RPI - as of 4/6/09 - #17

jayakris

jayakris

2,500+ Posts
Here is how the RPI looks as of this morning (4/6/09). Our wins in green. Our losses in red, and teams coming up, in bold. 1 20 7 Cal State Fullerton 2 19 9 Texas Christian 3 24 7 North Carolina 4 23 8 Miami, Florida 5 19 6 Georgia Tech6 21 7 Rice
7 19 8 UC Irvine
8 22 6 Arkansas
9 19 10 Hawaii
10 23 8 Louisiana State
11 26 5 Virginia
12 21 10 Oklahoma State
13 18 10 Brigham Young
14 20 8 Baylor
15 23 5 Arizona State
16 24 7 Coastal Carolina
17 20 8 Texas
18 20 10 Clemson
19 21 7 Cal Poly
20 16 9 Minnesota

22 25 7 Oklahoma
29 20 11 Texas A&M
40 24 8 Kansas State
54 15 16 Missouri
56 19 10 Texas State
57 16 14 Nebraska
58 18 12 Kansas
75 17 12 Penn State
78 12 8 Oral Roberts
84 19 8 Dallas Baptist
92 16 14 Texas-Arlington
106 14 19 Texas Tech
109 11 12 Stanford
213 12 15 Illinois-Chicago
256 11 21 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
280 8 15 Alabama A&M
291 14 14 Texas Southern

R.J.
 
I believe we were in the low 20's last week, correct?

If so, that's a nice little jump. A "W" vs TCU will help. Big mid-week game ...
 
I believe we were #27 or something last week.

TCU win will be good for sure. It's a big game. Basically we need to take care of Nebraska and then some tough ones come up. We do have fairly good control of our destiny.

R.J.
 
Looking at the RPI Needs Report for today, there are 25 teams that could theoretically end up in the top 8. Of those, Texas has the 18th most difficult shot, in terms of needed win percentage for the remainder of the season at .957 (22-1). The report puts Texas' needs for getting a top 16 RPI at 17-6.

The groupings are as follows
5 schools that need between .680 and .741. (7 or 8 losses permissible)
Georgia kind of alone at .840 (4 losses permissible)
5 schools between .870 and .885 (3 losses permissible)
6 schools between .909 and .923 (2 losses permissible)
5 schools between .957 and .966 (1 loss permissible) -- TEXAS GROUP
3 schools that must be perfect (0 losses permissible)

So yes, Texas is in control of its own destiny, but must be near perfect from here on out. Really there are only 11 schools that can theoretically get there from here on out without achieving near-perfection (and only 5 that can afford to drop more than 4 games).

Of course, this is a dynamic ranking... games aren't played in a vacuum, and even if a team doesn't get to top 8/16 RPI, they could still get a national seed/regional host slot.

[pre]
Top 8 RPI Needs
School WPct Needed Max Losses
Arkansas 0.680 8
Miami, Florida 0.696 7
North Carolina 0.708 7
Cal State Fullerton 0.724 8
Georgia Tech 0.741 7
Georgia 0.840 4
Virginia 0.870 3
Texas A&M 0.875 3
Louisiana State 0.880 3
Oklahoma State 0.880 3
Clemson 0.885 3
Baylor 0.909 2
Oklahoma 0.917 2
Rice 0.917 2
Mississippi 0.920 2
Auburn 0.923 2
Florida 0.923 2
Texas 0.957 1
South Carolina 0.962 1
Texas Christian 0.962 1
Arizona State 0.964 1
UC Irvine 0.966 1
Hawaii 1.000 0
Kentucky 1.000 0
San Diego 1.000 0
[/pre]
 
texduncan, thanks for posting that, but those numbers sound like pure crap.
Whoever wins the Big XII will likely get a Top 8. The Big XII is one of the top 2-3 conferences in 2009 ... some claim it's the best.

We do our work and win the Big XII (which is faaar from a given), I'd think there would be no way we don't get a Nat'l Seed. Saying we can't afford to lose more than 1 game is laughable at this point.

