Tenn. stays no. 1in RPI after loss tonight

There's still a lot of ball left to be played, but Memphis choking against Tennessee was the worst thing to happen to us. If Memphis wins that game and Texas wins out during the regular season, we're a lock for a #1 seed along with, most likely, Memphis, UNC and UCLA. Memphis goes to Detroit, UNC to Greensboro, UCLA to Phoenix and Texas to Houston. Now we're unlikely to get the #1 seed in Houston even if we desrve it.
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Texas beats UCLA and Tennessee in early part of season.

Down goes North Carolina. Down goes UCLA.

Down goes Kansas to Texas.

Down goes Duke. Down goes Memphis. Down goes Tennessee.

I seriously think Texas should be #2 or #3 next poll. Last loss was on 1/30 and all of the teams in the top 7 (except Texas) have lost since then. 2 of those teams were teams that Texas has already beaten and one of those losses was Kansas losing to Texas. Texas hasn't played Memphis or North Carolina so we don't have an argument there...except in the case of Memphis where we can say we beat Tenn and Tenn beat them, but either way put Texas at least as #3. And to relate this to this thread....that puts Tenn behind Texas.
 
So who do we pull for in the UNC-Duke game next week? Is their a chance that a Duke win propels them over us? Will UNC fall enough for us to jump them? A UNC win does not appear to help us. Is their game irrelevant?
 
Vic: The jumping probably would depend on whether you were talking polls or RPI.

In the polls, I don't think a Duke win would move Duke past Texas unless Texas lost a game.

In the RPI, RPIforecast.com projects Duke jumping Texas at the end of the regular season.

Then there are the conference tournaments. As I posted yesterday, I think Texas is in a tough spot. It could win the B12, sure, but I think that three games in three days could be detrimental to their NCAA performance. And if they don't win, there's a good chance that Tennessee, Memphis, UNC/Duke and UCLA will, and Texas would be much more likely to end up as a No. 2.

I guess my opinion about your question is that we need to look at it again in about a week...
 
Too much still to play, by everyone.

Dook has already won over UNC, plays them once more in regular season, and probably in their conference tourney.

DayGlo has UK (don't overlook BCG late in the regular season) and Florida coming up, plus the SEC tourney (Vandy again?).

UCLA has No.8 Stanford coming up, who plays No.22 Wazzu, then there's the Pac-10 tourney.

Memphis is the only one who's probably direct line to a #1 seed, playing only, who, Tulane, USM, AUB, and SMU? Then the C-USA tourney, not much competition there.

Predictions:

1. Memphis wins out regular season, wins their tourney, #1 seed.

2. Day-Glo, UNC, Dook, UCLA, and Stanford, all lose at least one more each, some more in conference tourney play.

3. Kansas wins out regular season, possibly wins over Texas in Big XII final (if history is any gage), gets a #1 seed.

4. Texas wins out regular season, loses in Big XII final to KU, still gets a #1 seed (see 2. above).

My 2 cents.
 
What is the rationale behind the thinking that Memphis would go to Houston over Texas should both be #1 seeds? I understand that the committee allegedly tries to keep travel time down for top seeds, but do they start at the very top (#1 national seed) and work their way down, or do they try to average things out a bit?

The driving distance from Memphis to Houston (~ 650 miles) is not all that different than it is to Detroit (~ 750 miles). As the crow flies, the difference is a little more prounounced, but not so much that it would mean much more than about 15 minutes more flying time. Quite obviously, the difference between a trip from Auston to Houston and Austin to Phoenix is huge.

Is the monkey wrench Tennessee?
 
Blonthang, KU and UT will not both be #1 seeds. It's more likely than that that both will be 2s. But it's most likely IMO if UT doesn't lose until the conference final that they'll still be a 1 and KU no better than a 2 as UT's profile is far better and are the "best" team of the two. I think Bob disagrees with this and hopefully he's wrong that UT needs to win the whole conference tournament to keep the 1 seed. But you never know.

Jimmy, if Memphis is deemed a better 1 seed by the committee than Texas, then the rules state that Memphis gets first dibs on playing as close to home as possible. Houston is the closest Regional to Memphis. Detroit isn't much further and hopefully Texas will have a strong enough case to allow the committee to ship Memphis to Detroit and put Texas in Houston, but after reading some other posts and sites and looking at what happened with Florida and Ohio State last year (Florida to St. Louis and Ohio State to San Antonio, even though St. Louis isn't much closer to Gainesville than SA), there's no t a lot of reason to think the committee would give Texas the Houston region if they think Memphis is more deserving of their 1 seed. I thought a few days ago the committee might give UT a break, but now I've switched on that, but, again, you never know.

However, if Memphis loses another game, it'll be looked at as a bad loss, so in that case if Texas keeps their winning streak alive until at least the Big XII Final, then there's definitely a better chance UT can get Houston.
 
So the committee would send Memphis to Houston over Detroit if that travel distance was 1 mile shorter, and willfully send Texas another 1,000 miles out of its way? That seems completely contradictory to the idea of "minimizing" travel for the top seeds. If they have no discretion for situations like this, then they've created an illogical, arbitrary rule.

