Oklahoma-make or break

I

IndyHorn

250+ Posts
I worry that there are Texas players that peruse this site, as I don't want to heap extra pressure upon them. But in my view, Oklahoma is the game which will decide whether it is NCAA or NIT for this year's team. After cratering on national TV on Monday, I now think Texas is on the outside looking in as far as what Jay Bilas calls the "smell test". As in, who amongst viewers on Big Monday, thinks Texas smells like a NCAA tournament team? For that matter, who amongst us does? So OU is crucial. What does everyone think Texas needs to win that ball game on Saturday? My list includes:
1) Effective 2-3 zone to somewhat neutralize Griffin (with the quickness of James and Johnson, can we rebound effectively in a zone?)
2) Huge, Vocal, and Supportive crowd. If a would-be number one ranked OU team can't draw out the faithful on Saturday night, who the hell will?
3) AJ Abrams as a decoy flat out. That is unless OU pays him less attention than A&M did. That play Barnes set up prior to half in CS still eats at me. Texas isn't rich with scorers. But if the oppostion is playing a damn near box-and-one on AJ with help on every screen. Then let AJ jog to and fro and let Garry Johnson and Damion James do damage from the elbow. AJ needs to get off for us to score 80, but we do not need to score 80 to beat OU or anyone else for that matter.
4) Mason and Balbay need to attack off the dribble. It would be huge bonus to have Mason hit an open three early to force OU to heed him outside. But he and Dogues need to attack the Sooner interior off the dribble. They will be one and one, with someone glued to AJ. Beat someone guys!
5) Garry Johnson, Gary Johnson, Gary Johnson. His pin move will be the quickest Griffin has encountered. Get the big red head in some foul trouble. Crowd noise a factor here for obvious reasons.
Sorry for the wall of text. But this game is the biggest of the season, no doubt about that, right? Texas 69 OU 63. I still insist that that Sooner team is not good enough to run the table. Of course, it might not be our Horns which prove that!
 
I expect Texas to play at home something like A&M, Purdue and Vanderbilt played at home in the last two nights. They need this game. OU wants it. If there is a difference Texas can capitalize on, that's it.
 
From a Sooner perspective, there are two things that concern me about Saturday's matchup:
a.) We have had a hard time containing quick PGs that can penetrate and dish....and Balbay is exactly that. He is very good at breaking down a defense. I say we just foul his *** cause he can't shoot FTs.
b.) Gary Johnson has asserted himself this season, which creates a matchup problem for us on defense. I can see him getting one of the Griffins in foul trouble with his quickness and he is too big for Crocker to guard. My guess is Patillo probably guards him most of the game.

I expect Abrams to get his 15-20 pts, so we need to contain Damion James and Johnson....meaning few 2nd chance opportunities. If we can hit some 3s, that will open things up as it has all season. If we are cold from the outside, we are going to have a hard time scoring on a tough UT defense.

I disagree with those of you that think OU can't run the table. The Big 12, simply put, isn't that good this year. The one thing that this OU team is guilty of this season is complacency...they tend to play down, at times, to their level of competition. They know they are better than everyone that they come up against, so it's natural to relax and not be focused at times. Having said that, they have turned it on when they have needed to.....i.e. when they appeared lackluster or in danger of losing. Still, our best chance of losing in the Big 12 regular seasons is in Austin Saturday. I think we match up relatively well with KU and Mizzou, but not so much with UT. The game Saturday, IMO, is a tossup.....probably a 4 or 5 pt game that could go either way.
 
I will be absolutely shocked if Texas wins this game.

Best chance will be to get OU's frontcourt in foul trouble. It'd be nice if Johnson, Warren, and Crocker can have an off night from the 3 point line, too.

A 5 point loss will feel like a victory at this point.
 
"I say we just foul his *** cause he can't shoot FTs"

I think that's a hell of an idea. In fact, I'd love to see Balbay pick up a dozen fouls from the dirt thieves big men. Put big Blake on the bench.

What i'd really like to see is a few Balbay dunks. Barnes keeps saying he'd win a team dunk contest hands down, but I don't think he's dunked in a game.
 
Balbay is certainly quick, but he really needs to work on his decision-making when he gets in the lane. THis obviously does not come overnight in division 1 basketball and will take some time. Not sure he can figure it out before Saturday, but he can make some big strides in a big game.

I think the key to the game and OU's season is Austin Johnson. There is no doubt he will get open shots, that is just the fact of the matter when you play OU - he will be open. If he hits 3's, then we are toast. If he is cold, then we have a really good shot (if a number of other things go our way).
 
Darn SL Express. I know you know your stuff, and your flat expectations for Texas in this game are, thus,disheartening. This is my last gasp of optimism for this year's team. So I will have to side with Bob in that I expect an awfully good effort from our team. This is it. Let's go! Texas Fight!!!!!!!!!
 
After losing to the Ags on Monday I told my son that we now must beat OU to make our season.

However....

I don't think it is make or break as far as the NCAA's are concerned. If we get to 19 or 20 wins, which is still a tall order, we are going to get in. Like it or not your reputation does have a lot to do with getting in the tournament although it really should only be based on what you do in that particular season.

We are probably an 8 seed right now but I have a feeling if we beat OU and win a game or two in the Big XII tourney we will make it to a 6 or 7 based on our reputation.
 
