Romney will win Ohio

I35

I35

5,000+ Posts
This is very interesting but I got a way to put this all in perspective. First let me say Obama will not be getting the Ohio people that voted for McCain in 2008. Let's face it McCain was not a good candidate and they still voted for him. Now they have a much better candidate They already have their minds made up and with Obama's horrible record they are even more sure of themselves now. There are new voters that are around 18 to 21 that are eligible to vote now that didn't last time, but there just isn't near the excitement as 2008. Obama will get more than not in that group. It's been calculated that for every 100 voters that voted for Obama in 2008, he has to keep 95 of them for this election. So we know he's not gaining that many new voters and he's not getting the ones that didn't vote for him the last election. Can he keep 95 of every 100 voters that voted for him? I say no way.
 
As a former GOP worker here in Texas, and in Iowa in 2000, I can tell you that the Obama campaign's Midwest ground game is teh best of all-time. He isn't going to get 95 out of 100 who voted for him last time, he's going to create new voters who have never voted before.

Don't underestimate the incumbent benefit of being able to track what people have moved into Ohio either. The GOP is focused in Ohio now and has plenty of money, but Obama will get a higher share of his supporters to the polls.

Its all up to whether or not Romney's message and momentum overtake Obama's experience. If the election was today, I'd say Obama would get around 51.5%. Romney needs to set up shop and go all in, and give forceful, exciting speeches.
 
314, I so disagree. Right now the polls show 47 to 47. But history tells us that the Reps almost always out performs the polls once we see the results of the election. The Dems almost always under performs when compared to the actual election. Sometimes it's not a big difference and sometimes it's a huge difference. Either way if the polls show a tie, you can bet your *** that Romney is actually leading. Obama is a great campaigner but Romney is proving to be worthy himself. Being the incumbent can either help or hurt you depending on the job performance. In this case Obama is not running on his record which means his experience doesn't mean squat. Obama will get more votes when he was known as a community organizer than he will get as an experienced President. BHO is only experienced at being a horrible Presdient. Out of the 8 swing states Romney will win 7 of them. And as a bonus, I'm predicting a shocker blue state that nobody knew was in play for Romney.
 
Rasmussen is the one showing the tie, and it's always skewed right because they try to overcompensate for the fact that most people who answer the polls are left-leaning. They also have the furthest right advantage of all the polling agencies for Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin. Just because they say it's a tie there doesn't mean Obama is losing there.

If you're limiting your definition of "swing states" to not include NV, PA, MI, WI, and IA, then sure Romney's going to win 7 of 8. And he can easily win the election with Florida and Ohio alone. But I don't think OH is as solid red as Rasmussen is trending.
 
If you take all the polls in Ohio, its not tied. Even Romney's people have mentioned being behind.
 
And this "history always tells us the GOP does better than the polls" stuff is not backed up by fact. In 2008, Obama did about 1% less than what the aggregate of the top 20 polls showed. And in 2000, Gore outperformed the polls.
 
Superb analysis
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314, I agree about Obama in 2008. That was the exception though. That was not your typical election for President.

I promise you both campaigns do their own internal polling and they have a better guage than the polls. The telling story is how they are campaigning now. Romney is campaigning like a candidate does that has the lead and Obama is campaigning like a candidate that is behind.
 
and obama is campaigning like he just bought a brand spanking new house in Hawaii and his MIL can't wait to get there. you never want top piss the MIL off.
 
314, when you say he will create new voters that have never voted before, I assume you are talking about illegal aliens. And yes, I'm sure he and his people will do just that. Whether they will be as efficient as the LBJ people and have them vote in alphabetical order remains to be seen.
 
Ohio is too tight for either side to predict, and it wouldn't surprise me if we don't know who will win it until after election day. However, Romney better win Ohio if he wants to win the election.
 
There will be so much hell raising about disqualifying qualified voters, actual voter fraud and other sundry subjects fit for litigation that the winner will not be known immediately and my guess is that the Supremes will get to decide this one too. So it will be 5-4 for Romney on a party line vote, just like last time they decided.
 
I do think Romney wins Ohio but we will see that he would have won without Ohio. With too many swing states now in play and some strong to some slight lean for Romney, it's now to the point that it's Obama that has to absolutely have Ohio and some of those swing states. I'm predicting Penn, Wis, Nev, Colorado, Florida, NC, Virginia, NH, and Ohio go Romney. I don't believe he will get Minn, but it will be closer than most realized. Also there is a state that normally goes Dem that will shock us. I believe what I do without the Benghazi news. But that new News Alert today will really start those big crack in the damn to collapse for Obama. Let's just say his golf game will improve even more than it did the last four years.
 
Obama and Tiger will get to play Navy Seals games and play golf all they want. Maybe Obama will do HGH like Tiger and bulk us so next time he has to go kill Bin Laden he will be in better shape.
 
It's interesting that Romney might turn out to be Al Gore. He is now ahead in nearly all polls but it is very possible that Mitt wins the popular vote and loses the election.
 
Roger35, I am neither angry nor a "good ole boy"' but you are an imbecile. If you were more of a rascist I would absolutely believe you are Satchel - your posts are pretty much equal drivel. Pathetic, and yet you seem to believe that you have brains.
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more funny **** from our resident rightwing know-it-alls. not only this thread, but all over the WM.

keep steering that clown car to the far right, kids. much appreciated.

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