Stage 17 : Bourg-Saint-Maurice > Le Grand-Bornand

T

triplehorn

2,500+ Posts
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'Nuff said.


This should be an epic stage.
 
Any way for Lance and Contador to race each other towards the finish outside of the extremely unlikely scenario of Contador not being able to keep up with his non-Astana rivals.
 
The Schleck brothers are going to try to break Contador by isolating him. This will necessarily involve trying to punish Lance and Kloden. Lance bridged a big gap Tuesday on the steeps to catch up and reconstitute support for Contador for the rest of the last big climb. The spoilers think they are onto something and the layout of this stage is the perfect wilderness to pounce.

If that happens, not only could Contador lose the lead, but Lance could lose a podium position. Even if everything stays the same, this stage is pivotal.
 
Man, how about big Thor? What a hell of a way to pick up 6 sprint points on the hardest day of the race. I guess if you know you can't beat Cav on normal sprint finishes you have to take points where you can. I wouldn't bet against him taking the the next sprint points as well.

It looks like the first real attacks from the big boys will most certainly come on the Col de Romme. Even though it is only a 1st category climb, when you follow it with the Columbiere over that distance of about 30KM, the two of them together over that distance definitely rate HC. I expect Contador to be attacked by Saxobank, but I don't think they'll hurt him. He hasn't shown any weakness yet and I expect him to have good support from (at least) Kloden and Armstrong. Maybe even Popo or Zubeldia as well.

I'm hoping Armstrong (and Contador of course) can put some time on Wiggins. If Lance goes into the TT tomorrow with just 9 seconds advantage over Wiggins, his second place is probably in danger unless he pulls out an old school Lance Armstrong time trial.

I'm also hoping this stage comes together for a battle to the finish among the principal players of the GC.
 
Here we go.

The last 2 big climbs up next which, taken together, make one hellish obstacle.

It's set up now for a major showdown !
 
The Schleck brothers have temporarily peeled off Lance from Contador and Kloden. Lance(GC 2nd) with Wiggins(GC 3rd). If the Schlecks can push it to separate Kloden, Contador could get stepped on.
 
Nice acceleration by Lance to try to drop Wiggins. Wiggins hangs on, but his Garmin pacesetter Vandevelde can't. Net gain for Lance there.

WoW. Vandevelde makes it back.
 
Contador blasts off, but after the Schlecks respond, the net result is Contador dropped his team mate. Not quite worthy of a Darwin award, but not a great strategic move either. Self inflicted isolation accomplished though the summit is close enough that AC will survive it.
 
Well, that went about as I expected.

The Schleck's couldn't drop Contador and Lance loses his second place to Andy. He did get almost a minute on Wiggins, so he'll have a fighting chance to stay on the podium.
 
Watching the race recap (after watching it live) I think Contador did not race smart for his team when he attacked and thereby allowed the Schleck brothers to gain time into 2nd and 3rd over Lance and Adre.

All Alberto had to do was defend and stay on the wheels of the Schecks. He had no reason to assist them putting time on anyone else which would include fellow Astana riders. Wiggins is not a factor. He won't do anything on Vonteux.

As hard as the Astana has ridden for Alberto, I'm frankly viewing Alberto as kind of a inexperienced rider who is too taken away with being in 1st place, including doing that on a team with Lance.

Twice Lance has ridden in team support to hold back contenders while losing seconds to Alberto... then had to ride himself back into podium contention after doing that. Today Lance rode to push(hold) Wiggins back, and then had to ride all out to get seconds back -- mostly because Alberto decided to attack and push both Kloden and Lance back and let the Schecks move up.

It's like Alberto is a baby riding among men with class and maturity -- but Alberto has the legs to ride better, just not the savy to ride with additional team etiquette -- which could put an All-Astana team on the podiums. If Alberto would just take yellow but also ride for his team mates as well.

Alberto has this race pretty much sewn up, but he keeps riding like a rider who isn't nearly the savy rider Lance always was, and Lance had a lot more to worry about with contenders than does Alberto this year.

My 2 cents.
 
What a great stage. A great race to the finish and the green jersey, white jersey, polka dot jersey and team competition were decisively put out of reach on the same stage.

The podium is still in question depending if Armstrong and/or Kloden can gain time in the TTT. More fun tomorrow.
 
Screw Contador. ******** move that cost two of his teammates.

Lance's Twitter:

"Getting lots of question why AC attacked and dropped Kloden. I still haven't figured it out either. Oh well."

Leipheimer:

" If Andreas finishes 4th in GC by less than 2' from 3rd, we know where he lost it. . ."

I want Contador to ride off the side of a mountain. (Note: I'm not wishing him death or injury.)
 
Didn't realize that Lance had (temporarily, I believe) fallen out of the top three. Aside from Contador's top spot, there will most likely be two more podium shakeups between tomorrow's time trial and Saturday's stage to Mont Ventoux.