Admittedly, I am being somewhat overly dramatic when I claim the OU game is boom or bust for our NCAA hopes. But I still think the statement is valid based on circumstance. If we lose to OU, I think the team will be crest fallen, devestated. Confidence will be shot. And as a consequence, they will not be able to go 3-1 or, even 2-2 down the stretch. I know some think Texas can get a NCAA bid having gone 8-8 in conference. I think it'll take 9-7. Either way, losing at minimum 3 conference home games with one loss coming to Kansas State, a similarly "bubbled" team, I think our goose will be cooked for a NCAA bid. The proof will be in the pudding. If SL Express and others are right, and we have little shot against OU, then I hope I'm wrong. But in the meantime, let's hope I am right that Texas can come up with a great effort tomorrow and pop the damned Sooners' hopes of running the table, and not our own NCAA bubble. !
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if this team plays like it has been lately, then there is almost no chance. but the fact remains that if they can put it together, they can beat ou. damion, gary, dex and aj need to all be in this game from the get-go. it would be nice to see connor step up as well. i hope that they play fast and loose on offense and extremely physical on defense. here's to hoping....
 
UT is going to win this one. I just think the sheer desperation of trying to make the tourney will overcome the fact that OU is a better team this season. We'll see, but a victory over the #2 team (overranked or not) would be a big resume builder (along with wins over Nova and UCLA).

The comment about KState was a very perceptive one. I don't know the Kitties remaining schedule, but if they finish with a slightly better conference record than UT, that could spell doom for the Horns, because I don't see our conference getting more than 4 teams in the tourney. Right now, those would be OU, KU, MU and either UT/KSU. KSU doesn't have the non-conference resume, but if they finish 9-7 while UT finishes 8-8, the head-to-head victory in Austin may prove to be the difference.
 
If Kansas State gets to 8 wins in conference, then we need to get to 9. I'd think that was fair. And then I guess the two teams might face-off again in the Big 12 tourney second round to settle things even more firmly. I want to force Clemente to go for 44 on us again!! I should be careful what I ask for, huh?
 
I won't be shocked if we win at all. OU isn't as good as you think, and UT isn't as bad as you think. Perhaps this time we realize that their team isn't just Griffin and Warren. Don't play zone because you don't want them to drain open threes. Pittman can definitely handle Blake down low but can't get into foul trouble. I would start Dexy. My lineup would be Pittman, Johnson, James, Abrams, and Balbay.
 
Even before our last little run, I was calling for this game to be our most likely way to 9-7 versus winning on the road @Aggy or even @OSU. This has been the home game of the year since before the season started. And, now it's even more of a desparation game for the statement we need to make to get into the NCAA tourney.

I expect the players to come out on fire and play (like the Aggies did against us down there). The crowd will be into it - and that always encourages a little home cooking from the refs.

Don't get me wrong. OU is the better team and they certainly can pull it out. But, I actually like our chances.
 
OUEngineer, I hear you about the ability of your backcourt to connect from long range thus far. My, maybe blind, hope is that the Drum is crazy loud and raucous tomorrow, and maybe the week off has altered y'alls timing. Griffin is a beast. So if I'm Barnes I find some way to contain him, 2-3 zone or other, and hope and pray the OU gunners are off. You've got a nice team this season. Warren reminds me a ton of Joe Dumars in both his game and his demeanor. I hope that kid leaves with Griffin this spring!!!!!
 
Actually, Pittman had a fairly good game against OU. I checked the box score, he had 6 points and 4 rebounds in 21 minutes (to go with 4 PFs).

As I recall, he actually did a decent job of bodying up on Blake. His fouls were more careless over-the-back and reaching. With the home crowd, I figure the refs may let him bang around a bit. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Barnes start him against Griffin - of course, providing some double-team help when possible.
 
Bob, people have the same outlook on this game as your's truly. Texas is DESPERATE. With the FEC at their backs -- and a little home cookin' -- I feel they pull it off.

We shall see.
 
OU by 15 or 20. The team will play hard, but they can't hang with OU. Sad to say, but get real. OU is the #2 team in the country, and we just got it handed to us by a crappy in state rival. Really ...A&M isn't that good and they handled us.
We might win 3 of the last 5 if we can beat OSU. Face it we aren't Elite 8 good like some TV guys say. We may not even be NIT second round good. We need a guard who can score, a forward or two who can score and shoot free throws, and a big man who can stay out of foul trouble. Hmmmm, sounds a lot like what OU has now.
 
Bob, I sure wouldn't bet Texas if that line actually is accurate. I definitely want a more comfortable game than that. Anyone feel good about Texas shooting free throws in a tight game down the stretch? I don't think it's possible for Texas to win a 1 point game as Damion James showed last weekend. Blow out or bust, a tight one goes OU's way. I am feeling better on a Texas win. Texas by 10!!
That, or I am off to do my taxes, and will bid adiue to Hornfans until football season unless Ben Crenshaw wins the US Senior open here in Indy this summer.....
 
Just have to say - I called it.
Of course, I didn't know that Griffin would be fogged out of the second half, but I did feel like UT would give their best fueled by a raucous crowd.
Big win. Just what we needed to cement our spot in the dance.
 
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