Stage 18: TT

H

Hu_Fan

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For fodder... some math on Thursday's Time Trial (TT)
Consider Andy to be in the zero spot for calculating where the no. 2 thru no. 6 spots look against each other. Ie., all these number relative to the No. 2 spot as of now (that is 2.26 back of Contador).

Andy is in 2nd place in GC (2.26 back in GC)
Frank is .59 behind 2nd place (3.25 back in GC)
Lance is 1.29 behind 2nd place (3.55 back in GC)
Andreas is 2.18 behind 2nd place (4.44 back in GC)
Wiggins is 2.27 behind 2nd place (4.53 back in GC)

Those times, then, are what a rider needs to overcome to move into 2nd place, against Andy -- plus ride at least 1 sec better than the others in this small group.

Keeping Wiggins out of the top 3:
Lance is 0.58 ahead of Wiggins
Andreas is 0.09 ahead of Wiggins

That's what those two Astana riders have to look to do to better Wiggins, while also overtaking Andy and Frank.

Summary:
Out the starting block, Wiggins goes, then Andreas, then Lance. The two Astana riders will have their marks to make in order to stay ahead of Wiggins going into the Fri stage and then Sat to finish on Ventoux.

They have to then hope their times are, respectively:
Lance -- 1.30 better than Andy, and .31 better than Frank
Andreas -- 2.19 better than Andy, and 1.20 better than Frank

Odds:
Keeping Ahead of Wiggins:
I like the odds for Lance and Andreas since they FOLLOW Wiggins, and they have to nose him out. They will know what they have to do all along the route. It won't be easy, but at least they follow Wiggins.

Overcoming Andy and Frank:
If they ride hard enough to best Wiggins, they should be able to best both Andy and Frank. An x-factor is that Andy and Frank may have left too much on Stage 17 today.

It's all on DVR, but I plan to watch live. That's for sure.
I hope to see a 1-2-3 Astana at the conclusion.
Or, close enough that Ventoux might make it so.

GOAL:
Push the Schlecks out of the way tomorrow, to keep them back on Ventoux.
Hold off Wiggins enough to finish him off on Sat.

And there you have it!!!
 
LA will attack on Ventoux after kicking *** tomorrow....
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Cancellara just went 2nd at the first time check behind Ignatiev. Looks like this race will be wide open.

cyclingnews.com is reporting that Lance's sponsor for next year will be Radio Shack.
 
Cancellara is still 18 seconds back at the second time check. That means that Wiggins is probably the favorite to take the stage now.

Reports are that teamradioshack.com is registered to Lance's agent Bill Stapleton.

Cancellara did finish in first place by 12 seconds, but that is still a mark that will likely be passed by the top GC riders.
 
I'm amazed by what Cancellara did between the 3rd and 4th time checks. He gained roughly 20 seconds on everyone else who currently sits in the top 5. It will be interesting to see how the GC contenders do. We'll find out shortly.
 
It's raining. That could screw up the GC contenders efforts.

There are some big time gaps. Only 4 riders are within a minute of Cancellara. We could easily see 2 or 3 minutes between some of the top contenders.
 
Cancellara may have taken the stage regardless, but with the rain, I definitely don't see anyone catching him. Lance loves these conditions, so that could help him among the podium contenders.
 
Hold that thought. Evans has turned it on a bit, and has made up some serious time. Sanchez looks to challenge as well.
 
teamradioshack.com is registerd to CSE Cycling, LLC. same address as CSE, Stapleton's company.

looking forward to the news and to hear who else is involved, but it's a bit of a downer after thinking Nike would be the main sponsor
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So much for that. The leg between the 3rd and 4th checks seems to be the critical point of the TT. Cancellara rode this section very well, and no one seems up to the task to match him. Evans went from :27 behind to 1:00 in that 8.5KM section, losing over :40 to Cancellara. Brutal. Sanchez's pace has slowed as well.
 
This is going to be close for 2nd and third overall. Wiggins and Klöden are neck and neck, and both have put a bunch of time on Armstrong and the Schlecks. Armstrong has passed Frank Schleck, but I don't know if he will gain enough on Andy.
 
Here is another example of how well Cancellara did between the 3rd and 4th checks. Wiggins had a :16 advantage at the 3rd check, and was trailing Cancellara by :27 at the 4th. Thats :43 in roughly 5 miles. Wow.
 
Wiggins passed Klöden in the overall by :02. Lance trying to hold on, and he does. Now we wait for the Schlecks. Looks like Armstrong will be in 3rd overall, with still quite a bit of ground to make up on Andy Schleck.
 
I think positions 1 and 2 are probably nailed down with four riders separated by 34 seconds fighting for the final podium spot. Advantage LA.

Standing, Rider, Gaps
1. CONTADOR Alberto
2. SCHLECK Andy, + 04' 11"
3. ARMSTRONG Lance, + 05' 25"
4. WIGGINS Bradley, + 05' 36"
5. KLÖDEN Andréas, + 05' 38"
6. SCHLECK Frank, + 05' 59"
 
WoW. Based on the results of the TT today, how huge was it that Lance dropped Wiggins before the top of the last climb yesterday to Le Grand Bornand. Outnumbered, he did all that work entirely on his own.

It was a sustained effort, first by roughing up Wiggins' Garmin teammate Vandevelde in their chase group, then finally accelerating to leave Wiggins behind before summiting alone and racing to the finish.

That huge individual effort might mean the difference between a place on the podium or not.

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So tell me if you agree. Seems the biggest difference between 7 in a row Lance and Lance today is the time trial abilities. They showed a graphic that he won six of the seven final time trials during his win streak, and the other he was third. He was 16th today, and 10th in the initial. I think Lance is still one of the top three climbers along with Andy Schleck and Alberto Contador.

If Lance is to come back and challenge next year on a team he's leading, does he have a good chance to improve his TT abilities? AC appears to be where LA once was...the best climber and top TT specialist. Will be very tough to beat, but we'll have to see what kind of team he has. Any too.
 
On a separate note, at least Greg Lemond is consistent...believes anyone and everyone who is a dominant cyclist is on dope.

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LeMond blasts Contador

By Suzanne Halliburton | Thursday, July 23, 2009, 02:42 PM

ANNECY, France — Greg LeMond, the American who won three Tours de France, is now pondering whether Alberto Contador is using performance enhancing drugs.

LeMond, whose comments appeared in the French newspaper Le Monde, said Contador’s Tour performance appears to good to be true, without Contador using illegal methods.

Coincidentally, LeMond also used to say the same about Lance Armstrong, using the same newspaper as a sort of bully pulpit.
 
Completely agree. The collar bone injury certainly didn't help, but even without that, this was not a typical year of prep for Lance. If his motivation to win rekindles to what it was when he was dominating the Tour, then next year could be very exciting. Age will obviously still have an impact, but it should still be something to see. I can't wait to see who ends up on his team.
 
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