Recruiting and the Elite Eight

L

LazyEngineer

500+ Posts
Every year, I calculate a weighted recruiting team rank based on number of national top-100 players on each team and their classification. Each player contributes points as follows:
Points = (101 - Natl Rank) + (7 * Yrs).

Example points:
122 - David Padgett (#7 player in 2003) - The top overall player.
111 - Tyler Hansbrough (#4 player in 2005)
104 - Mario Chalmers (#11 player in 2005)
100 - OJ Mayo (#1 player in 2007)
99 - Brook Lopez (#9 player in 2006)
79 - Dion Dowell (#43 player in 2004)
53 - AJ Abrams (#62 player in 2005)

I update the active players on each team accounting for transfers, early entry, etc in February (to the best of my knowledge). I am amazed every year how well the resulting talent ratings correlate with the tournament performance.

This year's elite 8 is made of the following:
#2 Kansas - 840 pts
#3 North Carolina - 798 pts
#4 Louisville - 635 pts
#9 Memphis - 447 pts
#11 UCLA - 415 pts
#19 Texas - 353 pts
#52 Xavier - 132 pts
#UR Davidson - no top-100 players

For what it's worth, here are some the other top-10 classes and others of interest:
1. Duke - 858
5. Michigan St - 622
6. Syracuse - 849
7. Arizona - 524
8. Connecticut - 482
10. Kentucky - 423
22. Tennessee - 325
27. Oklahoma St - 299
34. Wisconsin - 239
37. K-State - 212
44. Baylor - 173
49. Oklahoma - 155
53. Texas A&M - 131

Also, here are some rankings of previous Texas teams using the same formula:
2008 Texas - #19 - 353 pts (Elite 8 +)
2007 Texas - #19 - 322 pts (Rnd of 32)
2006 Texas - #10 - 457 pts (Elite 8)
2005 Texas - #15 - 441 pts (Sweet 16)
 
Good stuff.

Just so your excellent work can be 100% accurate, you probably will want to fix the years at the end of your post. It should read:

2008 Texas - #19 - 353 pts (Elite 8 +)
2007 Texas - #19 - 322 pts (Rnd of 32)
2006 Texas - #10 - 457 pts (Elite 8)
2004 Texas - #15 - 441 pts (Sweet 16)

Don't worry. I'd like to forget our 2005 tournament "run" too.
 
great post. confirms what I have always argued. wonder if we can run comparison of coaches based on talent and success. interesting to see which coaches do less with more and more with less. thanks
 
You've obviously put some time into this. I like how you've tried to incorporate some kind of incremental increase in a player's ranking based on how many years they've been in school.

I do wonder who had AJ Abrams ranked #62, because most of the ranking services I saw had him outside the top 100.
 
SLX - I use the following consensus rankings:
RCSI

At least according to that site, here were AJ's rankings:
Prep Stars - 86
Hoop Scoop - 48
Rivals Hoops - UR
Hoopmasters - 75
Insiders Hoops - UR
 
Great stuff. How did you arrive at your formula? If I understand it correctly, it says a senior who was unranked coming out of high school is the equivalent of a #80 freshman. I'm not necessarily disputing this, because most mathematical models break down at the limits, but am I correct in assuming that you'd essentially equate Ian Mooney as a senior with AJ Abrams as a freshman?

I find the idea that Kentucky comes in #10 very interesting. The standard defense of BCG's early struggles at UK was that Tubby Smith left the cupboard bare. It sure doesn't look that way by your analysis. Also, Oklahoma State's ranking seems surprisingly high. I guess Sean Sutton isn't the coaching genius I thought he was . . .

Thanks for posting this.
 
Thanks, LazyEngineer.

I will say an average ranking of #62 is a little misleading, given that it's not like Rivals and Scout had Abrams ranked #101, but it's tough to figure out a way to accurately account for the way various services list each player.

