So who do the HF gurus think is coming?

caryhorn

caryhorn

5,000+ Posts
Godz, and Jaykaris,

I know its still early, but you guys follow recruiting closely, (at least Jay did last year; are you still here Jay?) so who do each of you think are most likely to sign with the good guys come February? I really can't get any kind of feel for this from what I'm reading on this board.

Can you give a guy something here?
 
Far, far from a guru, but I'll weigh in, @caryhorn ....

Based on 25 slots (24-26), there's a 98.765% chance we land these guys:

CB Obi Eboh
DE Andrew Fitzgerald
DE Malcolm Roach
DT Gerald Wilbon
LB Demarco Boyd
OG Tope Imade
OG Denzel Okafor
QB Shane Buechele
TE Peyton Aucoin
WR Davion Curtis
WR Collin Johnson
WR Reggie Hemphill-Mapps
(Walk-on) Kicker Max Allan (not counted in total)

The rest of the class (no odds, just best guess):

ATH Lil'Jordan Humphrey
DB Chris Brown
DB Eric Cuffee
S Brandon Jones
DE Erick Fowler
DT D'Andre Christmas-Giles
DT Marcel Southall
LB Dontavious Jackson
LB Jeffrey McCulloch
OT Jean Delance
RB Devwah Whaley
TE Kelvin Lucky

Surprise Recruit
DT Kendell Jones
 
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Godz,

If we the guys in the first list, and get guys in the second list of equal star ratings (maybe not the same guys, but equal in talent), do you think that gets us a top 10-15 class? I would guess yes, but I really do not know.
 
caryhorn said:
Godz,

If we the guys in the first list, and get guys in the second list of equal star ratings (maybe not the same guys, but equal in talent), do you think that gets us a top 10-15 class? I would guess yes, but I really do not know.
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Who cares about effin class rank. I want a class full of kick-*** football players. I couldn't give a sh*t about the number of stars!
 
longhorn47 said:
Who cares about effin class rank. I want a class full of kick-*** football players. I couldn't give a sh*t about the number of stars!
Click to expand...

Generally, the schools who recruit 3,4,5 star talent do better than schools who recruit 1,2,3 star talent. That's just a fact.

I hear what you are saying though, as we've all seen lots of 4 and 5 star talent come here over the years and not pan out. Certainly, what we want, the bottom line, is kick *** football players who can be coached up and win games.

By the way, I went ahead and did a little work myself, and found the answer to my question. We would definitely have a top ten class if Charlie closes out the class with the players Godz listed above.
 
caryhorn said:
Godz,

If we the guys in the first list, and get guys in the second list of equal star ratings (maybe not the same guys, but equal in talent), do you think that gets us a top 10-15 class? I would guess yes, but I really do not know.
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Top ten, and the Charlie haters will be eating crow for two years in a row.
 
Re: Star Ratings

Just for grins I checked on Alabama's stars for recruits as designated by Rivals100 for the period of 2011 - 2014. 71 out of 100 total recruits were rated as either four or five star. In my view, Alabama is a perfect test case of the rating system and the ability to develop them as Alabama has been arguably the most consistently superior program in the last few years. It seems to me that four and five star ratings do mean something. We used to get them and we used to brag about that fact. It sounds like opinions are changing a bit on that front.
 
Because Charlie has a track record of identifying lower stars that turn out to be NFL talent.
 
Godz40acres said:
The rest of the class (no odds, just best guess):
ATH Lil'Jordan Humphrey
DB Chris Brown
DB Eric Cuffee
S Brandon Jones
DE Erick Fowler
DT D'Andre Christmas-Giles
DT Marcel Southall
LB Dontavious Jackson
LB Jeffrey McCulloch
OT Jean Delance
RB Devwah Whaley
TE Kelvin Lucky

Surprise Recruit
DT Kendell Jones
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Honestly, I'm not that confident we get both LBs - I'd say Jackson 80% and McCulloch 55%. If we don't get Jackson, then McCulloch goes to 30%.

Pretty confident we get S Brandon Jones. If not, Deontay Anderson could embrace the Force. It would be just as awesome to land both Jones and Anderson as it would be to get both LBs, Jackson and McCulloch.

We could take 4 DBs if we only get 1 LB. In that case, the 4th guy might be DeMarkus Acy.

We have a pretty good shot at flipping TE Peyton Aucoin's teammate, TE Irvin Smith. That could mean we don't get 4 DLmen, 2 LBs, or RB Devwah Whaley.

------------

I think most of you know that @jayakris is much better at this than moi. We need to hear his thoughts, along with @Joe Fan's and others' during this stinkin' Dead Period. Remember, what starts here on this thread changes the world.
 
I like where we are (and where we are about to be) at certain positions -- DB depth looks terrific. RB and WR depth look good. LB is almost there and trending in right direction (DJax and McCulloch). We appear to be resolving the QB saga. And if we land the two TEs we are supposed to land, then we should be better there as well (Texas TE recruiting has been a bleak black hole for too long).

But what is happening in the trenches? Well, there is good news and bad news.

