Okay, Here We Go

Arbfarkle

Arbfarkle

250+ Posts
Going in to the tournament, two things are apparent.
1. The tie breaker does affect the odds.
2. Winning the first game is HUGE.

Right now, Texas has a 31.25 percent shot at getting to the title game.
Texas A&M is at 25%. Texas Tech and Missouri each at 21.875.
With a win Texas goes to 50% The Ag and Tech winner goes to 37.5 and the 2 with losses go to 6.25% each.

If Missouri and the Ags win on Wednesday.
Ags at 43.75
Missouri 37.5
Texas 12.5
Texas Tech 6.25

If Missouri and Tech win that day,
they each have 37.5 % chance at getting to the big un.
Texas and the Texas Ags only 12.5 each.

I hope that Texas can beat a team 5 times in a season. I don't know where to look up how common such a thing is. Guess we will see how it goes.
 
Records amongst common opponents (UT, aTm, TT, MO):
UT . . . . . . 8-1
TT . . . . . . 4-5
aTm . . . . . 4-5
MO . . . . . . 2-7

Records away from home amongst common opponents:
UT . . . . . . . 7-1
MO . . . . . . . 2-4
TT . . . . . . . .1-2
aTm . . . . . . 0-1

I'm no actuary, but I'm guessing the odds of Texas landing in the Title game are much higher than 31.25%.
 
Texas played Missouri early in the year. So Texas is 9-1 Missouri is 2-8.
Ignoring who is "better" , there are 64 ways that the first 6 games can go.
Texas would go in 20 of those. Texas A&M would go in 16 of them.
Texas Tech or Missouri each would get 14 chances.
Probabilities based as if each game were 50-50 (coin flip).
 
Forgot about that one.

Still, I don't gamble, but doesn't that calculation imply an almost 3:1 payout if Texas does make the title game and wins it all?
 
"I hope that Texas can beat a team 5 times in a season"

I seem to recall that Baylor beat Texas 5 times in 2005, then we sent them packing by beating them twice in Omaha in route to winning it all.
 
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