I didn't realize Hoop Scoop had Abrams at #48. Kudos to them. I don't think I would have ranked him that high if I was in charge of a recruiting service, but in hindsight, that's a more accurate representation of his talent level than any of the other services.

The problem with Kentucky isn't that the cupboard was bare. It's that Gillispie is a ruthless hardass who had to teach those players the hard way they were either going to play the way he wanted, or they weren't going to play at all. By the end of the year they were playing the way he wanted them to, but getting there was a rough road.

Sean Sutton has brought in a surprising amount of talent to OSU, and that's not even including the players that haven't played a lick, like Brumbaugh, Gary Flowers and Gerald Green, or the various guys who have transferred out of the program. They've completely underachieved under his watch compared to what they should have accomplished given the level of players they've had at their disposal.
 
Good Post. Interesting to look at the effect of recruiting on tournament success. However many of the rankings are flawed to begin with. Take DJ for example. Rivals had him as #49 player overall in 06 and #6 PG that year. Atchley wasn't anywhere on anybody's radar coming out in 04 but has developed into a premier defensive contributor as well as an outside shooter.

I would have thought that Hansbrough and Chalmers would have much higher point total than Mayo right now. Dion Dowell has more points than Abrams?

Just curious what the point totals for the Texas players this year.
 
Yep. By the way, here are the scores for this year's players:

(Points, player, National Rank, Class)

93 - Damion James: #15, 2005
79 - D.J. Augustin: #29, 2006
76 - Gary Johnson: #25, 2007
53 - A.J. Abrams: #62, 2005
26 - Dexter Pittman: #82, 2006
26 - Clint Chapman: #75, 2007

For reference, here is the same data for the remaining Final Four teams:

Memphis:
95 - Derrick Rose: #6, 2007
87 - Chris Douglas-Roberts: #28, 2005
67 - Willie Kemp: #41, 2006
46 - Jeff Robinson: #55, 2007
41 - Antonio Anderson: #74, 2005
36 - Pierre Niles: #72, 2006
30 - Robert Dozier: #92, 2004
24 - Doneal Mack: #84, 2006
21 - Shawn Taggart: #94, 2005

FYI - Joey Dorsey was a 3-star out of high school!


Kansas:
104 - Mario Chalmers: #11, 2005
97 - Brandon Rush: #18, 2005
97 - Darrell Arthur: #11, 2006
94 - Sherron Collins: #14, 2006
93 - Rodrick Stewart: #36, 2003
93 - Russell Robinson: #29, 2004
87 - Sasha Kaun: #35, 2004
80 - Cole Aldrich: #21, 2007
53 - Darnell Jackson: #69, 2004
42 - Tyrel Reed: #59, 2007


North Carolina:
111 - Tyler Hansbrough: #4, 2005
103 - Tywon Lawson: #5, 2006
100 - Wayne Ellington: #8, 2006
98 - Bobby Frasor: #17, 2005
84 - Marcus Ginyard: #31, 2005
73 - Danny Green: #42, 2005
69 - Alex Stepheson: #39, 2006
66 - Quentin Thomas: #56, 2004
65 - Deon Thompson: #43, 2006
29 - William Graves: #79, 2006

UCLA:
99 - Kevin Love: #2, 2007
70 - James Keefe: #38, 2006
69 - Ryan Wright: #46, 2005
60 - Josh Shipp: #62, 2004
45 - Lorenzo Mata: #77, 2004
37 - Chace Stanback: #64, 2007
35 - Alfred Aboya: #80, 2005

FYI - Darren Collison was ranked just over 100 out of high school. Russell Westbrook was a 3-star.
 
I'm not surprised you are an engineer.
biggrin.gif
Thanks for putting that together!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Weekly Prediction Contest

* Predict HORNS-AGGIES *
Sat, Nov 30 • 6:30 PM on ABC

Recent Threads

Prediction Results Threads

2024 Schedules

Back
Top