I know some out there still feel we are a pretender. My take is that everyone is a pretender compared to Alabama, but after that all the teams have flaws. Which teams have not had narrow or lucky escapes and/or outright losses? So, how realistic is it for us to get there. Unfortunately, when I try to analyze it without bias, it is not all that good. Still, it is fun to have the dream alive and we do have a chance. At first I was just using my own rough guesses on winning percentages, then I decided to use ESPN matchup predictor to come up with rough percentages. Not too different really.
STEP 1: First things first. I think everyone will agree to have any chance we must become a 1 loss champion of the Big 12. So, what are the odds of that happening? First the odds of winning each game:
My rough guesses; ESPN matchup predictor:
OklaSU-70% ; 52%
WVU-60%; 60%
TTU-65% ; 59%
ISU-70% ; 71%
KU-80% ; 85%
BIG 12 Championship 50%--assuming we play OU again.
Now we have to multiply all the probabilities together to find the probability of winning them all
.7*.6*.65*.7*.8*.5=.076 or 7.6% about 13 to 1 odds. This is why the horn mantra of one game at a time is important as you've got to increase the chance to win each game at the time and not worry about the daunting task ahead to win all the games.
Note, even if you made all of the chances of winning each game very high 90%, it would still end up only being 50/50 that we win out.
If I add 10% winning chance to each game, I get .8*.7*.75*.8*.9*.6=.181 18.1% or about 5 to 1 odds. The ESPN matchup predictor comes up with 5.5% chance (assuming 50% big 12 championship win). I think I've been generous there so lets say our odds are between 5 to 1 and 17 to 1 to become a 1 loss Big 12 champion.
STEP 2: Getting a spot in the CFP
As of now the way I see the CFP is Alabama, Clemson, ND, and 1 loss winner of the Big 10 (winner of the OSU-Michigan game)
SEC: In my mind, Alabama is (deservedly) a lock. One of the few teams that would have any chance to beat them is LSU, but if LSU should beat Alabama and win out it would probably put them both in the CFP as Alabama would not even participate in the SEC championship but still get an invite. It would be Alabama, plus any 1 loss SEC champion. If Alabama should win out to the SEC championship but lose in the SEC championship, once again Alabama would get an invite, plus a 1 loss SEC champion (Florida or Georgia?). The tidiest way to only allow 1 spot to the SEC is for Alabama to dominate, beat LSU and win the SEC championship.
Big 10: OSU loss to Purdue certainly helped the chances considerably. The OSU-Michigan game will eliminate one of the contenders out of the Big 10, but if there ends up being a 1 loss champion of the big 10, I fear media politics(ESPN likes SEC and BIG 10 over the BIG 12) combined with the fact that we have only recently emerged to college football relevance after a long drought will freeze us out. So, for safety we need whoever wins the OSU-Michigan game to lose another game. For OSU there really is an excellent chance for another loss. When you add up MSU, MD, Mich, and Big 10 title game, it is actually unlikely they escape. For Michigan a good start would be a loss to PSU on 11/3. Otherwise, realistically the only other chances would be OSU on 11/24 or the Big 10 title game. Unfortunately Michigan looks in pretty good shape to win out. The PSU-MICH game looms large for other CFP contenders like ourselves. The bottom line is that the odds are considerably against either Michigan or OSU to become a 1 loss champion, but for one or the other to do so, the odds are a lot higher. I'll guesstimate somewhere around 2 to 1 against having a 1 loss Big 10 champion. 33% chance for 1 loss big 10 champion. That means if we take care of our own business we have an excellent chance to make the playoffs, but we have another couple of opportunities as well.
Clemson remaining games FSU(90%), Louisville(99%), BC(87%), Duke(92%), South Carolina(92%), ACC championship(?VaTech? ?80%?)
win out percentage: 53%
ND remaining games Navy(98%), NW(75%), FSU(88%), SYR(78%), USC (66%) win out percentage 33%
Probability that any one of Big 10 has a 1 loss champion and Clemson and ND win out is .33*.53*.33 =5.7% or about 17 to 1.
