Making predictions about market movement (timing the market) has been shown to be folly. However, recognizing underlying economic trends has made a few prognosticators very, very rich. Most notably, the housing bubble collapse skyrocketed the value of tradeable insurance contracts (credit default swaps), and massive returns were earned by those owning those contracts (long positions).
Other than the crazy valuation of a few start-up/early stage tech companies (I believe those that have billion dollar valuations are now referred to as Unicorns, and most of those are still privately owned), it does not seem that there are any bubbles in the economy.
Thoughts on how each candidate's platform will affect the economy? Stock and bond markets?
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Summary of Trump's and Hillary's Platforms (from their websites):
China:
Economists estimate the Chinese yuan is undervalued by anywhere from 15% to 40%. This grossly undervalued yuan gives Chinese exporters a huge advantage while imposing the equivalent of a heavy tariff on U.S. exports to China. Such currency manipulation, in concert with China’s other unfair practices, has resulted in chronic U.S. trade deficits, a severe weakening of the U.S. manufacturing base and the loss of tens of millions of American jobs.
Trump: the Trump administration the U.S. Treasury Department will designate China as a currency manipulator. This will begin a process that imposes appropriate countervailing duties on artificially cheap Chinese products, defends U.S. manufacturers and workers, and revitalizes job growth in America.
Hillary: States she is against China's currency manipulation
Taxes:
Trump: -Lower the corporate tax rate to 15%
-All other Americans will get a simpler tax code with four brackets – 0%, 10%, 20% and 25% – instead of the current seven. This new tax code eliminates the marriage penalty and the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) while providing the lowest tax rate since before World War II.
-No family will have to pay the death tax.
-phase in a reasonable cap on the deductibility of business interest expenses.
-Allow individuals to fully deduct health insurance premium payments from their tax returns
Hillary: -Providing tax relief. America’s smallest businesses—those with one to five employees—spend 150 hours and $1,100 per employee to comply with federal taxes. That’s more than 20 times higher than the average for larger firms. Hillary will simplify tax filing and provide targeted tax relief for small businesses—not big corporations that can afford lawyers and lobbyists.
- (Per NY Times) -1.2 trillion in tax increases aimed mostly at the wealthy, according to a recent independent report
-$275 billion in infrastructure spending
New Regulations:
Trump: -Stop corporate inversion
-Requirement to hire American workers first (limit hiring under H1B visas)
-Immigration moderation. Before any new green cards are issued to foreign workers abroad, there will be a pause where employers will have to hire from the domestic pool of unemployed immigrant and native workers.
Hillary:
-Launch a national effort (?) to cut the red tape holding small businesses and entrepreneurs back.
-Stop corporate inversion
- Defend, implement, and extend smart pollution and efficiency standards
-Ensure safe and responsible energy production. As we transition to a clean energy economy, we must ensure that the fossil fuel production taking place today is safe and responsible and that areas too sensitive for energy production are taken off the table. Hillary knows there are some places where we should keep fossil fuels in the ground or under the ocean.
-Make environmental justice and climate justice central priorities
-Reform leasing on public lands. As president, Hillary would reform fossil fuel leasing
-Cut methane emissions across the economy.
- Her plan will Reduce American oil consumption by a third through cleaner fuels and more efficient cars, boilers, ships and trucks. Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 30 percent in 2025 relative to 2005 levels and put the country on a path to cut emissions more than 80 percent by 2050.
-Strengthen unions and protect worker bargaining power.
-Raise the minimum wage and strengthen overtime rules.
-Support working families through equal pay, paid family leave, earned sick days, fair schedules, and quality affordable child care.
Spending:
Trump: Nada (he has mentioned infrastructure spending, but no specifics on website)
Hillary: -subsidize illegal immigrants health insurance
-Many new programs outlined
-(Per NY Times) -about $1.4 trillion in new spending over the next decade
Immigration:
Trump: -Defund sanctuary cities
-Build a wall : tax credits alone paid to illegal immigrants quadrupled to $4.2 billion in 2011.
