The word from TFM Steele on the 2008 Horns

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kchorn

250+ Posts
It's strictly a matter of opinion, of course, but some of us believe the only two annual preseason college-football magazines that are worth the current price of two gallons of gas would be Texas Football Magazine and Phil Steele's College Football Preview.

Since the 2008 editions of both of those publications have hit the newsstands, it may be interesting to compare their predictions regarding the Horns.

As the cover (with the smiling faces of Mike Leach, Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree) clearly indicates, the 2008 edition of Texas Football Magazine seems to be moving "North" -- with most of its favorable emphasis placed on TTech & Oklahoma.

In fairness, TFM's grim outlook for the 2008 Horns (we're rated the fifth-best team in the Conference and No. 3 behind OU & Tech in the South Division, and projected for the Alamo Bowl) is not much worse than Steele's prognosis (that we're the fourth-best team in the Conference and No. 3 in the South Division, and headed for the Holiday Bowl) ... but at least Steele expresses some respectful equivocation about his predictions for UT, while TFM pretty much just buries the Horns.

In the TFM preseason poll, we drop from No. 15 with Steele to No. 21 nationally (TFM has Oklahoma No. 4, Missouri No. 6, TTech No. 8, and Kansas No. 14). Then, in perhaps the ultimate insult -- since TFM has Texas as the run-away winner in its player-talent ratings for major-college football teams in the State of Texas -- the Horns have only one player on the first-team offense (OL Chris Hall) for the preseason "All-Texas" team (and this team does not include OU ... or any other Big-12 team outside the State of Texas).

Other in-State major-college football programs with one player on the first-team offense for TFM's 2008 preseason "All-Texas" team include: UTEP, A&M, Baylor and Rice. The University of Texas is in that group.

Then you have the following in-State football programs with more than one player on the first-team offense: North Texas (2 players), TCU (3 players) and TTech (3 players). Tech has the "best passer" (Graham Harrell), the "best offensive lineman" (Louis Vasquez), and the "best receiver" & "Player of the Year" (Michael Crabtree). The "best runner" is from A&M (Michael Goodson).

Colt McCoy is not listed even as the second-team QB on the preseason "All-Texas" offense ... that honor goes to Chase Clement of Rice.

The 2008 Horns fare slightly better on defense with the preseason "All-Texas" team ... we have two players in the first-team lineup there (DE Brian Orakpo and DT Roy Miller), plus Quan is listed as the first-team kick returner. The "best lineman" on defense is Phillip Hunt (Houston, of all people); the "best defensive back" is TCU's Stephen Hodge; and the "best linebacker" and "Player of the Year" on defense is TCU's Jason Phillips.

This may be the all-time worst showing for the Horns on the preseason "All-Texas" team in the history of Texas Football Magazine. Of course, we did not have a single player on Steele's 2008 first-team All-Big 12 Conference football team (offense or defense), but at least that team included players from the entire conference.

Even so, the "overall outlook" for the 2008 Horns from TFM is similar in one respect to Steele's -- they (TFM) do hedge their bets at the very end of their analysis of the situation for UT, as follows:

"If the Longhorns have any hope of winning the Big-12 title, Texas must find a running game [Note: At least, TFM appears to identify correctly the top priority for the 2008 Horns], a receiver who can stretch the field, and a pass rush to help an inexperienced secondary. Without any or all of those things, Texas could be facing another three-loss season ...

"... but if the talent (at UT) lives up to the recruiting hype, Texas could be heading to Kansas City on Dec. 6 for the Big-12 title game."

And here (imo) is the real kicker -- when Texas Football Magazine polled their own nineteen (19) sports media contributors, including an ESPN writer, regarding the winner of the Big-12 South Division, eleven (11) picked Oklahoma, six (6) picked Texas, one (1) picked A&M, and only one (1) picked Tech.

Go figure.

Hook 'em.
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I love both mags and buy them every year.
That being said, there are a couple of things that bother me about this year's editions.

In PS's, I came across the following:
"Despite a plethora of VHT's on the roster, Texas has not really fielded a dominating run defense...."

Texas gave up less than 100 yards a game rushing last year. Two years ago, the opposing team averaged 2.3 ypc.

