slappinleather
100+ Posts
How good is Kent state??
Texas State will be tough!!!
Regional Teams
- Thread starter slappinleather
- Start date
ISRs per boydsworld.com:
Texas: #12
Texas State: #33
Kent State: #47
Princeton:#183
By the numbers we got off a bit light compared to our seed.
...until you look at what we could face in the next round:
Arizona State: #6
If the #1s both win, we will host a Super as the underdog.
Texas: #12
Texas State: #33
Kent State: #47
Princeton:#183
By the numbers we got off a bit light compared to our seed.
...until you look at what we could face in the next round:
Arizona State: #6
If the #1s both win, we will host a Super as the underdog.
T
TXThorn
Guest
If both the 1's win and we get Arizona St. in the super, I'm not about to claim we would be the underdog as mentioned above. Yes their hitting is superior, but their team pitching is a full point below ours, with their best starter having an above 2 ERA. Not to mention our defense is ranked 4th to their 63rd. And to me another very important fact is they are only 11-8 on the road this year. Would we have our hands full? Sure. Would we be underdogs? With better pitching, defense, and homefield advantage...surely not underdogs.
geezerhorn
1,000+ Posts
Unfortunately, we were not underdogs to TCU.
Hoping our bats show up if we make it thru to a game with Arizona.
Hoping our bats show up if we make it thru to a game with Arizona.
Alex_de_Large
1,000+ Posts
How in the world did St. John's at #64 and SoS of 135 get in over LSU at #26 and SoS of 47 or Auburn at #56 and Sos of 16? Seton Hall must have won the Big East tournament (#89 and Sos of 127). UConn at #42 and Sos of 150 got in too?
Not to start a debate, but ISR is not facts, but Boyd Nation's opinion. One may give his opinion more weight, but it is still opinion. From Boyd'sWorld website:
______________________________________
What are the ISR's?
The ISR's are the results of an algorithm designed to measure the quality of a team's season to date by combining their winning percentage with the difficulty of their schedule. The algorithm computes all teams simultaneously and attempts to take advantage of inter-regional games more accurately than other rating systems.
How are the ISR's computed?
The basic idea is an iterative one. Begin with all teams set to an even rating -- 100 in this case. Then, for each game played, give each team the value of their opponent's rating plus or minus a factor for winning or losing the game -- 25 in this case. Total all of a team's results, divide by the number of games played, and that's the end of a cycle. Then use those numbers as the start of the next cycle until you get the same results for each team for two consecutive cycles.
Why are the ISR's needed?
While it's still a great game, college baseball suffers from the lack of an accurate rating system for measuring team quality. The traditional polls suffer from voters running on auto-pilot, and the RPI's used by the selection committee have some serious problems with the method used to determine strength of schedule. Because of the small amount of inter-regional play in the sport, some regions tend to be under-represented in the NCAA tournament, and mid-rank large conference teams tend to be unfairly excluded. Although trying to get the selection committee to acknowledge this may be a hopeless case, the ISR's are an attempt to find a better rating system.
Why don't you include my favorite factor -- such as home field advantage, margin of victory, or past performance?
Because I can't measure whether it increases accuracy, and I intentionally don't trust "common sense", because so much of it is wrong when it comes to baseball.
Any rating system for sports is inherently going to have a bit of impreciseness built into it, because sports are inherently random; this is why we bother to watch the games rather than watching a pre-determined art form like film or ballet. This is especially true for college baseball, in part because of the relatively short season and in part because baseball is the most random of major sports. In professional sports, the best football teams generally win 90% of their games, the best basketball teams routinely win 80% of their games, and the best baseball teams struggle to win 66%.
Because of this, it's impossible to determine just how accurate any given ratings system is. It's possible to see how accurate the results "look", and the ISR's do very well in that regard by mid-season. It's possible to see how accurately the regular-season rankings predict the post-season results, but only an extremist who's never actually thought about it would claim that the best team always wins a championship, especially with a format designed more for television than fairness such as the College World Series.
With that in mind, I've chosen to keep the ISR's as simple as possible. I have experimented with many factors, including the ones above, and have failed to find any indication that they provide any better ratings than simply considering the current-season ratings in a straight-forward manner.
___________________________________________
Again, not trying to be argumentative, just adding to the discussion.