Records of Nat'l Seeds in 2008:
Miami 47-8
UNC 46-12
ASU 45-11
FSU 48-10
Fullerton 37-19
Rice 42-13
LSU 43-16-1
UGA 35-21-1
** A&M just missed with a 43-16 record, but pissed down their leg down the stretch by getting swept by Texas and having a poor showing in the Big XII Tourney

2007 Texas got a Nat'l Seed at 44-16
2006 Texas and Nebraska both get Nat'l Seeds
2005 Baylor and Nebraska get Nat'l Seeds
2004 Texas gets Nat'l Seed
2003 No Big XII team
2002 Texas gets Nat'l Seed
2001 Nebraska gets Nat'l Seed
2000 No Big XII team
1999 Baylor and A&M get Nat'l Seeds
 
Despite some variation, end of season RPIs remain the best predictor of national seeds. When the committee goes off script, there's usually a pretty identifiable reason:

RPIs of Nat'l Seeds in 2008:
Miami 1
UNC 2
ASU 4
FSU 3
Fullerton 11(No idea what the committee was doing here, except that they probably wanted a California top national seed and were therefore willing to screw Coastal Carolina, and not reward GaTech or Nebraska who went 1-2 in their conf tourneys and failed to win the season championships)
Rice 5
LSU 9 (Won SEC Tourney)
UGA 17 (Regular season SEC champs)
 
end of season RPI is probably a pretty decent measure of a team's relative strength. middle of the season, probably a pretty lousy measure.
 
Exactly. We could probably still lose 3-5 more games and potentially end up in the top 8-10 in the RPI.

We still have games left vs TCU, Rice, OU, Baylor, A&M.
 
Lost weekend in Lawrence is going to really be an albatross around this team's RPI neck come seeding time in the tourny.
brickwall.gif
 
Seen 2 projections from after the OSU series ... both have as a #2 in Fort Worth.

Both projections were awarding OU/Baylor a Regional based on their place in the current standings ... neither had a Big XII club with a Top 8 seed.

Let's win tonight.
 
I noticed Nebraska with an RPI of #80. Does that help us or hurt us? THey are 16-15 on the year, but given the ball they've played lately, I would think they started out decently enough.
 
Won't hurt us if we beat them, but won''t help us much. We better sweep them, because any loss will hurt us. The way they have screwed up lately, I am sure they are really hungry for some wins and are due for some good breaks. This will be a tough road swing. Hope our bats will come through.

R.J.
 
There are 2 mindsets the Huskers could have this weekend, following a couple of VERY bad losses (15-1, 9-3, 15-0):

#1- Mad as hell
#2 - Toss in the towel
 
Updated RPIs (as of 4/10/09) 1 20-8 Cal State Fullerton 2 24-6 Arkansas 3 26-7 North Carolina 4 23-7 Rice 5 20-7 Georgia Tech 6 24-8 Miami, Florida 7 20-10 Texas Christian
8 20-11 Hawaii
9 20-9 UC Irvine
10 26-7 Coastal Carolina
11 24-8 Louisiana State
12 27-6 Virginia
13 21-8 Texas
14 23-7 Arizona State
15 23-7 Cal Poly
16 21-11 Clemson
17 21-9 Baylor
18 21-11 Oklahoma State
19 26-6 Georgia
20 22-10 Auburn

22 26-7 Oklahoma
36 20-12 Texas A&M
39 24-8 Kansas State
53 16-17 Missouri
56 20-12 Kansas
58 21-10 Texas State
63 21-8 Dallas Baptist
67 16-15 Nebraska
77 18-12 Penn State
79 13-9 Oral Roberts
100 16-15 Texas-Arlington
103 15-20 Texas Tech
107 12-12 Stanford
206 12-15 Illinois-Chicago
249 11-21 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
277 9-15 Alabama A&M
295 14 15 Texas Southern

R.J.
 
After the friday sweep, we have moved up to #12 in RPI and a surprising #7 in ISR, as per Boyd. The RPI Needs Report now shows 18-2 for top-8 finish from here on though - but that will keep varying a bit through the season. We have positioned ourselves rather well now, considering that 16 of next 19 games are at home after today.

R.J.
 
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