I like what we are doing at OL much better than the DL. In fact I say we are in good position to wrap up a stellar OL class. As of today we have a good shot at finishing with some combo of Imade, Okafor, Delance, Hudson, Urquidez and Shackleford. Plus Aucoin, who is sort of an extended tackle. We are not there yet it is trending the right way for us. It has been so long since we have had a truly great OL class. On top of the incoming talent, with Gilbert/Mattox, our OL recruiting/training should now be finally unified with the overall offensive scheme. This was always a pet peeve of mine with Mack Brown and it's even gotten worse post-Brown. But now Gilbert and Mattox seem to know what they want and have a plan to get there. So, hopefully, we are all on the same page now -- and, if so, this OL class will pay huge dividends down the road.

DL recruiting, on the other hand, has been extremely disappointing. And, as we are closing in on NSD, things appear to be getting worse, not better. This late scramble for "second-tier" DTs is pretty troubling. The thing is, this was an absolutely loaded year in TX and LA at this position. And, back in the summer, it was looking fabulous with players like KJones, Jordan Elliott, J-Mad, Fowler, Thornton, Taylor. So good that we did not need to pursue players Chris Daniels despite ties we could have leveraged.

But the situation looks alot different now. Now we are throwing last-second hailmary's at guys like Daniels and Tanielu. If not for Wilbon, we would beyond screwed.

A good comparison for us is LSU since we have been competing for alot of the same players this class. You might think that, with rumors that Miles might lose his job, Texas would have been able to swoop in and scoop up a hot load of studs from the deepest DT recruiting class in years. But the opposite happened. As of today, LSU is positioned to finish with the #1 overall class, based in part off their stellar DT class. At DT, they already have Edwin Alexander and Glen Logan. Plus it looks like they will land Rashard Lawrence as well. On top of those guys, they are sitting well with Christmas-Giles, Ross Blacklock, Shavar Mauel and Stephon Taylor.

That is ridiculous. At a minimum, we should be able to sell playing time. Not to mention a good school history of putting DTs in the NFL. Plus, we have Strong and Haley. What the hell happened here? Our best hope now is that our recruiters make these kids look at LSU's depth chart. LSU has more young 4-stars on the roster just in front of this class. They really cant land everyone, right?

My guess is that we end up with Wilbon and either Giles or Taylor. Which is not bad. But, not what it could have or should have been. This class should have been a program-defining DL-class for the decade. Chances this deep DT recruit class presented just do not come around that often. We really blew it.

One last note, pull for Ogeron to take the rumored job at USC. He kills it with DL recruiting. Just get him out of the area completely.
 
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The 2015 OL class of Williams, Vahe, Major, Thomas, and Nicholson (ignoring Moore) could end up being great too. All could be multi-year starters. Doesn't hurt to have depth.
 
Players returning 8 CBS maybe 9. Safteys 6 need help. LBS 6 maybe 7 DES 8 DTS 6 These numbers include commitments.
WRS 14 OL 12.
 
Joe Fan said:
Plus, we have Strong and Haley. What the hell happened here?
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That is a good question. I read somewhere some criticism of Haley, regarding recruiting and coaching, which is why he was demoted/let go at LSU. I have not been impressed with the results he's gotten here.
 
caryhorn said:
That is a good question. I read somewhere some criticism of Haley, regarding recruiting and coaching, which is why he was demoted/let go at LSU. I have not been impressed with the results he's gotten here.
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Now that it has been brought up, I've been wondering that myself. The DL play was less than I expected, not completely horrible, but inconsistent.
 
With the departure of Ridgeway to the NFL, how much, if any, does that help with recruiting KJones and other DT targets?
 
eastexhorn said:
Players returning 8 CBS maybe 9. Safteys 6 need help. LBS 6 maybe 7 DES 8 DTS 6 These numbers include commitments.
WRS 14 OL 12.
Click to expand...

Saying "Returning" and "these numbers include commitments" does not make sense to me. There is a big difference in my mind. Some verbal commitments may end up signing elsewhere and some may not qualify academically as we saw last year with two.
 
BevoJoe said:
With the departure of Ridgeway to the NFL, how much, if any, does that help with recruiting KJones and other DT targets?
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It could be a difference maker - it's why I think we get Giles.

LSU is loaded with DL studs from this class AND last year's. Surely, some of them will figure out that sitting for the Tigers is < playing for The University of Texas.

Re: KJones... I picked him partly because of Ridge's departure and partly because he really likes UT and CS. It's just a gut feeling I have. Of course, that could be from eating my 97 year old Great-aunt's fruitcake.
 
Godz40acres said:
Re: KJones... I picked him partly because of Ridge's departure and partly because he really likes UT and CS. It's just a gut feeling I have. Of course, that could be from eating my 97 year old Great-aunt's fruitcake.
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Apparently Jones is such a grade risk, he may not be able to get into Alabama


Followup on above -- Higs thinks we will have 3 DTs signed on NSD. And would take a 4th if we can. He also thinks we will add a 3rd DE to the 2 already committed
-- "The DL position should have the most traction the month of January" --
Have to hope he is correct

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By way of contrast, he does not expect any more offers on OLs, other than who we already have coming in. Last year, we signed 6 (5 if you exclude Hodges). It is my hope that we sign 5 again. If so, then Okafor/Imade would be joined by 3 more from among -- Delance, Hudson, Urquidez, Shackleford. Not bad at all. If we sign 4 instead of 5, then my best guess is Delance and Shackleford.

For the moment, we are much better at OL recruiting than we are DL recruiting.
 
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