Tournament Odds

[s102r18]

Boyd posted his tournament probabilities page last night.

Anything look odd here?

ISR-based probability of reaching Omaha

#1: 75.0%
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#6: 69.6%
#3: 68.8%
#4: 64.5%
#5: 64.4%
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#2: 53.9%
#8: 50.6%
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#7: 36.5%

For the rest of the regional #1 seeds:
52.8% (ASU)
30.0% (Clemson)
24.3% (TAMU)
23.5% (CSF)
23.4% (OSU)
23.4% (GaTech)
22.2% (TCU)
05.2% (UCLA)

 

[Horns11]

Well, I think it's more based on the regional draws than the overall ISR ranking. I'd say a 1-in-3 shot of getting to Omaha seems reasonable, considering how well our offense has been playing. Although I don't think ASU should be that big a favorite if we faced off in the Supers.

 

[pike]

52% chance for ASU is very generous. They will have to get past Piggy and us at home. Better than 50/50 shot of doing both of those things? i don't think so.

Pike

 

[Pericles]

Boyd has had Texas at about a 12 or 13 ISR for awhile now, and he finished up with ASU at number 6.

So, assuming his formulas aren't flawed, it's logical that his calculations would have Texas lower, relative to ASU, in his ISR-Based Probabilities for the 2011 NCAA Tournament regionals.

Translation: either Boyd is wrong and the assumptions in his algorithms are not predictive of Texas's true ranking this year, or maybe the Committee is prioritizing final conference ranking this year as well as punishing ASU for it's loss to UCLA, and in the process, doing Texas a huge favor, for once.

Given that Boyd is often close to the Committee's seeding in at least one of his final two ranking categories, I'd vote for reason #2.

 

[s102r18]

Pericles, the committee uses RPI, not ISR. Boyd publishes a pseudo-RPI, which gives some insight into where teams are likely to be seeded by the committee. The RPI is useless for measuring odds, though.

Apparently nobody is understanding that the ISR is one of the best tools for evaluating the strength (or difficulty) of a regional or of a team's path to Omaha. Basically what the list above demonstrates is that the committee didn't grant Texas a true #7 seed. That effectively went to ASU, or you might say was split between Texas and ASU, with Texas awarded the hosting rights but ASU awarded a vastly easier path to Omaha.

 

[Pericles]

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