Season Expectations Thread

T

TexanWolv

1,000+ Posts
Okay...So I know we are in the middle of football season....But I'm always excited for the college basketball season! And since I keep checking back every day for a Hamilton update and see nothing I figured I might as well generate some discussion.

This question is a two-parter with the first question being "What should we expect from the team this year?" and the second question being "What DO you think we will get from the team this year?"

For me both of these are very tough questions...Perhaps tougher than the year KD and crew came in. We have such a question mark at PG in that no one really knows what Balbay will give us and whether AJ can step in if needed without sacrificing overall scoring for the team. I would like to think that the ridiculous amount of bodies we have on the low block will be a huge plus but all of them have been role-players up to this point and they need to show serious improvement. I think we all feel James is going to have a fabulous year. I feel this season also depends on whether Connor steps it up and consistenly dominates like he did in parts of last year. Another question mark is whether Brown makes it into school and plays in the second semester.

So...That being said my early feelings are:

Question 1 - I think we should expect this team to finish at least 3rd in the league, make the semi-finals in the Big XII tournament and go to the second round in the NCAA tournament. Anywhere below that is failure for this program anymore in my opinion. We have a lot of talented bodies and a coach who consistently overachieves expectations.

Question 2 - I think the team will end up 3nd in the conference...Same as I expected. I think they will go out in the quarterfinals of the Big XII tournament...Not what I expected. Finally I think they will lose in the second round of the NCAA tournament....though I am almost split 50/50 with them going to the Sweet 16 and losing there.

I know that the answers to question 2 seem pessimistic...But I can't shake the images of how the team played last year when DJ was not on the court due to rotation...or especially when he was in foul trouble.

HOWEVER....I fully reserve the right to change my opinion at any time!!!
wink.gif
Frankly, I'm just excited and am looking forward to the upcoming year.
 
The Big 12 is going to have a major down year. I predict we will be favored to win the conference by media and coaches. Kansas lost a ton. Baylor is probably the next biggest threat but we haven't lost to them at all since before I started at UT 10 years ago.

I'm excited about this year's team. Someone always steps up and I can't wait to see who that will be. I think Pittman or Chapman will be it.
 
I thought for a second you said "since I started at UT ten years ago..."

This team should be the favorite to win the conference. If they get decent PG play, regardless of the source, they can get there.

Tournament always is a crapshoot, but if the front line improves as expected, they could get to the EE again.
 
Ditto to Statalyzer's comment. Hill wasn't healthy at the end of his freshman year, so that year wasn't really that good a barometer of what he can do. Now consider the growth curves of players like Klotz, Boddicker, and Atchley while at UT.

I really liked Hill as a freshman as someone who would be in defensive position to contest shots, and felt he might develop into a really tough defender in the paint if he got a) a little stronger so he would hold position better and not be forced too deep and b) just a bit quicker on reaction time in getting the blocking hand up. Damn shame about the foot injuries, and here's hoping he is able to go at full strength.

If Hill is ready to go, I don't see how UT would want to go with 3 guards all that much, as it would have 7 guys Gary Johnson sized or bigger, with only 5 guards, one of whom Barnes hasn't shown any inclination to give time in the past two years.

I keep hoping the day comes when UT has length and strength without sacrificing agility and scoring ability. With all the guys available to go, maybe this is the year for that.
 
Probably the favorites to win the Big 12. Expecting Sweet 16. With a little luck, we could make the Elite Eight. Anything beyond that, and we overachieved...which would be fine by me.
 
I don't have the same warm fuzzies about our team this year. I guess a lot depends on the PG play... which I know nothing about. We'll see I guess. I have a feeling someone like OSU or Baylor is going to surprise everyone this season. As for Texas, I will be pretty darn happy with another Sweet 16.
 
OU will be extremely tough this year. The Land Thieves might have the best team on paper.

I'm sure KU will reload. They certainly have the recruiting stars to step in and play well.

As for our 'Horns, we will once again see a completely different team. Last year's squad was dominated by backcourt play; this year's group will mostly be frontcourt.

That's the beauty of Barnes--his teams reinvent themselves from year to year and all he does is keep winning.
 
KU will be waaaayyyy down this year and for a few years to come. That class is extremely overrated, no stars that I can see. Texas should win the conference...OU and Baylor will fight it out for second. After that, well, the conference is utter ****. We should be one of the toughest and most athletic teams in the country. The only question mark now is, as everybody's already mentioned, the PG position. My feeling is that we just put the most talent on the court that we can and let Mason and Abrams just do what they want with it. AJ at PG, for some reason, scored even better when he needed to at times last year.

I'm also interested in watching how our offense opens up without DJ to do everything as the shot clock winds down this year. Too much standing around and watching, which can't and won't happen for this team.
 
KU may be down from an experience standpoint, but I think they'll still be right in the middle of it come conference time. I know nothing's ever automatic, but they've got 10 as close to automatic wins as one could ever expect in this league just by getting the north schedule. Barring at least 2 surprise teams, that division is going to be HORRIBLE, while UT,OU, BU, & A&M are down south knocking each other in their collective mouths.
 