And in Dave Campbell's, I just have a real problem with the All-Texas team. I know that, position by position, it's debateable. I just don't see how the Horns can be a border-line Top 10 team and outside national championship darkhorse with the selections made in DC's. I feel like I'm looking at a 1988 All-Texas team. Here is how it breaks down.

Offense (# from each team):
Texas - 1
North Texas - 2
Baylor - 1
Rice - 1
TCU - 3
UTEP - 1
Tech - 3
Aggy - 1

Defense:

Texas - 3 (Quan Cosby at KR is listed on defense as one of the 3)
TCU - 2
SMU - 1
Baylor - 2
Aggy - 1
Tech - 2
Rice - 1
Houston - 1

So, basically, the University of Texas, with all it's Top 10 recruiting classes, has 3 players on the Top 22 All-State TX team. TCU has 5. I call shenanigans.

I know I'm a homer, but I'll have a hard time being convinced that, for example, TX does not have one linebacker better than a TCU, Tech and Baylor player. And, that TX doesn't have one player (other than Chris Hall on the OL) that wouldn't beat out the other 10 listed on the Offensive First Team.
 
Our best athletes are, for the most part, freshmen and sophomores. No one's going to put Aaron Williams, or Ben Wells, or Dan Buckner, or DeSean Hales on any preseason lists.

Edit: Another example is Kyle Hix, who may be our best offensive lineman at this point. IMO, he's an eventual All-American and first round draft pick, and he's not on any preseason lists.
 
Am I missing something here?

A 3 loss season is grim? From the worriers on this board I was getting ready for 5-6 losses.

"Without any or all of those things, Texas could be facing another three-loss season ..."

Sounds like he saying, worst case senario Texas loses 3 games. I don't know about you but they can talk all crap they want if at the end of the day they say we win 10 games.
 
I think the Colt factor is the most overlooked by the prognisticators. It's as though his freshman year counts for nothing and no one believes he will improve from last year.

I think Colt was experiencing, in addition to a new o-line, the second year problems that Greg Davis predicted- not knowing quite as much as he thinks he does and making errors that experience will correct.

I look for a big year our of Colt. He doesn't look like a kid anymore and he did some nice things last year. I don't know that a big year will change the predictions, but I am surprised at how McCoy is just sort of ignored.

My feeling is the hype returns. His passing will help the running game.

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OU in 05 had a brand new line & all new receivers & Bomar as a brand new QB and only threw 10 picks all year.
18 is a lot.
I suspect he'll have around as many picks this year as he does sacks & I bet it'll be a pretty large amount.
 
Here are some interesting quotes from Mack in the 2008 edition of TFM:

"This (the Big-12 Conference) will be the best balanced league since I've been here. It's because everybody is better. It's not only because of the quarterbacks, partly, but also because all of the coaches have done a great job.

"Everybody has a good football team now. You can no longer just plan on winning a game in this league. You are going to have to earn the right to win it.

"We're excited about the challenge. At a place like the University of Texas, we lose great players every year. But if we're doing our job as coaches, we should have somebody who's ready to step up."

Here is part of the TFM analysis of the 2008 Horns' situation on offense (with another quote from Mack):

"Mack Brown may have surprised fans when he said Texas would keep the wide-open approach the Longhorns used in a Holiday Bowl victory over Arizona State.

"In that game, Texas threw a touchdown pass to a defensive tackle who lined up at fullback, ran a reverse, ran a reverse pass, and used backup QB John Chiles to run the shotgun option as a change-of-pace to starter Colt McCoy.

"'Texas fans are hard to entertain sometimes, so we need to keep their attention,' Brown said. 'And kids love trick plays. We will run them consistently.'"

Summary: It is good to know that "all of the coaches in the league have done a great job" -- and that Mack plans to entertain the Texas fans with "trick plays" this Fall.

Developing a viable running game with substantive misdirection (that can work effectively vs. Oklahoma in the 2008 RRS) might really "do the trick" in terms of entertaining Texas fans.

We'll see what happens this Fall.

Hook 'em.
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If Colt was asked to be the guy on offense that featured Charles, Finley & Sweed then this year may even be a bigger problem now that all of those guys are gone.
You lost Hills to the NFL & are having to move your RT to LT & some of the older players are being pushed by the younger players & while it's good for depth & comp at that position, it still doesn't show a veteran unit being returned.
You only had 2 games last year in a row that started the same group.
Talented, sure but it hasn't jelled yet & there's no promise that it will.
RB's may be explosive because I think most people are going to line up & try to come after Colt until the RB's prove they can be a diff maker but if one or 2 doesn't emerge then UT will be in some trouble.
It'll be the most interesting season on both sides of the ball for Texas.
Could be average to good or could be fair to OMG.
 