______________________________________
What are the ISR's?
The ISR's are the results of an algorithm designed to measure the quality of a team's season to date by combining their winning percentage with the difficulty of their schedule. The algorithm computes all teams simultaneously and attempts to take advantage of inter-regional games more accurately than other rating systems.
How are the ISR's computed?
The basic idea is an iterative one. Begin with all teams set to an even rating -- 100 in this case. Then, for each game played, give each team the value of their opponent's rating plus or minus a factor for winning or losing the game -- 25 in this case. Total all of a team's results, divide by the number of games played, and that's the end of a cycle. Then use those numbers as the start of the next cycle until you get the same results for each team for two consecutive cycles.
Why are the ISR's needed?
While it's still a great game, college baseball suffers from the lack of an accurate rating system for measuring team quality. The traditional polls suffer from voters running on auto-pilot, and the RPI's used by the selection committee have some serious problems with the method used to determine strength of schedule. Because of the small amount of inter-regional play in the sport, some regions tend to be under-represented in the NCAA tournament, and mid-rank large conference teams tend to be unfairly excluded. Although trying to get the selection committee to acknowledge this may be a hopeless case, the ISR's are an attempt to find a better rating system.
Why don't you include my favorite factor -- such as home field advantage, margin of victory, or past performance?
Because I can't measure whether it increases accuracy, and I intentionally don't trust "common sense", because so much of it is wrong when it comes to baseball.
Any rating system for sports is inherently going to have a bit of impreciseness built into it, because sports are inherently random; this is why we bother to watch the games rather than watching a pre-determined art form like film or ballet. This is especially true for college baseball, in part because of the relatively short season and in part because baseball is the most random of major sports. In professional sports, the best football teams generally win 90% of their games, the best basketball teams routinely win 80% of their games, and the best baseball teams struggle to win 66%.
Because of this, it's impossible to determine just how accurate any given ratings system is. It's possible to see how accurate the results "look", and the ISR's do very well in that regard by mid-season. It's possible to see how accurately the regular-season rankings predict the post-season results, but only an extremist who's never actually thought about it would claim that the best team always wins a championship, especially with a format designed more for television than fairness such as the College World Series.
With that in mind, I've chosen to keep the ISR's as simple as possible. I have experimented with many factors, including the ones above, and have failed to find any indication that they provide any better ratings than simply considering the current-season ratings in a straight-forward manner.
___________________________________________
Again, not trying to be argumentative, just adding to the discussion.
Horn-N-LA
1,000+ Posts
If we're able to make it to the Supers and meet ASU, I'm confident we'll be ok. Our pitching will neutralize their bats, but the key thing, is getting on and putting pressure on their D. Obviously if we come out pounding their pitching, we'll kick their ***. But I don't think that'll probably happen based on our hitting this year. Going to be lots of bunts and hit and runs and get their D making mistakes.
Thank you for your post, Referee13; nice to hear from someone who actually knows what the ISR is!
Still, I have to quibble with your comments. The current ISR ratings are not Boyd Nation's opinion, they are the facts derived from a formula that, based on an analysis of historical data, has statistically valid predictive value. Boyd's ISR is a constant formula over the years. I'll take that as a high quality indicator of favorite/underdog status over anything else that I can think of at the moment.
Furthermore, I must note that the cited fact reads:
Still, I have to quibble with your comments. The current ISR ratings are not Boyd Nation's opinion, they are the facts derived from a formula that, based on an analysis of historical data, has statistically valid predictive value. Boyd's ISR is a constant formula over the years. I'll take that as a high quality indicator of favorite/underdog status over anything else that I can think of at the moment.
Furthermore, I must note that the cited fact reads:
hornpharmd
5,000+ Posts
Let's take it one game at a time. We need a win in game 1 against Princeton on Friday night. We don't want to have our backs against the walls like in previous years and we want to have our ace ready to go in game 1 in the supers.
Win on Friday night guys!!