Hillary:
-let families—regardless of immigration status—buy into the Affordable Care Act exchanges
-Defend President Obama’s DACA and DAPA executive actions. Spend more money helping integrate immigrants
-path to citizenship
Other than the crazy valuation of a few start-up/early stage tech companies (I believe those that have billion dollar valuations are now referred to as Unicorns, and most of those are still privately owned), it does not seem that there are any bubbles in the economy.
Thoughts on how each candidate's platform will affect the economy? Stock and bond markets?
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Summary of Trump's and Hillary's Platforms (from their websites):
China:
Economists estimate the Chinese yuan is undervalued by anywhere from 15% to 40%. This grossly undervalued yuan gives Chinese exporters a huge advantage while imposing the equivalent of a heavy tariff on U.S. exports to China. Such currency manipulation, in concert with China’s other unfair practices, has resulted in chronic U.S. trade deficits, a severe weakening of the U.S. manufacturing base and the loss of tens of millions of American jobs.
Trump: the Trump administration the U.S. Treasury Department will designate China as a currency manipulator. This will begin a process that imposes appropriate countervailing duties on artificially cheap Chinese products, defends U.S. manufacturers and workers, and revitalizes job growth in America.
Hillary: States she is against China's currency manipulation
Taxes:
Trump: -Lower the corporate tax rate to 15%
-All other Americans will get a simpler tax code with four brackets – 0%, 10%, 20% and 25% – instead of the current seven. This new tax code eliminates the marriage penalty and the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) while providing the lowest tax rate since before World War II.
-No family will have to pay the death tax.
-phase in a reasonable cap on the deductibility of business interest expenses.
-Allow individuals to fully deduct health insurance premium payments from their tax returns
Hillary: -Providing tax relief. America’s smallest businesses—those with one to five employees—spend 150 hours and $1,100 per employee to comply with federal taxes. That’s more than 20 times higher than the average for larger firms. Hillary will simplify tax filing and provide targeted tax relief for small businesses—not big corporations that can afford lawyers and lobbyists.
- (Per NY Times) -1.2 trillion in tax increases aimed mostly at the wealthy, according to a recent independent report
-$275 billion in infrastructure spending
New Regulations:
Trump: -Stop corporate inversion
-Requirement to hire American workers first (limit hiring under H1B visas)
-Immigration moderation. Before any new green cards are issued to foreign workers abroad, there will be a pause where employers will have to hire from the domestic pool of unemployed immigrant and native workers.
Hillary:
-Launch a national effort (?) to cut the red tape holding small businesses and entrepreneurs back.
-Stop corporate inversion
- Defend, implement, and extend smart pollution and efficiency standards
-Ensure safe and responsible energy production. As we transition to a clean energy economy, we must ensure that the fossil fuel production taking place today is safe and responsible and that areas too sensitive for energy production are taken off the table. Hillary knows there are some places where we should keep fossil fuels in the ground or under the ocean.
-Make environmental justice and climate justice central priorities
-Reform leasing on public lands. As president, Hillary would reform fossil fuel leasing
-Cut methane emissions across the economy.
- Her plan will Reduce American oil consumption by a third through cleaner fuels and more efficient cars, boilers, ships and trucks. Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 30 percent in 2025 relative to 2005 levels and put the country on a path to cut emissions more than 80 percent by 2050.
-Strengthen unions and protect worker bargaining power.
-Raise the minimum wage and strengthen overtime rules.
-Support working families through equal pay, paid family leave, earned sick days, fair schedules, and quality affordable child care.
Spending:
Trump: Nada (he has mentioned infrastructure spending, but no specifics on website)
Hillary: -subsidize illegal immigrants health insurance
-Many new programs outlined
-(Per NY Times) -about $1.4 trillion in new spending over the next decade
Immigration:
Trump: -Defund sanctuary cities
-Build a wall : tax credits alone paid to illegal immigrants quadrupled to $4.2 billion in 2011.
Hillary:
-let families—regardless of immigration status—buy into the Affordable Care Act exchanges
-Defend President Obama’s DACA and DAPA executive actions. Spend more money helping integrate immigrants
-path to citizenship
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