73,

Seems like I remember an Okie Oline group that had to shift around and make up for injuries a couple years back. And even though they had no evidence of "gel" prior to your season last year, they seemed to work out OK. Is it your contention that is only possible at OU?

Because if our line gels like yours did, and Colt is not running for his life, it would seem you might be staring down the barrel of a repeat performance of his freshman year.

Careful you don't make the same mistake some on here made about Bradford, prior to seeing what he could do when he had some solid line play in front of him. And please don't tell me you can't remember what Colt did when he had a solid Oline two years ago.
 
The OL will be much improved. There's a lot to be uncertain of with this team, but that's something I'm fairly confident about.
 
Don't balme 73. He just apparently doesn't remember Colt's 2006 year (the year he beat OU) and the 3K + yards he threw for and the year he set NCAA frosh records. He had a down year last year, but I don't think all his talent and skill exhibited in 2006 simply drained out of him between 2006 and 2007.

He was running for his life last year much more than normal b/c of the new and weekly changing OL. Conversely, I think alot of his early success was becasue his protection in 2006 was also not normal because it was better than the average year so the expectations coming into 2007 was probably way too high.

Lastly, let's also not forget that a bunch of those INTs were WR tipped balls=balls that should have/could have been caught. Every QB has one here and there. I have not gone back and counted, but it sure seemed to be a higher ratio of tips/INTs than what I'm used to seeing.

And yes, Sweed was hurt and out most of th year, Finley was very inconsistent even when utilized (see tipped INTs) and Charles was fumble prone early in the season and didn't wake up before the 3rd or 4th quarter late in the season. It may not be pretty, but that offense rode ont he shoulders of Colt in both 2007 and in 2006 (see KSU and A&M 2006).

Colt should have a much better year.
 
Knoxville-Horn - you do good work and I agree with your point about the superior player-talent available (whether or not we use it is another matter) for the 2008 Horns.

In support of your point, Texas Football Magazine ranks the University of Texas football program as the run-away winner (among in-State major-college football programs) in successful recruiting ...

... and then TFM claims we have next-to-no players worthy of first-team mention on the All-Texas team. That seems, imo, to be a clear indictment of the ability of the Horns' coaching staff to develop our player-talent.

To rub salt in the wound, TFM puts three Tech representatives on the cover and picks Tech to battle Oklahoma for the Big-12 South Division title ... while relegating the 2008 Horns to third-class status in the South Division -- when Texas has finished no lower than second in the South Division in all of Mack's ten seasons as the Horns' head football coach.

All of that could be passed off as a "matter of opinion" on the part of TFM (whether or not they turn out to be right), but there appears to be a logical flaw in forming the TFM "opinion" regarding Tech vis-a-vis UT.

How can TFM explain the fact that on page 55 of their own publication, they list the predictions (for the Big-12 South Division) from each of their nineteen (19) contributing writers ... and six (6) of those writers select the Horns to win the Big-12 South Division, while only one (1) of those writers selects Tech to win the South Division?

If their own writers think Texas has a 6-1 better chance of winning the Big-12 South Division than Tech ... then how does TFM justify its conclusion that Tech should be favored over Texas?

Maybe TFM should let Dave Campbell proof-read the publication before it hits the newsstands.

Hook 'em.
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As far as I'm concerned Tech is just going to have to flat out show me that they can play some semblance of defense before I even waste my time with them.

I'm also of the mindset that while I have a healthy respect for them, Missouri lost some pretty good linemen, and Kansas......well that schedule......both of these teams might not be as good as they're being made out to be.

As far as Oklahoma........yeah they're good.
 
regarding the wide-open offense, chalk me up as one who needs to see it to believe it. i am concerned about a running game more than anything else right now. let's hope that the line and rbs get it going.
 
Amen, Black Ninja and mr. sunshine.

starchild - you are right on target, imo, regarding the critical importance of the Horns' running game -- especially when we arrive in Dallas for the 2008 RRS. No Mack-coached Texas team or Stoops-coached Oklahoma team ever has won the the RRS when being out-rushed by its opponent.

