Russia kicked out of G8

now we're getting closer to meaningful actions. still need to do more. they need to be hit with tougher sanctions.

the german leader has made some strides with Putin (forgetting her name, Merkel?)
 
I like this move because Putin has been trying to convince the world that russia is a modern, powerful country. In the end, its probably meaningless, but in counters the image that putin is attempting to project.
 
We'll see if this has any teeth. They weren't kicked out they were just suspended and I'm thinking the were suspended in a similar fashion that OU players are suspended.
 
I am getting a thrill of sorts watching this slow train wreck because it is so reminiscent of how europe went to war in the summer of 1914.

NObody can afford to back down and they are trying to calibrate responses so things don't get out of hand but every ratchet up leads to another and at some point somebody has to dodge the oncoming car and do chicken, which is as hard to do as it is for me to avoid mixing metaphors.

THis is as scary as anything since 1962 and everybody seems more concerned with an airplane mystery or a frigging basketball tournament.
 
in the summer of 1914 nobody wanted a war and nobody expected one but people had certain interests and images to protect. The Russians needed to protect their south Slav buddies the Serbs and the Austrians had to protect their image as a power and keep the Serbs from giving ideas to other parts of the Austria-Hungary empire, which was full of discontented ethnic groups who wanted to be part of other countries or have their own.

Things kept getting ratcheted up. Nobody took other threats as seriously as they should or thought more than a few moves ahead,

Most importantly, none of the soon to be warring powers seemed capable of envisioning the crisis from the viewpoint of the others.

Lots of unintended consequences flowed from these situations and next thing you know millions are dead.

There is one huge difference. Back then, nobody had nuclear weapons.

But I hope you are right
 
Austria-Hungary threatened and then invaded Serbia because of the assignation of the Austrian crown prince in Sarajevo. Russia mobilized its troops in order to protect Serbia. This triggered various treaty obligations between Russia, France, and Great Britain. This in turn triggered treaty obligations between Austria-Hungary and Germany.

Germany mobilized its troops faster and got an edge on everyone especially in France on the Western front It was thought that fast mobilization would win a war more quickly and instead it led to a war. Between the assignation and WW I was a matter of a month.

This situation is nothing like WW I.

It might be if Russia was threatening a NATO member or US troops were pouring into Ukraine (or even Poland or Romania). But they are not. Neither the US nor the EU have indicated that they will do a thing to defend any of Ukraine.

So this analogy fails.

As for nuclear weapons, there have been no major conflicts between the US and USSR/Russia because of nuclear weapons. MAD has actually worked.

I find what Russia is doing to be disgusting and awful, but this is hardly WW I or III.
 
no analogy is ever exact; some of the circumstances here are reminiscent of the way Europe stumbled blindly into war in August 1914. What happens if the Russians send troops into the areas like eastern Ukraine, et al?

We don't mobilize and invade but start ratcheting up the economic sanctions. What does Russia do when the pinch starts biting?

In the US attacks on the Serbs during the Clinton administration, the commander of the NATO forces at one airbase, a Brit, was ordered to open fire on Russian troops. He disobeyed that order and avoided a shooting war. Good for him.

What if we have an incident like that now? Remember Concord and Lexington? Or Gonzales?
Little sparks can start big fires.

I don't mean to be chicken little but I have lived through one inicdent in which the US and Russia almost went to war (and our Joint Chiefs and the Vice President were gung ho for it) over a situation that eventually got defused. In retrospect it was a good thing we had JFK in the White House at the time and not the Silver Star winner who succeeded him a year later,.

So excuse me if I am a little more concerned about this than is perhaps necessary. I will try to distract myself with the latest non news about a missing airplane and its dead passengers and "March Madness,"
 
fair enough

there are some similarities, but there seem like far more differences

I guess to me the biggest difference is that we have no way of effectively countering quickly anything Russia might do in Ukraine (and we won't) or the eastern NATO states (which all used to be Warsaw Pact or USSR) so the rapid mobilization and rush-to-war that was a primary cause of WW I just is not there by virtue of modern armies and equipment.

WW I was not a series of incidents so much as a cascade from the second the Russians mobilized in response to Austria-Hungary attacking Serbia. I suppose maybe it is a series of incidents with the diplomacy and relations between the great powers at the time, but I am thinking more about the immediate cause of the war.

