The Strangest Pick....

[overseasbbfan1]

....for me is Middle Tennessee State. Creme has them in, not even as a bubble team, and I know that Outlook had them as one of 5 in his group of 16 that was also solidly in (though he didn't say he thought they deserved to be in, just that they were). I even emailed a couple of folks I figure know more about womens' bb, and the selection process than I do, trying to figure this one out.

They won 20 in a row and upset KY, but if you look at the Sagarin RPI, they're 67th. They only played four games vs. the RPI top 25 and went 1-3, and played just five vs. the top 50 and went 1-4. They lost to GA Tech, Arkansas, Tennessee, Penn State and even James Madison (who Creme no longer has in his bracket). And they lost to RPI # 130 UALR in their league tournament final! Contrast that to a team like Texas, who played 22 games vs. the 50 and won 9. 22 games vs. just 5, and 9 wins vs. just 1 for MTSU. Yet MTSU is solidly in and the Horns are a part of his "last four in" group.

But this really isn't about the Horns as Creme has them in his bracket at this point. I'm not even sure I would have MTSU on the bubble. They were definitely a team I had down as having to win their conf tourney to get; I didn't think they would be a part of the conversation otherwise. They played a comparatively weak schedule, and so few games against top teams, and even then managed just one win in that group.. and to top it off lost a league final to a lowly rated RPI team.

I would easily put any of Creme's last four out, or even the second four out in over MTSU. I don't see how you could include them in lieu of USC, Kansas, OSU and even Michigan. It just seems really weird to me that not only are they in, but they're not even a part of the bubble conversation. Perhaps someone else has a better perspective, or can explain their inclusion to me, but I haven't been able to figure it out yet.

 

[overseasbbfan1]

...and I just want to add that their Sagarin SOS is 149th and they still went 1-4 vs. the top 50. Seems to me if you have such a low SOS you better win more than just one of the tough games you do play. And yet they're solidly in?

 

[outlookdude]

Hard to get into specifics as I am only using my phone this weekend. But my experience has been that any team that you may have as anywhere in the last 10-15 in, or first 10-15 out could be a surprise when the committee is finished. All we can do is make our best guess.

Historically the committee seems to like strong schedules, quality wins, and avoiding bad losses. Texas has an edge on most teams in that range in all three. The other thing they seem to like is a strong finish. There are teams with a better finish. But, I don't think that will be enough to push them below the bubble.

I think they are in. But, every year the committee does things that surprise me.

 

[overseasbbfan1]

In reply to:

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[outlookdude]

I should also say that the end results depend a lot on the formula that you use. I looked at realtimerpi in part because they seemed to have a formula that was less favorable to Texas. Their bracket projection doesn’t seem to do anything other than just plug in teams based on RPI, which I think is a little simple-minded. But, when I use their rpi rankings and look at the criteria which has always seemed to be important to the committee I still see Texas being in.

Based on that formula Middle Tennessee has good wins vs NC Wilmington (77), South Dakota St (58), Kentucky (9), and ARLR (93). With those rankings the ARLR loss to end the season is not a bad one because it is to a top 100 team. The losses are to rpi 5, 14, 19, 31, 34, and 93. A signature win to go with a strong finish and no bad losses is usually enough to get you in. I’m not saying that they should be in. I haven’t even seen them play. But, this looks like a resume that historically has received a bid. It all depends on how you calculate the rpi. That can drastically change the SOS, quality wins, and bad losses.

What will hurt Texas is Gonzaga losing to BYU, and Dayton beating St Bonaventure. That’s two automatic bids to teams that might not have made it in otherwise.

Someone on another board posted this claiming it to be from ESPN…..I haven’t seen it with my own eyes, but have no reason to doubt it came from there…

Texas remains the last team in. The Longhorns are no slam dunk, but the decision came down to fact they have more wins against other teams under at-large consideration (seven) than North Carolina (three), Michigan (four), Southern California (four), James Madison (one), Oklahoma State (five) and Kansas (six). Of course, there a number of other factors to consider, but this was the deciding measurement. Victories over Michigan State, California and Virginia were a collection of nonconference wins none of the other teams have.

LAST FOUR IN
Temple
Iowa State
Michigan State
Texas

…..I have trouble seeing them in that order. We’ve already talked about ISU. I see them very, very close to Texas. The best win for Temple is against Dayton who would have been a bubble team if they didn’t steal a conference championship game against St Bonaventure. They have a loss to #201 Northern Illinois. They have a very weak schedule overall. I didn’t even have Temple seriously under consideration. Michigan St has three very bad losses. While they may have finished 8-2 that run included games against rpi 119 (twice), 165, and 218. Their SOS is not even close to Texas, and they lost to Texas head-to-head.

I didn’t previously look very closely at NC. They finished 4-6. One bad loss to Clemson (246). Wins against 12, 49 twice, 84, 87 twice, and 99. SOS is 87. RPI 89.

Again this is from one site and the rpi formula obviously changes depending on who you listen to. But, I can’t find a way to leave Texas out even when I am specifically looking for that. Still, the committee surprises me with something every year.

 

[BabHorn]

well, got seven hours before we know for sure.
But I think our OOC conference schedule with those wins listed above will make the difference. We split with ISU, beat MSU. I have no idea about how Temple matches up with RPI, SOS, etc. I found the criteria that the NCAA uses on their site. It's confusing as all get out. Of course, if you do it often, it probably becomes less so. Past history is not supposed to factor in who gets in or not. But I think Texas meets or exceeds most of the requirements.

Kinda wish we had a watch party. This is going to be as nerve wracking as a close game.

 

[overseasbbfan1]

I understand what you are saying about MTSU, though I still might have them on the outside looking in. I at least felt they should have been on the bubble, or a part of that conversation at any rate. But who knows, perhaps they are considered a bubble team by the committee, and just not by Creme. When I go back and think about it, obviously they have no control over their conference schedule, it is what it is, and they took care of business there by winning 20 in a row. And they probably scheduled as many good teams as possible in the pre-conference season (KY, Tenn, GA Tech, Ark and James Madison). So they probably get credit for that, but their SOS is still weak overall, esp when compared to other so-called bubble teams from the better conferences. Only winning one of those 5 contests against stronger teams, and the close loss in the tournament final, is what hurts them.

I do agree fully with respect to Temple and Michigan State. I actually had one of Creme's last four out, and even one from his second four group out making it in over these two - and that's strictly based on all of the factors we hear the committee looks at the most closely.

And it's funny that you mention the other RPI's - I've been using Sagarin because it shows a lot more info - not only SOS but records vs. top 25 and vs. top 50, as well as how many games each team played within those groups. But I went back and did a composite of all three RPIs for the 11 teams you mentioned were competing for eight spots in another post (didn't include all 16, or the five you figured were llikley to be in the field). Once I averaged the three RPI's for all 11 squads the bottom 4 (starting with the lowest) were Michigan State, Temple, Kansas and Michigan. And Michigan State was solidly last, not even close to the others, so it is surprising for Creme to have them in the field.

But Babhorn is right, we'll know for sure in 6-7 hours!