Of course, this is not out of character for the NCAA.
 
I think Duke is more likely to jump over us because being perceived as better with otherwise equal performances, so I'm pulling for UNC.
 
While it seems preposterous and blatantly unfair to potentially have the #1 seed (Memphis) save 100 miles by going to Houston instead of Detroit, while sending #1 seed Texas (and possibly #2 overall) 1000 extra miles away to one of the other regionals, and potentially face a big home-court disadvantage in later rounds against UCLA in Phoenix or Xavier in Detroit (or the UNC/Duke loser in Charlotte) -- it appears that the rules allow or even encourage the committee to do exactly that.

How completely suckariffic would that be?
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One thing to consider when trying to guess if Memphis will be placed in Houston--the committee is supposed to consider whether a school or conference has been recently and frequently taken away from its natural region.

Last year, Memphis was a 2 seed in San Antonio, instead of St. Louis. The year before it was a 1 seed in Oakland, though the closest regionals were in Atlanta and Minneapolis.

Of course, the top seeded Big 12 teams haven't exactly received the most beneficial locations. It seems that Kansas was always doomed to go play on the west coast somewhere. Top Big 12 team and regional in which it was placed with nearer or conference oriented geographical option in parantheses:

2007--Kansas in San Jose (San Antonio)
2006--Texas in Atlanta (no clear better option)
2005--OSU in Chicago (Austin) (OSU would have had to face Illinois in Chicago, too)
2004--OSU in East Rutherford (St. Louis)
2003--Texas in San Antonio
2002--Kansas in Madison (toss up with Lexington)
2001--ISU in Anaheim (San Antonio)
2000--ISU in Auburn Hills (which might have been the nearest spot, Austin being the nearest alternative, but ISU had to go up against Mich. State in the regional finals)

So, generally, the top Big 12 representative hasn't gotten favorable locations to play. In the last 8 years, the top seeded Big 12 team has been moved away from a clearly more logical option no less than four times. In one other year, there was no good option at all. In one other year, the nearest option for the Big 12 champ was 50 miles from the campus of the Big 10 champ, who it faced in the regional finals.

Meanwhile, top Pac 10 team was placed in a regional that wasn't played West of the Rockies once--2002. Top ACC team was never placed outside the East or South region, and in many instances, 2002 for example, the top two ACC teams get both East and South locations.

Just saying.

Edit: Looking at the rule, I see the committee is only supposed to consider the last 5 years. During that period, one sees the top Big 12 team got its "natural region" once--2003 with Texas in San Antonio. The other four years had 3 teams going out of the region and one team not even having a good option anywhere.

That being the case, I wonder if the committee is going to try to get Texas into Houston no matter what.
 
Just to make it clear, I do not believe that KU can get a No. 1 over Texas if Texas wins the B12 outright.

I do think that if Texas does not win the B12 tournament, and Tennessee, Memphis, Duke or UNC and UCLA do win theirs, Texas almost certainly will be a two seed.

I think Memphis is going to wind up with first choice on regionals. After that, it all depends. I could foresee Memphis going to Charlotte and Texas to Houston, but only if Texas is ahead of UNC/Duke on the S-curve.

If not, it'll be Texas almost certainly to Phoenix, either as the No. 1 or the No. 2.
 
It seems to me we are screwed, as far as Houston is concerned, whether we are a #1 or #2 seed.

If we are #1 seed Memphis will get Houston.

And, if we are #2 we will not get Houston because the committee will not place the highest #1 seed against the highest #2 seed (or second or third highest #2 seed for that matter)
 
Bob, in that case UT's seed is contingent on the result of the Big XII title game, which ends an hour before the brackets are released. That's not enough timw for the committee to make a change. If UT loses on the Friday or Saturday of the Big XII, then the loss could hurt.

Or are you saying that the Big XII tourney title matters only if UT loses a regular season game?
 
I'm saying if the B12 tournament result matters to Texas, the committee is going to take into account. Whether that's a pair of brackets, or a (gasp!) delay in announcement, it's going to happen.

However, if Texas doesn't lose again until B12 Sunday, I do think the committee would be safe in assigning them wherever they want, with whatever seed they want.

They would know more in that regard because the ACC and SEC games will be over well before the B12 game.
 
I think it depends on the results of the other tournaments. To go to Houston, Texas needs to be No. 2 on the S-curve.

They can get there from here, but some people have to lose, probably North Carolina and Tennessee.
 
I continue to be confused. How do we go to Houston if Memphis is #1 and we're #2, a little committee "charity" notwithstanding?
 
Sorry, I screwed up using google maps. I did Memphis to Charlotte then Charlotte to Houston. Oops. According to Google maps Memphis to Charlotte is 635 miles and Memphis to Houston is 650 miles. But it takes 5 min longer to drive to Charlotte.

I thinkwhether Memphis goes to Houston or Charlotte is dependent on which side of Memphis, Univ. of Memphis is located, which I do not know.
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OK, if Memphis-Charlotte and Memphis-Houston is a draw, then it clearly makes the most sense to send Memphis to Charlotte, Texas to Houston, Tennessee to Detroit, and Duke to Phoenix.
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