The Mitt Romney Electability Myth

MojoMan

1,000+ Posts
Over the last few days, I have been pondering the pre-selection of Mitt Romney by the MSM and the usual Republican establishment types as the "inevitable" nominee and as the "most electable." Of course it seems like we go through this pretty much every election. It was this same two groups that anointed John McCain, Bob Dole, George H.W. Bush and Gerald Ford as the Republican nominee. And for pretty much these same reasons.
Of course in 2008 they first anointed Rudy Giuliani, who never even made it past the first few primaries, so they had to take a mulligan on that one. And this year, the MSM has been pushing for John Huntsman, and I strongly suspect that the same Republican establishment would be delighted to see him make a late run and claim the mantle of GOP leadership going into the upcoming election against Barack Obama. But barring that, they seem to have united around Mitt Romney.

Of course the Republican establishment holds Ronald Reagan out as a hero and a Republican icon now. But back during the primaries in 1980, they were opposed to Reagan, as George H.W. Bush was the "most electable" because of business experience and broad background in the federal government. Ronald Reagan was just a governor after all, and had no foreign policy experience to speak of.

But in an unusual year, 1980, when the country was faced with a real sense of crisis, Republican voters bucked the MSM and the Republican establishment and picked Reagan, who was regarded by a good many people as somewhat of a loose cannon and a bit of a flake, especially compared to Bush.

And the rest is history.

Has our current sense of crisis advanced past the point where the American people will be guided by their love of routine and their fear of real change? Could this be another year like 1980 when the people look past the recommendations of the establishment interests and choose something bolder?

Here is an excellent article on the myth of the electability of Mitt Romney, which discusses these matters further.

In reply to:


 
The Republicans do not have a candidate who can beat Obama unless something catastrophic happens.

Too many negatives on the personal side for Newt (adultery, questionable ethics etc...) and on the political side (too liberal for many conservative Republicans, too wishy-washy for others) for Romney.
 
It will be funny to watch the MSM dissect everything Newt has ever written or said when they never had the slightest interest in Obama's college writing, etc. How many times with the story about his ex wife "On her death bed" be told?
 
I am a lifelong conervative who would never vote for a democrat, and I'm 99.9% certain Obama will win.

Too much to overcome, and too much fear about what might happen if he loses.
 
Actually, I'm kind of pissed off that the "Ron Paul can't win" mantra has been repeated so many times -- coming mostly from his own party -- that it's self-fulfilling. He's the only one of them that I'd vote for.
 
I have been pondering the pre-selection of Mitt Romney by the MSM and the usual Republican establishment types ....

Where do you come up with this stuff?

MSM? GOP establishment types? Pre-selection? It's as if you're making all this up. Or watching FOX News. About the same thing.
 
MojoMan,

The MSM and political commentators have always bought into the myth that if the GOP nominated moderates they'd be able to reach "independent voters" and have better electoral chances. I don't know who started that myth, but it gets repeated every four years, and it has never had any meaningful evidence to support it. If it was, then Gerald Ford would have been President until 1984, and John McCain would have blown out Barack Obama.

It's based on two false assumptions. First, it assumes that independent voters go for moderate Republicans. They never have. Moderate Republicans are usually crappy candidates with no defined agenda. (Hell, what was John McCain's campaign about? It was total incoherence.) Interestingly, they will vote for moderate Democrats, but for whatever reason moderate Democrats always seem to have a well-defined agenda. The reality is that independent voters want a candidate with a plan. Just saying "I"m more conservative than this guy but not as conservative as this other guy" isn't a plan.

Second, it assumes that the GOP base's turnout is irrelevant. It's not. In fact, it is often outcome determinative. If the GOP base shows up in big numbers, it wins more often than not. When it doesn't, it loses. It doesn't show up for the McCain types. It shows up for the Reagan types.

And you're right. The MSM never stands by a moderate Republican in the general election. After the GOP convention in 2008, John McCain may as well have been David Duke as far as the MSM was concerned.
 
You may think you know that Obama cannot be re-elected, but you are letting your bias guide your judgment.
The country is split right down the middle, 50/50, and each election has been very close over the last few years.
It is certainly not true that every Republican would defeat Obama. IMO, only Romney has a good chance.
Of course, if some event, real or contrived by back-room schemers, happens right before the election, many people vote accordingly, and what everyone believed previously goes right out the window.
 

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