Texas Poll (2/14): Clinton 54% Obama 38%

[Wesser]

Per new Rassumen Poll dated 2/14/08:

Link

 

[SomeMildLanguage]

Hillary's strategy does not equal Giuliani's.

 

[afat]

Except that even with that margin she is 6 delegates behind before the caucus even starts. And before Obama has set foot in the state.

She is screwed.

 

[blueglasshorse]

Not sayin' that Obama will win Texas but he is kinda busy at the moment in Wisconsin. Once his boots hit the ground here those numbers will tighten up rapidly. I went to 3 bookstores this morning and couldn't find a copy of Obama's book to get autographed next week The wave is slowly building and will crash over the Texas beaches very soon. I predict a dead heat by election day.

 

[Eastwood22]

O RLY?

 

[Wesser]

Eastwood: That is interesting. Not on Real Clear Politics yet, but ARS is a polling service that RCP reports on so it probably will be later today. Again, we have dramatic differences in the polling. Not as 'scientific' as we have been led to believe, eh?

 

[longhornnick]

If that second poll is anywhere close to being accurate Billary is toast.

 

[Eastwood22]

Exactly, Wesser.

If this political season has shown us anything, it is the basic failure of predicting a winner until the clock hits all zeros...

 

[washparkhorn]

Hillary is going to blame anything less than a landslide over Obama in Texas on Republicans switching over and voting against her.

Texas Republicans -- "Yes We Can!"

 

[Austintxusa]

This poll is IMHO the most accurate. Shows Hillary ahead 49% to 41%.

Link

 

[Michtex]

 

[SenateHorn]

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[Sii]

Obama winning more delegates out of Texas which is very likely by the setup is a loss for Hillary

 

[Used2btexaslover]

I stopped looking at polls after Super Tuesday. They are meaningless in this race. Maybe accurate the day before the election. Maybe.

 

[Wesser]

Clinton has to win the popular vote in TX. Period. Even if the delegate total would favor Obama, that can be spun as arcane rules (which would be true). Regardless, Obama has a slight delegate lead in total. If Hills won TX and kept the delegates close, it's not like Obama would open up a huge lead or anything. For all of those suggesting that Hills is toast, remember, there is not any reasonable path that Obama wins the nomination during the primaries either. He might have a delegate lead, but he won't have enough to nominate.

You have already started to hear the whispers and they will grow by the convention. If Obama loses (by popular vote) Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania, then he would have failed to win any state with more than 20 electoral college votes but his own state of Illinois. It seems hard for me to believe that party leaders and superdelegates will just dismiss Hillary if she has won every single large state but Obama's home state.

But she can't raise this argument if she loses Texas. That is why she will pour her time and resources here.

 

[SenateHorn]

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[Longhorn_Fan68]

Methinks Ron Lester and Associates will be out of the polling business in the near future.

 

[Sii]

I didnt say she would step aside but she would still be in huge trouble

Hillary winning a close % over Obama in Texas yet coming out with less Delegates is not going to help her

People close to her own Campaign claim she needs BIG wins by BIG margins in Ohio and Texas

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[SenateHorn]

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[Wesser]

There is a gaggle of polls in Texas being released now... RCP now can calculate its 'average' and they say HRC with a 10 point lead. Who knows?

Link

 

[Michtex]

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[Sii]

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[Wesser]

Just wait until to you hear the hew and cry from Hispanic politicans about disenfranchisement if Hillary wins the popular vote by 5 points and loses the delegate count due to the dems granting more delegates to african-american heavy senate districts.

The black vote is not the only bloc that might stay home in November -- worse the Hispanics might support John McCain since he favors immigrant rights.

 

[SenateHorn]

Alright, we'll see. She is not backed into any corner if she wins the popular vote in both Texas and Ohio. That has been the barometer for winning a state during this whole season. The media will report that Hillary wins two very large states. Obama winning the delegate count will be side note, because Obama will not have the delegates needed to claim outright victory.

Hillary will claim a come back, start campaigning in Penn. If she wins the popular vote in Penn. then the race will focus on NC and Indiana. If she hangs that long and wins Texas, Ohio, and Penn. then she is very much in the race no matter the delegate count. Besides there are still 600 or so super delegates that are not committed.

This thing is far from over and Obama would be smart to leave Wisconsin and get to Texas.

 

[Sii]

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[SenateHorn]

Let's just agree to disagree.

The media is looking for a reason to claim Hillary is back in the race and the popular vote in Texas and Ohio, no matter delegate count, is just what they need.

They want the race to go to the convention. Don't underestimate their ability to change the narrative.

 

[Sii]

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[TheTresLeches]

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