed it on a monthly basis since September 09 when it was close to 10%. It is at 9.1% currently and has held steady there for the last 3 months.

I tend to think this is quite impressive considering the known long slow recovery and the now downsizing of state and local government which has slashed jobs across the country over the last year.

 

[Burnt Orange Bevo]

Hard to tell if that represents real improvement in the (un)employment picture, or whether the statistics are exluding more people (e.g. those who have been unemployed for 2-3 years and have given up actively looking for work, and thus no longer count as unemployed). I believe there are also adjustments (e.g. seasonality) made to the unemployment figures, so that's another thing that makes it somewhat of a fuzzy number.

Normally, such a high UE rate would bode very, very poorly for the incumbent President, but we'll see if the Republicans can actually capitalize on this opportunity or if they play the Three Stooges routine well enough to give Obama term #2.

 

[HornHuskerDad]

Burnt Orange Bevo makes a good point, hornpharmd. While it is certainly better to see the rate stabilized, rather than increasing, there's more to it. How many unemployed simply gave up looking? Not easy to tell. How many took jobs that are way below those for which they are qualified just to find work? Again, we can't tell from the simple summary numbers.

No doubt the recovery of jobs (or lack thereof) is a huge drag on the economy. While Obama may not be directly responsible for the stubborn UE rate, the reality is that it continues on his watch, so he will get the blame for it.

We'll see what happens next November. I personally will vote for the GOP candidate, whoever he or she may be, just because I think Obama is a disaster. However, there are some potential nominees for whom I'd have to vote as the lesser of two evils. I sincerely hope the GOP nominates a candidate for whom I can show some real enthusiasm.

HHD

 

[ShinerTX]

Who is the most reliable source for a REAL unemployment rate?

 

[TxStHorn]

Economists will tell you that a decreasing unemployment rate typically follows the beginning of a recovery.

So, if it is declining, then one can pretty much surmise that we've already turned the corner.

 

[ShinerTX]

The unemployment rate dipped below 9 back in March. It is up over the last 6 months.

 

[charloscarlies]

Not to be a debbie downer, but U6 is a better indicator of true unemployment and it's still rising.

portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp

 

[charloscarlies]

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[gecko]

Big layoffs are around the corner in the FS sector. Lots of dislocation yet to come.

 

[misirlou]

I'm not sure if I agree that U6 is a better measure, but I think looking at it in conjunction with U3 provides a more complete measure. The media has been pretty good during this downturn at commenting on the additional percentage of people that are underemployed (i.e. working part-time but want to work full-time)).

Anyway, I disagree that it is going up. Per the data at the link you provided, it is basically flat year over year for the past few months. It shows the same behavior that unemployment dipped earlier this year and started to rise again in early summer.

 

[hornpharmd]

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