Texas, aggy, and seeding thoughts

goosehorn

goosehorn

500+ Posts
I think the committee sometimes sees bubble teams from the BCS conferences (aggy) stumble into the NCAA and not want to give them any chance to beat a decent team that just has a bad game #1 in the tourney.Your basically rewarding a team for giving them a #12 because they have a chance to go deeper in the tourney with a couple of upsets.From looking at past brackets, it appears that #10-#14 seeds seem to be mostly for the mid-major teams that had a good season but a poor RPI because of the scheduling in their conference. This isn't aggy.

Beyond being a #16 or #15, #9 is the worst thing to happen. I seriously doubt the committee awards a team that blew a 21 point lead to the 2nd worst team in the conference. This, imho is aggy.

They get in, but it is at #8 or #9.

As far as Texas goes, if we get by Baylor (hopefully) and play for the championship, we start looking like a 5 seed, imho. Technically, though rankings don't factor too much into seeding from my understanding, it'd be like saying we are a top 20 team. Regardless of how sloppy this game was, getting to the championship game moves us into the top 25, maybe somewhere around #22.

I'm not a super basketball guru, but I just think we have a good shot at being a 5 seed now, but only if we get by Baylor. Could this happen?
 
Based on how we ended the regular season, I would say a 5 seed is unlikely even if we win the tournament. Beating Baylor might be enough for a 6 seed, but I wouldn't bet on that, either.

Still, ya never really know what the committee will decide.
 
Here's my guess as of 11:25 Thursday night:

OU gets a 2
KU gets a 3
UM gets a 4 (might swap with KU if the Tigers win the tournament)
Texas gets a 6, provided we beat Baylor; otherwise a 7
OSU gets an 8, a 7 if they win the tourney
A&M gets a 9, or a 10 depending on how the remainder of the tournaments fall into place
If Baylor wins the tournament, they'll take A&M's spot
 
Well hey we didn't do too bad in the past as a 6 against MSU in Dallas, right?
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If we have to lose once in the next two games, I hope it's to Baylor and they take aggy's spot.

Only thing that would make losing to Baylor bearable
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My best guess: OU has played themselves into the 2 seed in North Carolina's bracket out east. Texas has to win the tournament to get a 6 seed. Otherwise, it is 7/8. Kansas will slide to 4 and Mizzu up to 3. Okie State is in the same position as Texas, but a loss tonight locks them in at 8. A loss to Baylor still might slide Texas in with a 7 seed. Texas is a shade better seed than OSU, which could change should they beat MU and we lose to Baylor. Aggy is praying we pop Baylor or that the Bears get beat in the final. If Baylor steals a bid, we all know it'll be Aggy's. In general, folks on this board seem a little giddy in wanting to jump Texas a line with every win. For that to happen, we'd have needed to beat KU or OU like OSU did. The Cowboys have moved up from 9/10, but we haven't earned that much credit. We have held serve and maybe gotten up one spot with our two wins imho. I think it'll be 7 seed for Texas. Beat Mizzu in the final and there is a faint, faint chance we get to 6.
 
I don't think A&M is out if Baylor wins the tournament. That probably would have been the case with a Sunday final, but with a late-afternoon/early-evening Saturday final, there still would be time to evaluate if they were one of the 34 best non-autos.
 
I used to believe that teams could climb a seed with each game won. It may have been true to some extent a generation ago, but now the evaluation process is extremely sophisticated.

"Body of work" is a key consideration. I don't think, for example, that KU will sink far. I don't think MU will get a better seed than the Jayhawks if it wins the tournament. The tournament is just one piece of the puzzle. It would be like saying that Texas would get a better seed than OU if wins the tournament, because they split two games, and Texas has at least as good of a n-c resume.

I understand there is a difference in records with my example, but that's kind of my point. It's not all about the tournament... the committee long has preferred to reward conference champions, especially outright winners such as KU.
 
If we lose tonight, we are likely an 8 seed. Maybe 7 if we play well and the stars align.

