So let's talk Super Tuesday

L

Longhorn_Fan68

1,000+ Posts
I'm interested how the race will shape out for both parties after this day (however, admittedly, I'm paying more attention to the left side).

What is the prevailing thought around here about who will come out ahead in both parties? I have heard talk that this poll and that have Hillary mopping up on Super Tuesday for the Democrats, but then again, it seemed some polls had her a lock for South Carolina as well.

I think it looks likely that McCain will have a strong showing for the Republicans, but I'm less sure of that now than I was a week ago.

Let the debate begin.
 
REPUBLICAN SIDE-

I think McCain distances himself from the pack. Especially if he does well in Florida.


DEMOCRATIC SIDE-

I think Hillary comes out the overall winner, but not by as much as was expected. I think that the ability of Independents to vote in the Democratic Primaries in California and New Jersey (I think) hurts her and helps Obama. (Republicans don't allow Independents to vote in their primary in California for sure and I don't know about the other states.) A strong showing from the Independent vote could sway Democrats in future Primaries to switch to Obama because it would signify that he could draw the Independent vote necessary to win a general election.

That's what I see.
 
I think Obama is toast in the democratic side of the party.

I think the Clintons have successfully marginalized him as the "black" canddated and I think he's more or less screwed.

I guess maybe I owe Hoosier an apology when i said I didn't think race was going to keep Obama from getting elected. I seriously underestimated the inherent racism in the democratic party and amongst their powerbrokers.

I think black people should get the hell out of the democratic party- they offer nothing consistently to deserve 95% of the vote from the community. Especially puzzling when blacks self identify themselves as conservative about 30%

I was thinking about it the other day- maybe Tiger Woods, in 16 or 20 years, can be our first black president. Hopefully he runs as a republican (but I have no idea his political persuasian).

So in short Hoosier- I was wrong (I think) and you were right (looks that way to me). I hope that team Clinton gets kicked in the balls in the general for this BS.
 
On a side note, I know absolutely nothing about Mitt Romney. What does this guy bring to the table? I don't even think I could pick him out of a lineup.
 
I think SC gave Obama more of a bump than many are willing to admit just yet.

Thus far Obama has over-performed in every contest, relative to where he was 6 weeks ago. The downplay of expectations by the Clintons in NH notwithstanding, BO made up over 10 points from the pre-Iowa polls and HC lost 3-6 points there. What's also lost on a lot of Hillary bettors is the that the unprecedented turnout has shattered previous pollster models on expected turnout and likely voters. Also lost on many a pundit is the firewall that Edwards has become by splitting the 'angry white male' vote with Hillary which has watered down rank-and-file opposition to Obama. And in any case, Obama is still pretty well-liked, even by many Hillary supporters. The same cannot be said of Hillary among Obama and Edwards supporters.

As for HC's 'institutional advantages' with the party machinery in the Feb 5 states, we're about to see if her old cronies still have the energy and giddy-up to out-work Obama's fresh young troops on GOTV. Time is of the essence over the next 8 days; we'll soon see who uses it wisely.

Personally I think HC is set up for some surprises, bot in the south and in Cali, maybe in Jersey as well. In a game of expectations, Obama has consistently beaten them while Hillary has had to continually spin hers down.
 
I just saw a clip of Obama in DC today accepting the Kennedy's endorsements. It was stirring to see people so fired up. I don't think we would have sen this even 10 days ago.

I don't know, but it sure feels like there's a rapidly spreading wave right now that the polls haven't quite nailed down.

In reply to:
Click to expand...
 
Wulaw,
No apology owed for having an opinion that runs counter to the history of the U.S. Hell, I was hoping you were right and I was just a cynic.

People, regardless of color, should get out of all political parties and vote for individual candidates that they think can do the best job for the society.

Apparently, Tiger Woods can't be our first black President. He could, however, be our first "balack-ish" President.

And to think, when the whole Obama thing started, there was concern that he wasn't "black enough". He's "black enough" now.

Having said all that, he's doing MUCH better than I thought he would.

In reply to:
Click to expand...
 