We take care of our business and odds are greatly in our favor we make the playoffs.
STEP 1: First things first. I think everyone will agree to have any chance we must become a 1 loss champion of the Big 12. So, what are the odds of that happening? First the odds of winning each game:
My rough guesses; ESPN matchup predictor:
OklaSU-70% ; 52%
WVU-60%; 60%
TTU-65% ; 59%
ISU-70% ; 71%
KU-80% ; 85%
BIG 12 Championship 50%--assuming we play OU again.
Now we have to multiply all the probabilities together to find the probability of winning them all
.7*.6*.65*.7*.8*.5=.076 or 7.6% about 13 to 1 odds. This is why the horn mantra of one game at a time is important as you've got to increase the chance to win each game at the time and not worry about the daunting task ahead to win all the games.
Note, even if you made all of the chances of winning each game very high 90%, it would still end up only being 50/50 that we win out.
If I add 10% winning chance to each game, I get .8*.7*.75*.8*.9*.6=.181 18.1% or about 5 to 1 odds. The ESPN matchup predictor comes up with 5.5% chance (assuming 50% big 12 championship win). I think I've been generous there so lets say our odds are between 5 to 1 and 17 to 1 to become a 1 loss Big 12 champion.
STEP 2: Getting a spot in the CFP
As of now the way I see the CFP is Alabama, Clemson, ND, and 1 loss winner of the Big 10 (winner of the OSU-Michigan game)
SEC: In my mind, Alabama is (deservedly) a lock. One of the few teams that would have any chance to beat them is LSU, but if LSU should beat Alabama and win out it would probably put them both in the CFP as Alabama would not even participate in the SEC championship but still get an invite. It would be Alabama, plus any 1 loss SEC champion. If Alabama should win out to the SEC championship but lose in the SEC championship, once again Alabama would get an invite, plus a 1 loss SEC champion (Florida or Georgia?). The tidiest way to only allow 1 spot to the SEC is for Alabama to dominate, beat LSU and win the SEC championship.
Big 10: OSU loss to Purdue certainly helped the chances considerably. The OSU-Michigan game will eliminate one of the contenders out of the Big 10, but if there ends up being a 1 loss champion of the big 10, I fear media politics(ESPN likes SEC and BIG 10 over the BIG 12) combined with the fact that we have only recently emerged to college football relevance after a long drought will freeze us out. So, for safety we need whoever wins the OSU-Michigan game to lose another game. For OSU there really is an excellent chance for another loss. When you add up MSU, MD, Mich, and Big 10 title game, it is actually unlikely they escape. For Michigan a good start would be a loss to PSU on 11/3. Otherwise, realistically the only other chances would be OSU on 11/24 or the Big 10 title game. Unfortunately Michigan looks in pretty good shape to win out. The PSU-MICH game looms large for other CFP contenders like ourselves. The bottom line is that the odds are considerably against either Michigan or OSU to become a 1 loss champion, but for one or the other to do so, the odds are a lot higher. I'll guesstimate somewhere around 2 to 1 against having a 1 loss Big 10 champion. 33% chance for 1 loss big 10 champion. That means if we take care of our own business we have an excellent chance to make the playoffs, but we have another couple of opportunities as well.
Clemson remaining games FSU(90%), Louisville(99%), BC(87%), Duke(92%), South Carolina(92%), ACC championship(?VaTech? ?80%?)
win out percentage: 53%
ND remaining games Navy(98%), NW(75%), FSU(88%), SYR(78%), USC (66%) win out percentage 33%
Probability that any one of Big 10 has a 1 loss champion and Clemson and ND win out is .33*.53*.33 =5.7% or about 17 to 1.
We take care of our business and odds are greatly in our favor we make the playoffs.
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