But even if we beat BU, we would still be an 8 unless we win the tournament. On the other hand, winning tomorrow (esp. over an excellent missouri) with our SOS and our OOC wins should be good enough to merit a 6.

I'm betting against the seven.
 
Texas is 7/8 right now, The way we shoot free throws, it really doesn't matter. But Baylor has so much talent. If we had Dunn or Jerrells, we would be a top 10 team. Those two can get their own shot anytime they want. That is exactly the kind of player Barnes needs. It is maddening to watch Baylor. Even the announcer kept saying if only their big would run to the rim and their driver could dump off. It is just hilarious watching Drew and Barnes lock horns. I'm pretty sure neither of those will be coach of the year anytime soon! We do have a nice recruiting class next year. Maybe Barnes can hire Bob Knight as associate head coach. Then we could have some offensive flow...... here's hoping Jai Lucas can be a TJ Ford-like coach on the floor. We desperately need one. Until then, pray Texas is favored in the first round, and if you are a Texas Ex, you will know what to do, loyalties be damned. Vegas here I come!!!
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You might review a team like Penn State's resume vis-a-vis Aggy's. Look carefully at road wins. Then look at Aggy's wins which came in the cozy confines of their segregated village. Then I think you'll begin to see my reasoning. There will be eight teams in from the Big 10 over seven teams in from the Big 12. That is a flat *** guarantee. Someone pays if Baylor wins. Look back at the bubble scenario when Georgia won the SEC. Late stolen bids come from the pocket of the conference involved. I ampretty darn resolute. If Baylor wins. Aggy hosts a game in the NIT. A win over Arizona is like a win over Iowa State at this juncture.
 
IndyHorn, I'd take your post as more than just wishful thinking if there were a single bubble watch that included A&M on the bubble.
 
All right, I won't deny it is wishful thinking of mine to watch Aggy suffer. Still, Penn State's wins at Illinois and at Michigan State are better than anything Aggy did. What is Aggy's best road win, Nebraska? Did they even beat Baylor on the road? It just seems sort of odd to me. Everyone on this board said without a win over Mizzu, Aggy was out. Everyone said up to Mizzu Aggy had three decent wins: LSU, Arizona, and Texas. Now I note that Arizona is RPI outside of 50, and Texas is likely now RPI high 30's. Aggy got one win to put them in the tournament, but then turned around and cratered, and yet now they are absolutely safe? It just seems a huge buffer was achieved through one win over a good, not great, Mizzu team playing out the string on the road on the opponent's Senior day. Anyway, whatever. Here is hoping Aggy's NCAA streak ends next year then with no Josh Carter, and who else. Bryan Davis? Please tell me Aggy loses a lot next season. I want them to recede into the backwater as we seemingly already have an issue with OU getting every good player in Texas for two straight seasons. I want the little brothers to fall back. Wishful thinking for this season doesn't mean wishful thinking for ever, right? I will still take some pleasure watching Kentucky, and God-willing, Arizona's streaks end. Aggy pushes it out to what, 5 or 6 years? I was the one who called for Aggy to win out. I wouldn't have done so if I knew a single win over Mizzu means they go from out to a friggin lock. Just strange data set for me to parse in that. Doesn't anyone else see the contradiction in that pre and post Mizzu thought? Mizzu isn't UConn or Carolina here. Go Baylor all the same to ensure Arizona gets knocked out. I leave for Vegas Wednesday, it's all good, wishful thinking or not!!!!
 
We will not be great, but should still be very solid next year. Four Seniors and a good bit of experience. Texas has a fantastic recruiting class coming. Ours is not to your level, but still very good.

Indy Horn, the Aggie resume for making the tournament this year is not much different than the Longhorns. If Blake Griffin doesn't get hurt and you guys lose the Big Monday game to OU, things could easily have changed.
 
Are you ags seriously saying that 48 year old dude, Davis, STILL hasn't used up his eligibility?

How much more hair loss is he going to have by the end of next season? Can he apply for an AARP card when he runs out of eligibility (I'd would like to type "graduates", but that's probably a much less likely outcome)?
 
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