I am cautiously optimistic that Obama can ride a last minute surge of momentum and (yes) emotion to show well against long odds that Clinton can be beat. I think he is pulling well in groups that HC probably thought she had sewed up -- women and, surprisingly, the young. The most intriguing thing about this primary season, for me, has been the involvement of younger voters, right about the time I thought that young voters were too cynical to turn out in numbers.

I can't guess how the Republicans will turn out, even if, in my heart, I'd love to see McCain get the nod, but I will venture this prediction, which I think will come true. If Guiliani does not show well in Florida (and I mean better than 3rd place) then his campaign is toast.

This might all be wishful thinking or some side effect of my prescriptions, but my dream is Obama vs. McCain, and I think a lot of how you predict the primaries depends on what color glasses you pick up to wear to peer at the future. I will say this; I am pleasantly surprised that Obama is doing so well. He won't win Texas (I don't think any Democrat can, much less a black candidate), but I have hope that the time has come when people look literally beyond face value and judge the candidate. I'd like to think this is true also about gender; it would do my late mother proud to see a woman doing so well, but I don't want Hilliary to be the standard bearer in that regard.
 
Hoosier

Not exactly, but I don't think I have the time nor inclination to adequately explain what I meant by that.

Cliff notes version is this: There might well be as much racism (or I'll throw a bone and say more) in the Republican party but the GOP is more upfront about it (if that makes any sense) whereas the Dems I think are the worst kind (to my way of thinking) and are closet racists that say one thing and do another.

Me, I'd rather know (I think anyway) that someone was biggoted then have to guess. Not sure if that makes sense and in my mind it's a lot more elegant, but it'd take more time then I have right now to explain it. I hope that makes a certain amount of sense as to why I typed what I did.
 
The conventional wisdom out there suggests that Super Tuesday is coming too soon for Obama and just in time for Hillary.

The Republican race could actually be closer than the Dem race. If Romney wins Florida, and he has a great chance to do so, the R battle has a very good chance of lasting much longer than the D battle.

I think Obama will be in bad shape after Super Tuesday.

I think the race is already locked up.

Hillary vs. R winner in Florida
 
I think Clinton wraps it up on Super Tuesday.

As for the republicans, I think it gets messy if Romney wins Florida and it could get dragged out for a while. If McCain wins Florida, I don't see anything that can stop him.
 
If Hillary does indeed have the D nom locked, today's R Florida primary is probably represents the most important vote before the general election.
 
Hillary is no where close to having it wrapped up.

Neither candidate will come anywhere close to enough delegates after Super Tuesday because all of the Dem primaries are proportional as opposed to winner take all.

The polls showed Obama winning SC by at the most 15 points and one poll had it at 8 points. Winning by 27 points was out of the park. He followed the landslide win with endorsements from the Kennedys and now the governor of Kansas (one of the Super Tuesday states and the person chosen by the party to respond to the SOTU and who used language very similar to Obama.)

Obama beat Hillary by 9 in Iowa (97% white) and 27 in SC. Her wins were by 5 each in NH and Nevada where she had by far her best ground teams. Her campaign chairman in NH was the husband of the governor, a family very influential in NH politics and with access to the Democratic machine.

In NV, her campaign chair was Harry Reid’s son, who had full access to the Dem machine. She was working NV for a year. Obama did not have any pros in NV until the Iowa win.

I have not seen any polls yet that were taken after his SC win and the Kennedy endorsement. It is absurd to make any predictions until new polls come out and even then, it is difficult at best. They were off by as much as 11% in Iowa and 19% in SC underestimating Obama support and off the other direction in NH.

Momentum is very important in a close race and there is no doubt who has the momentum.
 
Things are a lot closer on the Dems side than most people thought a week ago, that's for sure.

McCain appears to be distancing himself for the Pubs.
 
You may be right but it is a dead heat right now.
March 4th has Ohio as well and that will be big too.
The democratic race will go all the way to the convention IMO
 
Still think Hillary wins decisively on super tuesday and it's all over except the shouting. Hope I'm wrong though- just my gut feeling.
 
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