Yeah, SCS, sad but true. One of the magazines, which is out of my reach but not too far, said five of the top six teams would be south teams. I just can't foresee that.
 
My expectation is a conference championship and a Sweet 16 berth. I think Texas is finally going to get a win in Lawrence. I think they'll end up with a top 4 seed --- possibly a 2 or 3.

I believe that eventually Dogus Balbay will be playing the preponderance of PG minutes, probably sooner rather than later. I don't think AJ Abrams is going to play many PG minutes at all, unless he changes his stripes, and I don't believe he's going to change his stripes. By that I mean it's not in his nature to get other players involved, and I don't think that mindset of his is going to change.

Mason can be good as the other PG, but last year he had the advantage of generally getting an opponents' third best perimeter defender, after DJ Augustin saw a team's best on the ball defender, and AJ Abrams was assigned a team's best off the ball defender. While he was decent at attacking the basket, he wasn't as good as Balbay will be, and the ability to break down the defense off of ball screens is absolutely vital to run any kind of semblance of an offense under Barnes, even if Balbay has all kinds of trouble knocking down outside shots.

I don't know how the guard rotation will work out. In my ideal world, AJ would become the best 6th man in the country, averaging over 25 minutes per game in that role, but I've pretty much given up on that happening at this point.

Atchley will obviously be a starter, and I think Johnson and James will be the two others.

Atchley, James, and Abrams will help spread the floor. Johnson, James, and Atchley will all be good as ball screeners for pick and roll opportunities.

On defense, all three of Johnson, James, and Atchley are terrific at hedging and recovering from ball screens. Johnson and James in particular are fearsome at it, many times being able to just switch rather than hedge, or even aggressively double.

Both Balbay and Mason are terrific on the ball perimeter defenders. With those two on the court and any number of combinations at the other three positions, the half court defense is going to be very aggressive and cause all kinds of problems.

With the depth in the frontcourt, I look for a return to a very physical style, particularly on the defensive end. There should be very little worries about foul trouble, unless none of Pittman/Hill/Wangmene/Chapman work out, which I consider as a zero percent possibility. One of the advantages of this is referees will often start swallowing their whistles regarding physical play in the post at some point just to allow the game to continue. Either that, or they'll call a tight game, which could very well work to UT's advantage too if they get their opponents' in foul trouble.

Texas will have a deep frontcourt, extensive experience, a new PG --- but one who has been tested at something considerably above the high school basketball level. They should be outstanding defensively, and while scoring won't come as easily as it has the last two years with players who were virtually undefendable at the college level in Durant and Augustin, it can be made up for to some degree with better post play, both in terms of scoring in the paint and because of better rebounding.

The weakness for this team in my opinion is the lack of a superstar playmaker, which is why it's my opinion they're a year away from a national title run, when hopefully Bradley, Hamilton, and Williams add their considerable talents to a rock solid core.

This year to me is about winning a conference title, gaining valuable experience in the tournament, and watching the continued growth of some of the key players who will be returning. It's also an opportunity to see Atchley and Abrams --- who in their own ways have been a second wave of the Mouton/Ivey/Thomas/Boddicker group in terms of what they've done for the program, solidifying UT's place among the pantheon of top national programs after that first group put us there. Atchley in particular has been an absolute treat for me to follow, and Abrams has had more than his share of special moments, while being a critical component of UT's success over his 4 years.

Thanks for starting the thread.
 
I also think a lot falls on the shoulders of D James. He was a beast early last season. He pretty much won the UCLA game for us. Then his production trailed off...

If D James can consistently produce like he did early last season, we could go far. He has the potential to be the best player in the Big 12 if he perfects his running jump shot.
 
To me, the one of the biggest areas of concern is going to be
free throw shooting. The two players who are being discussed on this thread as the primary ball handlers and Balbay and Mason.

Balbay is not a good ft shooter. Mason was almost serviceable last year, but not good enough for a guy who might have the ball in hand a lot while closing out games. James is career 58%. I'm more concerned about him increasing that number than I am about his perfecting a running jump shot. Atchley improved to 67% last year, and I think we can reasonably hope that a guy with his stroke from 3 can get that up over 75%.

Abrams is the only proven ft shooter, and he doesn't get to the line much, and won't in the coming year unless he changes his game. I've heard Ward is a good free throw shooter, but we'll have to see. I hope he turns out to be money from the stripe and sees the floor toward the end of games to protect leads,. I can also hope maybe Harrison Smith will show enough this year to be help on the floor late in games as a guy to handle the ball some and shoot free throws-- just so long as we don't wind up with a team that was as poor at inbounding the ball as the Horns were 3 years ago.

I really hope the whole team shot about a million free throws over the summer while people were screaming in their ears and throwing **** at them.
 
Figured I'd bring this thread back so people could look at what they said.

As for what I "expected of the team" I missed on the Big XII standing but I got the Big XII semifinals and the NCAA 2nd round correct.

GoHornsGo really nailed Kansas.
wink.gif


So much for that free throw shooting, Bierce.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Weekly Prediction Contest

* Predict HORNS-AGGIES *
Sat, Nov 30 • 6:30 PM on ABC

Recent Threads

Prediction Results Threads

2024 Schedules

Back
Top