Still More Tournament Thoughts

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outlookdude

250+ Posts
I see seven teams competing for three spots in the NCAA tournament. I think it looks a lot like this….

Texas (19-13)
Going for them – RPI #35, SOS #10. Two wins over Texas Tech (#23), and one over Kansas State (#38)
Against them – Finished the season 4-6 (although three losses were to top 5 RPI teams). Losses to Missouri (#79), and Oklahoma State (#86).
Will it be considered – Texas played 12 games against RPI top 25 teams. Only UConn and Duke played more. But, Texas played 7 games against top 6 RPI teams making the schedule extremely top heavy.

Michigan (17-12)
Going for them – 2 wins vs Ohio State (RPI #8), plus Iowa (#17).
Against them – RPI #55, SOS #30, Losses to Detroit (#183), Illinois (#168) in their last game, and Minnesota (#119) twice. 5-5 to finish with two bad losses. Worse W/L record.
Common Opponents - Losses to aTm 49-67, Iowa State 47-60, and Michigan State 56-6356-69. Win against Kansas 75-67.
Michigan has three pretty good wins. But, they also have four VERY bad losses and a worse overall record. Big losses to Iowa State and aTm do not help their case. I would give Texas an edge here. But, they do have the big wins that Texas is missing.

Purdue (20-11)
Going for them – Wins over DePaul (#11), Iowa (#17), and twice vs Penn State (#33). Finished 6-4. Better W/L record.
Against them – RPI #48, SOS #47 Loss to Wisconsin (#77) twice, Northwestern (#60), and Michigan (#55)
Common Opponents - Losses to aTm 55-100, and Michigan State 57-76
Purdue’s good wins may be a little better than Texas, but the losses are really probably just as bad. Slightly better overall record with a weaker schedule and got hammered by aTm. Close call here. I’ll be a homer and give it to Texas.

Northwestern (18-13)
Going for them – Two wins vs Ohio State (#8)
Against them – RPI #60, SOS #33. Finished 4-6. Losses to Minnesota (#119), Indiana (#172), Wisconsin (#77), and Michigan (#55). Worse W/L record.
Common Opponents - Win against Missouri 79-68. Losses to Michigan State 62-72, and 25-56.
Do the really bad losses outweigh the two really good wins? Almost the same overall record with a weaker schedule. Another close call, but the orange shades still lead me to Texas.

TCU (21-9)
Going for them – Wins vs Oklahoma (#21), and Houston (#24) Finish 7-2 with one game left. Better W/L record.
Against them – RPI #63, SOS #91 Losses to Air Force (#276), New Mexico (#155), Virginia (#62), Fresno State (#54), and BYU (#50)
Lost to Iowa St 59-64, and aTm 66-91. Wins vs Sam Houston 94-76, and Oklahoma 76-69.
Overall I don’t think the good wins are any better than what Texas has, but it is hard to ignore the one against OU, who beat Texas twice. A better record against a much weaker schedule. Losses to Iowa State and aTm don’t clear this up much. But, they do have two really very bad losses. Slam dunk for Texas without that OU game. I’ll still take Texas here, just because I can.

Syracuse (22-9)
Going for them – Wins vs Ohio State (#8), Marquette (#26), Louisville (#37), and St John’s (#32) Finished 6-4. Better W/L record.
Against them – RPI #56, SOS #84
Lost to Baylor 43-77.
Better wins than Texas. No really bad losses, although they took a beat-down against Baylor. Much weaker schedule. I think Texas is better, but also that they have the stuff the committee will love. I would be surprised if Texas got in ahead of Syracuse.

Charlotte (23-9)
Going for them – Win vs Dayton (#43) Finished 6-4. Better W/L record.
Against them – RPI #58, SOS #89, Losses to Old Dominion (#64), La Salle (#209)
No common opponents.
Hard to be sure what to make of this one. If you don’t play anyone it is difficult to judge. The committee historically has liked this type team. I wouldn’t put them ahead of Texas, but it may go the other way.

So, in the end I give a close call to Texas, Syracuse, and Charlotte for those three spots. The problem is that TCUOU game, and that I think the committee will want to take at least one of the three Big 10 schools. OU and Ohio State should be dropped about 5 spots in the seedings for not taking care of business for us.
 
I agree that these squads are among the most likely bubble teams, but it's important to point one thing out. Most of the factors (other than RPI) you mention, such as win-loss record, weakness (or not) of schedule, who teams have won against as well as who they've lost to, has all been taken into account in the RPI. They're not separate entities but rather the components that make up the RPI. That's why it makes sense to simply look at the RPI, or at least let that be the primary factor in the decision making process. Clearly Texas has a stronger RPI and SOS than any of these squads, and by some margin. IMO the Horns are far and away the most obvious, and easiest choice for the committee among the so-called bubble teams - I just can't see any of the others getting an invite in front of us.
 
