Obama is in great shape

R

RyanUTAustin

1,000+ Posts
Most projections show he will actually come out with more delegates than HRC after last night.

They are neck and neck...

The Democratic campaigns now turn their attention to the Louisiana primary and Nebraska and Washington caucuses Saturday and the Maine caucuses Sunday.

Barack won every caucuse last night. The reason is that people can be convinced he is the better candidate.

Then the Potomac primaries in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia next Tuesday.

Barack is ahead in most of these contests, the next 2 weeks should be another good momentum builder rolling into March 4th.
 
Here is what's at stake for the rest of February:

State - Date - Delegates at stake:

Washington 02/09 - 97

Louisiana 02/09 - 66

Nebraska 02/09 - 31

Maine 02/10 - 34

Virginia 02/12 - 101

Maryland 02/12 - 99

District of Columbia 02/12 - 38
 
I wonder who Speaker Pelosi wants to win the nomination?

1. There's room for only one "queen bee" in Washington, not two.

2. If HRC's negative's in any way threaten the Dems' control of congress come election time...
 
Super tuesday gives him a good chance to trumpet that he's the more electable candidate. Hillary won all the states the dems already win, but Obama absolutely crushed her in the south and middle america. If he can defeat her in Ohio, then he can make a good case that he'll do better in swing states, and thus stands a better chance of winning the general election. He also polls much better among republicans than she does. Of course, this is before the conservative spin machine has gotten ahold of him, so who knows what a real election would bring.
 
Obama's in "great shape" because he works out 4 times a week.

Hillary, McCain, and Huckabee can't claim that.

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The question of who is more electable may still be clouded by many as yet unknown factors, but there is absolutely no question which of the two is
a) more polarizing
b) has higher negatives
c) galvanizes the opposition

Of the two, I think the Dems should avoid the candidate who fits the description above.
 
Here is a post at dkos (blog alert) that I think gives a good assessment of the progression that is set to unfold based on location and structure (caucus/primary) and how momentum will come into play in a way that gives Obama the upper hand:The Link
 
Regarding Washington State...
Though Clinton owns WA State Senators Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell (she bailed them out of major fundraising debts with their campaigns) I think Obama walks away with the caucuses. Both times he's visited the State in the last year his speeches have given to thousands of onlookers. I'm not a volunteer or anything close but just in work discussions and friends the political talk revolves around Obama support. Considering Hillary Clinton has spoken at my place of employment twice in the last 6 years and the company I work at is very liberal this is surprising.

So, though Washington State is the closest of the 3 races on 2/9 I don't think it will be that close.
 
I just remembered a wildcard that could be thrown in this race.

John Edwards still has not endorsed a candidate.

Apparently the poor voters are leaning toward Hillary.

Could that draw John to endorse her?
 
I understand that there are over 500 super delegates that are still undeclared. I'm still familiarizing myself with it, but it sounds like that is also an area that remains a potential tidal shift.

The current difference in delegates is not really significant and Obama might even be ahead. It's all about looking ahead right now.

.
 
I don't think Obama will be leading in total delagates after they are counted today...but he may have lead in delagates from Super Tuesday.
 
I think Obama has a slight lead in Super Tuesday delegates and in pledged delegates. But if you include super delegates, he trails Hillary. He could make it up in the next couple of weeks. Chances are that he would be leading, even including super delegated, going into the March 4 primary. I would say he is in a little bit better position that Hillary at this point.
 
I think a few things that Obama going for him are

1. Hillary's biggest advantage seems to be Latinos. But I think only state left with major Latino presence is Texas.
2. Hillary also benefited quite a bit from front runner status and early name recognition, which put Obama in a catch up mode till now. Now that things have slowed down, he would have time to do more campaigning, which he seems to do very well.
3. Money - It looks like Obama is going to be much better funded than Hillary, which is a surprise.
4. Ground organization - Obama has a better and much more enthusiastic organization. Hillary's support is from people who are comfortable with the known and status quo. Unfortunately for her, they also tend to be relatively unenthusiastic.
 
Obama says he will bring us all together, one U.S.A. He is a uniter, not a divider...oh, wait. There's two parties, and each dislikes the other. They don't get on the same page very often.
Guess I'll still support Hillary.
 
So that link says that Hillary "loaned" her campaign 5 million dollars. How does that work? Can she just take all the money Bill gets from speaking fees and funnel it straight into her campaign?

It seems that makes any kind of campaign finance laws completely irrelevant. Could some big donor pay Obama's wife 20 million dollars to shake her hand, then they "loan" that money to his campaign?
 
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