Win on Friday night guys!!
notanative
1,000+ Posts
T
TXThorn
Guest
ISR definitely is not a non-debatable fact-based formula that determines a favorite or dog. It's a grouping of facts that produce an outcome that ranks teams. There are other important facts that the formula leaves out. I guarantee if Vegas odds were posted for the Super, and they just may be at some places...Texas would be the favorite. And yes, those odds are determined by who they think will bet on who, and not necessarily facts, but it does produce a favorite and dog...and Texas would/will be favored at home. Yes, I know we have to win tomorrow, but we're discussing a possible Super. I'm merely saying IMO our pitching/defensive edge and homefield advantage will favor us over their superior offense in a 3 game format. And also that Vegas odds will/would favor us as well. And I also concede that they have a better ISR and if it was the only criteria used for determining a legitimate favorite, then they would be the fav. But that is not solely how these things are determined. Many high ISR teams are done for the year already, and also IMO they weren't all upsets like the ISR's would say.
TXThorn, please tell me you took statistics at Collie Station. You really don't understand the difference between odds and outcomes?
Boyd Nation did an enormous amount of data analysis to develop the ISR. His formula naturally ignores data that turned out not to have statistically significant relevance. If you have evidence of data that invalidates the ISR, I am certain that Boyd would be delighted to hear from you so that he can significantly improve the ISR. He is kind of a stickler for details, you know...
Everybody with a clue recognizes that baseball outcomes do not perfectly align with what the odds predict, primarily due to sample size issues.
Based on this season's body of evidence (which of course is not large enough to be perfect), the facts are that Texas is a significant underdog to ASU, even in a series at D-F.
As always in baseball, anything can happen.
Boyd Nation did an enormous amount of data analysis to develop the ISR. His formula naturally ignores data that turned out not to have statistically significant relevance. If you have evidence of data that invalidates the ISR, I am certain that Boyd would be delighted to hear from you so that he can significantly improve the ISR. He is kind of a stickler for details, you know...
Everybody with a clue recognizes that baseball outcomes do not perfectly align with what the odds predict, primarily due to sample size issues.
Based on this season's body of evidence (which of course is not large enough to be perfect), the facts are that Texas is a significant underdog to ASU, even in a series at D-F.
As always in baseball, anything can happen.
Hook 'Em Danno
1,000+ Posts
Vegas odds have nothing to do with who should win based on body of evidence. I'm fairly certain that with the evidence provided thus far this season that Ariz St would be the favorite regardless of home field. Our offense has consistently put us in position to lose and ArizSt is not a team you can plan on beating 3-2. It is baseball and we could win 1-0, but it's just as likely that we'd need 8 or 9 to win because Ariz St can put 5-6 runs up against a good pitcher with his "A" game.
LonghornsWin
500+ Posts
Nobody puts up 5 or 6 runs against our pitching on A game.
B or C, yes, but not A game.
B or C, yes, but not A game.
T
TXThorn
Guest
I was very clear on how Vegas odds are derived and that they are predominantly fixed around how they feel people will bet to get even bets on both sides. Read. But I will also tell you that ISR is not an all-encompassing collection of facts to determine favorites. Do you watch baseball? Let's see, we have a better defense. We have the homefield advantage and the records show that to be pertinent. Both are very important in tight games. Our team ERA is a point lower. Their runs per game is almost a run higher, not quite. That basically makes that a wash. However, in a 2 of 3 playoff series what do I feel is the better advantage? Pitching/defense > offense. In MLB and NCAA you see the dominant pitching teams really begin to flex their presence and the value of such. You can play with the components of the ISR all day long, I know baseball and I know what advantages typically outweigh others in playoffs and especially in a 2 of 3 format...even if slightly. And just as Texas pitching dominated Kent St. today, it will rise again at the right time.
Acting like ISR is a non-debatable way of determining who the favorite will be is simply obtuse. But that's fine, you have your opinion of what criteria should be used and I have mine. And if it makes you feel better to insult mine, that's fine. And as for the Vegas odds (which i'm not saying will do anything but set a favorite and dog in their manner), I guarantee Texas will be the favorite. Hoping I can find them somewhere this week to back up my claim. If I'm wrong, I'll also be man enough to admit it.
Acting like ISR is a non-debatable way of determining who the favorite will be is simply obtuse. But that's fine, you have your opinion of what criteria should be used and I have mine. And if it makes you feel better to insult mine, that's fine. And as for the Vegas odds (which i'm not saying will do anything but set a favorite and dog in their manner), I guarantee Texas will be the favorite. Hoping I can find them somewhere this week to back up my claim. If I'm wrong, I'll also be man enough to admit it.
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