Hope you're right, overseas.
Pretty neat and detailed post, outlook. Fun to look at the competition and see how we (Texas) matchs up, especially against common opponents.
 
Well Babhorn I don't know what the committee will do....I just know what they should do! It would really defy all logic if the Horns don't get an invite.
 
The fans in Charlotte would argue that you can’t get a higher RPI unless you play different teams, and that they are a victim of their schedule. That they can only beat the teams that they play. I’m not saying that is right. But, that is the other argument.

The committee typically loves them some underdogs that have a chance. But, the late season loss to La Salle does not help them.
 
I don't agree . That's like giving an extra automatic bid to any conference that chooses to have a tournament. Conferences choose whether to send their regular season champion or hold a conference tournament for the automatic bid. Some of those conferences know that they are likely a one bid conference.

And I'm not arguing that Texas should or should not get an NCAA tournament invitation. I'm pretty conflicted about that. I don't see the kinds of big wins or the strong finish that was present in the past when Texas has gone to the NCAA with a losing conference record. Texas had its fate in its hands when the team went to Stillwater. A win there would have given the team an 8-8 conference finish and spared them the 2nd round match-up with A&M in the tournament.
 
Conferences already get an automatic bid. You could get rid of the conference tournaments, but there will not be automatics because someone blew a tournament. This conversation is about how to complete the bracket. No matter how you do that not everyone is going to agree. Bubble teams left out can’t really complain. The answer would be to not let yourself be a bubble team. But, it is still an interesting conversation.

Looking at the conversation on the Boneyard there was some comment about the Texas record vs top 25 teams. Did 2-10 help or hurt? I have long thought that was a pretty simplistic view of WCBB. There is a huge gap between the teams at the top and the rest of the top 25.

Texas lost 7 games to teams in the RPI top 6. To put that into perspective those teams had a cumulative record of 174-14. They lost 6 of those 14 to each other. No one was beating these teams. The Texas schedule was incredibly top heavy and it makes little sense to penalize a team for losing games that 50+ other teams in the tournament would have also lost. Against the rest of the top 25 Texas was 2-3, which is much better than a lot of teams that will be in the field.

Does Texas get any credit for that? Or, does the committee go with the Charlotte argument that Texas has already had their chance at the top teams and now it is their turn?

I told you what my reasoning would be. I have no idea what will happen.
 
All I am saying is that if a team is in a conference whose automatic bid goes to the tournament champ, then I don't think winning the regular season in a weak conference makes a team a better choice for the tournament than a mid-pack team in a strong conference. At 7-9, Texas is still mid-pack.

Beyond that, I don't even want to get into the nitty gritty of who the last 4 teams in and out should be. All I know is that the Longhorns had a lot of chances to stay off the bubble. They had at least 4 winnable conference games that they failed to finish strong. So whatever happens, happens. Of course, in my heart, I still hope they Horns get in and I'll be sad if they're not.

On a side note, something Gail said sounded as if Texas might take a WNIT bid this year if they aren't in the NCAA tourney. This would be a significant departure from years past.
 
Ah. But, I LIKE the nitty gritty. If Texas was obviously in I would be looking at nitty gritty to see where they should be seeded.

I also want Texas to be in, and agree that if not they cannot complain regardless. They have had chances to take the decision away from the committee.

I know that Coach Conradt was always against the WNIT. I tend to think that if someone wants to play you then you should get on the court and go after it. But, I hope it doesn’t come to that.
 
Other things to consider...Houston was ranked #22 in the last ESPN poll, and was expected to win the C-USA tournament, which meant that they would have been the only team from that conference to get in the NCAA tournament.

Tulane upset Houston in their tournament and will face UCF for the tourney championship. Houston will still get in, but now either Tulane or UCF will also be in, which means one of the bubble teams are bumped further down the ladder.

There are good arguments for Texas getting in (RPI and SOS), but one of the bubble spots has been lost.

I hope it isn't us, and I hope we get in the NCAA.

Something to ponder about the WNIT is hosting games. The FEC always has entertainment bills lined up. I think if TX declined participating, that would probably have a lot to do with it. I don't know what the schedule looks like for the FEC but I'm pretty sure it doesn't include hosting WNIT games. Again, just something to ponder. And as always, just my opinion.
 
Why not host the games at Gregory Gym? Considering the attendance figures this year coupled with the more intimate size of the gym, I think the experience might prove to be helpful for the Horns.
 
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