tyler cowan on russia..............

[huisache]

My favorite conservative macro economist is picking Russia as the country most likely to have the next major economic crisis. He points to a 4.6% shrinking of the economy in the last quarter and the likely low continuing prices for oil as major factors. Turkey, Brazil, Greece, China and Belarus are also examined for major crises but Russia is his number one.

He doesn't even talk about population decrease, disease, religious conflicts with the muslims in the country or the falling life expectancy demographics. Looks dire for the Russkies.

 

[Joe Fan]

Oil coming down is rough for Putin

 

[Mr. Deez]

A crisis in Russia would give Putin reason to further consolidate his power. That could get scary.

 

[BevoBeef]

A crisis in Russia would give Putin reason to further consolidate his power. That could get scary.

I do not necessarily follow this reasoning. A crisis does not always seem to be favorable to the people in power. Discontent can sow a lot of weeds for the people in power sometimes.

 

[Mr. Deez]

I do not necessarily follow this reasoning. A crisis does not always seem to be favorable to the people in power. Discontent can sow a lot of weeds for the people in power sometimes.

It depends largely on where the population places the blame for the crisis. If they blame outsiders (meaning any non-governmental enemy), it can greatly aid those in power. Consider the Reichstag Fire Decree as such an example.