Texas is going to be in play for the Democrats

U

Used2btexaslover

250+ Posts
Most likely Super Tuesday will not make anything definitive and the race for delegates will go on - making Texas in play for the first time in a long time. We vote March 4th and the D race is proportional. Obama already drew an insanely large crowd in Austin last year (I think the largest of his announcement tour.) It's going to be fun seeing them up close for once. Texas never gets campaign love like that.
 
It will be in play and be big.

The polls show hillary with a lead.

I hope this shrinks and will be doing what I can to make it happen.
 
My point may be for another thread. I'm glad Texans will have a say, This primary nonsense is sickening. Why should a scant few who vote in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina vet our Presidential candidates? It is re god dam dic ous.

Glad we'll have a say on both sides.
 
I am afraid you're right...but the hope is that he will have a good showing on Tuesday and continue the momentum and gain ground....
 
The Big O should do well in Dallas and Houston.

R's sad that the Huckster is leading in this state, but considering our last two Guvners, not suprising.
 
What I find amazing is that we (in Texas) might actually have a deciding hand in the Democratic nomination.

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Unlike Republicans, though, Democrats distribute delegates in proportion to their vote statewide and in individual congressional districts. That means candidates can come away with big chunks of delegates even in states they lose.

As a result, neither Obama nor Clinton are likely to deal a knockout blow on Tuesday, prolonging their battle for the nomination to later contests in February, or to March and beyond.
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And, in response to the posters who think that the Republican candidate will win Texas regardless of who gets the Democratic nod, I'm not so sure. I think Texas Republicans are suffering from the same kind of smugness that Texas Democrats had prior to the 80's; things are changing beneath them. This is not to say that Texas Democrats are getting stronger or revitalizing, it is more a perception that independent voting is gaining strength.

IIf I were a true red Republican loyalist (and I'm not, if pressed I would say that I am a Democratic conservative whose party has abandoned him) I would not take comfort in the primary figures because I think a not insignificant percentage of people vote in the Republican primary just to have a voice in who runs their government. For myself, personally, when I lived in Williamson County I voted in the Republican primary simply to have a voice in the local government, because the Democrats were not fielding candidates, or were fielding extremely weak candidates, for local office.

A look at the Strayhorn campaign, and Kinky's appeal in the last gubernatorial election, kind of gives some support to this point of view.

So, come November, I don't think that Republican dominance in this state translates into a guaranteed in the bank "R" win. My gut feeling is that a lot of people who would otherwise have no interest in a party label will vote just because it is a Presidential election. Who will take Texas depends on who is nominated. I think McCain could take Texas given a base voting factor of straight line voting (where Republicans currently own a 40% lock), but I think Obama could upset the apple cart because he has more appeal to independents and cross overs than Hilliary (who inspires more hate)
 
Considering GWB beat Kerry 61% to 38% in 2004 in TX, do you really think the field has swapped THAT much to the other side?

That's a 23+% point swing...
 
I could EASILY see that gap narrowing by a decent amount...

But, the reality is that, currently, TX is a Republican state...

If I had to guess, I'd say it's about 53-55% Republican right now...with the remaining part being split between the Dems and the Independents/Others...
 
You can dream if you want but there is ZERO chance Obama or Hillary could possibly win Texas in the general election. I guess it could be possible that the gap has closed but neither of those candidates would be the one to capitalize.

It will be close to 60/40 again.
 
I'm sure that Texas will go to the Republican. However, looking back on the gubernatorial race, we may have elected Bell if Kinky had not run. I also think that the effect of Strayhorn hurting Perry was not as much as it appears, because some of those were people who were fed up with Perry and would not have voted for him anyway (though they probably wouldn't go Democrat in a presidential election). Also the Texas House is 79-71, as close as it has been in a good while. Texas might be closer than you think in November, but I'm sure the Republican will still win it.
 
Well, November is a long way away. My point was that a month from now Hillary and Obama will most likely be all over the place here. That never happens in Texas.
 
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