The countries all believed that whoever mobilized and attacked first would win. This was the insanity of WW I.

The assignation of Archduke Ferdinand was on June 29, 1914. Russia began mobilization on July 30, 1914 (which triggered France and Britain's obligations). Germany invaded Belgium on August 4, 1914. There was no stopping things once this happened because all the countries believed that the war would be short and the first to fully mobilize would "win".

I hope we learned this lesson and the nature of modern warfare gives us lots of time to negotiate unless it is nuclear armageddon.

I also do not think Russia has any desire at all to tangle with NATO. They know our eventual capabilities both militarily and economically although this would take months or even years to fully materialize.

I just do not see this leading to war unless Russia tangles directly with NATO.
 
With all of the military incursions that the US has engaged in over the last 25 years, seriously, people are disgusted at Russia taking a strategic step in securing its border, where they already have military installations, and the people there have basically said they want to be a part of Russia?

Has Russia carpet bombed the Ukraine and taken over the entire country? Have they gone in and overthrown the guy that overthrew the original government? Simmer down people. Putin has taken a preemptive stance by taking over Crimea. We all know what preemptive actions are, right?
 
NATO has no stomach for fighting Russia; In the US there are a lot of people (see Krauthammer's most recent offering) and media sources wailing at the moon and calling Obama a gutless coward. Dono what he can do short of diplomatic snubs and ratcheting up economic sanctions. I guess he could appoint a lesbian as our ambassador to Russia. THat would show them, like sending Billie Jean King to head our Olympic delegation,. Maybe Ellen would do it for us.

I have no confidence in the good sense of our government and am thankful McCain/Palin are not in charge right now.
 
I find the attempts to analogize what Putin did in Ukraine with anything the US has done to be disingenuous at best.

I suppose your analogy is to Iraq?

You mean the Iraq that we have left right?

I had no love of what we did there particularly the lives and money we wasted, but it really fails the analogy test since we did not annex it.
 
huisache,

I agree with your series of events that led to the first world war. However, I think there are many times in history where a series of events could lead to war. In WWI everything fell into place but most of the time the tension is alleviated and barely becomes a footnote in world history. This is just one of those times of tension. Personally, I think it will lead nowhere and die like most other minor conflicts. If it does escalate, it will be caused by a second and third event such as a war between the Ukraine and Russia and the seizure and closing of most gas pipelines to Europe. Even then, much more would have to fall into place for a third world war. Most of the world is weary of war. Very few are hungry for it.
 
It is not a direct analogy. How man countries does the US occupy with military bases? How many corrupt governments do we tacitly give billions to every year? How many countries have we invaded and bombed the crap out of? Now compare that to what Putin has done.

There was a coup in Ukraine, and Putin did what he needed to to protect national interest. He solidified Russian presence in Crimea, where Russia already had a strong presence and ensured that Crimea would not become a part of a Western backed government. And yeah, Crimea wants to become a part of Russia. Oh the horror.
 
When is the last time the US annexed a portion of another country?

You are on another planet comparing the two.

Did we annex Germany, Japan, or Korea? How long should the list go on?

And let's pretend the US did this in the last 150 years or so. Do two wrongs suddenly make a right?

As for the referendum, that was fair. Makes Russian elections look honest.
 
Yeah, the US doesnt annex countries. We just overthrow their governments, install puppets until we dont need them, and then find an excuse to carpet bomb them.

Thats totally much better I know.
 
Speaking of G8... G7... worked this up as part of some research I'm doing in my work. Keep in mind GDP and gov't debt numbers vary by source, so this is just one.. countryeconomy.com/national-debt

Gov't Debt as % of GDP -- Country -- G7/Nato as applicable

237% -- Japan -- G7
127% -- Italy -- G7-Nato
105% -- USA -- G7-Nato
94% --- Spain -- Nato
90% --- France -- G7-Nato
89% --- Canada -- G7-Nato
89% --- UK -- G7-Nato
78% --- Germany -- G7-Nato.

Here's Russia and China

22% -- China, percent of GDP as gov't debt
13% -- Russia, percent of GDP as gov't debt

China is the major exporter a step ahead of US, Germany, Japan

Russia has the richest supply of natural resources.
Russia is #1, valued at $75 trillion
US is #2, valued at $45 trillion

The G7 have gov't debt totaling 44.399 Trillion.
Russia has gov't debt totaling 284 billion.
 
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