Tomorrow, the Schleck's will most likely give way to Armstrong, Wiggins, and Kloden. Depending on how much time they lose in the time trial, it may be possible for them to make it up on Mont Ventoux. The fight for the second and third podium spots probably will not be decided until the end of Saturday's stage 20.

Very compelling time trial tomorrow. Armstrong has 58 seconds on Wiggins and has the advantage of starting after him, but I think he'll have to have a great ride to not lose all of that 58 second cushion. Wiggins will certainly destroy the Schlecks, it just remains to be seen how far he can move up . I expect Kloden to kick some *** tomorrow, too. I guess we'll see how motivated Lance and Andreas are to improve their own GC spots.
 
Looking back at the results of the Stage 1 ITT:

2nd -Contador: + 00' 18"
3rd -Wiggins: + 00' 19"
4th -Kloden: + 00' 22"
10th -Armstrong: + 00' 40"
18th -A. Schleck: + 01' 00"
67th -F.Schleck: + 01' 36"

By comparison, the ITT tomorrow is a lot more flat, which is less of an advantage for the Schlecks relative to the first ITT.

And here we are after today's stage:

1.CONTADOR A.AST7 2h 27' 09"
2.SCHLECK A.SAX 02' 26"
3.SCHLECK F.SAX 03' 25"
4.ARMSTRONG L.AST 03' 55"
5.KLÖDEN A.AST 04' 44"
6.WIGGINS B.GRM 04' 53

Going to be real tough for Lance to claim 2nd after tomorrow's ITT.
 
Contador proved today that he would rather risk losing the TDF than allow Armstrong a chance, even a slight one, to win it.
 
You can't really judge what Lance might do in the ITT tomorrow from the first ITT since he went first and didn't have any decent time checks to use to gauge his performance. That was also a long time ago and each of these men is in different condition than they were back then.
 
Here's an attempt at apply the relative positions from the opening day's TT, and factoring that in to the current GC standings.
The relative finishes on that first TT would be this:
0(first) Contador
.01, Wiggins
.04, Kloden
.22, Lance
.42, Andy S.
1.18, Frank S.

Adding those to today's finish, and you've had these relative positions if that exact TT were run tomorrow.

Contador, at zero (top of GC)
Andy S., 3' 8" back
Lance, 4' 17" back
Frank S., 4' 43" back
Kloden, 4' 48" back
Wiggins, 4' 54" back

Given that "exercise" on paper, only 37 seconds separates the 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th places.

Given the TT tomorrow is longer than the first one, and has it's other differences, to include as importantly there have been x-number of mountain stages and race miles behind the riders -- it remains to be seen how this top group of six riders can shake it out tomorrow.

Factors:
Experience and ability to recover after today's stage. Does Wiggins know how to recover overnight as well as Lance? If any of you have done marathons or triathlons (I have done both) you know something about training for recovery. I'd put Lance at the very top of that in both science and capability. Can the Schleck Brothers recover from today's ride where they led with the hammer all the way?

Experience in riding both well and conservatively tomorrow -- with a plan to have something in the tank for Venteux in two more days. If I'm a betting man, I know that Lance rides with an understanding that in any stage he's actually conditioning for a subsequent stage. By now he's had two Alpine stages to gauge how to ride his own tempo and have something for an uphill accelerating. I'm betting he will finish well enough in the TT to be in position to then lay something down on Venteux when the other contenders may hit that final climb on Saturday and find they left it all on Wed and Thur.

What's hard to realize from an armchair is how much of this kind of racing is about pacing and recovery. It is as much about training(conditioning) for recovery as anything else. I'm still not betting against Lance before this race is over. We might end Saturday with several of these top six riders being dropped without mercy late in the day come Saturday. Lance has trained for over 10 years to know how the body holds up for 20 race days of output and recovery... output and recovery... over and over... before the 21st day into Paris.

Tomorrow the Schlecks have to hold their times against Wiggins and Lance after having drained their tanks today. AND they have to do that while trying to have something left for Saturday's Ventoux ride. Do they have enough experience to know how to race-manage all that? More than Lance, or Kloden? I doubt it.

PREDICTIONS:
Outside chance that Lance actually wins the TT and a stage win for this tour.

Very good chance the GC after tomorrow is Contador, Lance and Kloden in that order. Kloden can just about match Wiggins in a TT, so there's a chance. I'm not counting on the Schlecks to have a good day.

Saturday's ride to the top of Ventoux could be so-so, or it could provide a slice of Tour history. I don't believe Lance has ever won a stage there and has the memory of giving it to Pantini that year. If Alberto falls apart on that stage and Lance must ride to push ahead of any of the non-Astana contenders, he might have something of the Old Lance in him to accelerate up the climb and actually win the stage and do so with enough minutes to even take the yellow in what will be seen as one of the wildest turnarounds in Tour history to rival what LeMond did going into Paris for his first tour win.
 
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