The primary issue with the Horns' running game under Mack & Greg arguably is not, however, the effectiveness of our RBs and offensive line -- the record clearly shows that the UT running game (under Mack & Greg) has failed vs. Oklahoma (not to mention opponents such as A&M and KState) with outstanding RBs and talented, well-coached (by Mac McWhorter) offensive lines.

The problem (with the Horns' running game under Mack & Greg) very arguably is our totally-predictable, one-man running-game scheme. It simply has not worked for Texas in key games vs. quality opponents -- those opponents can call our running-game plays before the football is snapped, and then they fill the gaps -- sometimes playing up to ten-in-the-box -- and easily stop our "one" running back (the only player on the field who can carry the football for Texas) cold.

Apparently, the thought of faking a hand-off under those circumstances seldom, if ever, has occurred to GD ... or perhaps, in his mind, using substantive misdirection in our running game is too "risky" ... better that we should just fall on the football (in our own backfield) to avoid any possibility of a turnover on the play -- and forget the fact that we turn the football over, anyhow, on downs.

Mack, in his press conferences, has tried three basic excuses to rationalize the Horns' consistent running-game failures (during his coaching tenure at Texas) vs. Oklahoma and other key opponents with "tough" defenses:

(1) "We're using the same offense as the Indianapolis Colts" -- but Mack fails to mention (and he never is even asked by folks like Kirk Bohls) how the Colts could be the standard for the Horns, when the Colts' own running game is mediocre and their renowned "passing QB" (Peyton Manning) never could beat Florida or win an MNC at Tennessee. Why, then, are we attempting to copy, at the intercollegiate level of competition, something that doesn't work (in terms of the running game) in the NFL, didn't work (in terms of the passing QB) for Tennessee, and has yet to work for Mack & Greg -- in more than a decade -- at Texas or North Carolina?

(2) "We plan to use more trick plays" -- but Mack fails to mention that "trick plays" are a red herring and do not address the real issue of improving the Horns' running game in a substantive way. An occasional end-around play is not the answer now and never has been the answer for the Horns' running-game woes -- what the Horns' running game arguably needs (under Mack & Greg) is a basic running-game scheme that incorporates substantive misdirection "on a regular basis" -- like we had with Vince at QB, when we had "two" viable running threats on the football field for each play.

As Selvin Young put it: "We won (in the Horns' 2005 MNC season) because opposing defenses could not stop two running threats."

(3) "We are going to be more aggressive (on offense -- especially with the running game) this Fall" - but Mack has been saying that (at Texas) for ten years ... while we continue (except with Vince, when we completely changed our basic running-game scheme) to use our totally-predictable "one-man" running game scheme and, to make matters worse, send our solitary RBs scurrying for the sidelines -- running for their lives, instead of running the football North-South with misdirection and power.

In that regard, the timidity of Greg Davis in the RRS arguably is the stuff of legends. He may be the "tufted titmouse" of offensive coordinators. All he appears to want (when it comes to the RRS) is to be left alone in the air -- with no viable ground game and our beleaguered "passing QB" a sitting duck in the pocket against the Sooners, not to mention (later on in the season) the Aggies.

GD's offensive philosophy seems like that of the soldier (referenced in "Plutarch's Lives") who was running the wrong direction -- away from the action -- when he was stopped by Julius Caesar himself, who turned the fellow around and reportedly said: "The battle is this way."

Summary: This is The University of Texas, not Boise State. We play Oklahoma every year, and "trick plays" are not the reason that Texas leads the series, 57-40-5.

The key to the Horns' success on the football field (and the hallmark of each of our MNC teams, as recently as the 2005 season) has been toughness on the ground (on offense) and toughness in stopping the run (on defense).

Being more like Texas (and less like Tech) might be more "entertaining" to Horns fans than Mack seems to think ...

... but, of course, we would not want to offend Oklahoma by trying to beat them again (as we have in the past) with the strength of our running game, when we can entertain the Sooners with our trick plays and then let them express their appreciation for our acquiescence (in utilizing, as Stoops wishes, our impotent "one-man" running-game scheme) by planting the OU flag in the center of the Cotton Bowl at the end of the game.

We'll see what happens (on October 11) this time around.

Hook 'em.
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