Notre Dame Decision

K

Kadabra

100+ Posts
Well....since football season is done and basketball seems to be a wash, we need to stay busy chatting about other stuff.

Did i not hear back in October that Notre Dame was going to make a Decision in January about whether to move its non-football sports to the Big 12?

I haven't heard anything lately since that initial posting by Chip Brown in Orangebloods, hence I wonder if there is anything else to the story.
 
I think ND is going to make some kind of statement or move in the next several days due to several recent developments. Here are some of the highlights of those recent developments:* 2 BE basketball schools have gone out investigating putting together a basketball-only league, and withdrawing from the BE.* The B12 and ESPN are talking about moving up contract negotiations to January 2012.* Oklahoma has announced a tentative deal with FOX for OU's Tier 3 sports, with carriage in Texas and Oklahoma, that could begin next season, and earn the Sooners between $3-$6M per year.
What I think all this means is (1) the B12 is going to expand to at least 12 teams very soon now (probably this month), and (2) the BE remains unstable in spite of ND's attempts to shore it up.

ND, of course, has many options ranging from remaining independent, which is probably their preference, to joining a conference. The usual choices tend to boil down to (a) independence, (b) join the B1G, (c) join the ACC, (d) join the B12, (e) associate with the B12. No one seems to think the SEC or PAC are destinations preferred by ND.

I do think ND remains the linchpin for what happens in the next few weeks. Here's what I think ND's possible choices mean for the B12.

The B12 (along with every other conference) hopes ND will join for all sports. If they want to join the B12, then ND gets slot #11. But for now let's assume ND remains independent, and let's work through the various scenarios.

Scenario 1 - Independence: If ND remains independent, or does nothing, then, with B12 television renegotiation about to commence, I think there's no question the B12 moves to at least 12 teams. The hold at 10 teams has been primarily driven by waiting until the TV contract comes up for renegotiation before moving back to 12. Why split the pot 12 ways when you can split it 10 ways? So now the TV contract gets renegotiated, and the B12 moves to 12.

In Scenario #1, I suspect the B12 raids the BE again for #11 and #12. These would be teams like Rutgers, Connecticut, Louisville, or Cincinnati, due to their markets and relative proximity to WVU or one another, and therefore probably not USF, Tulane, or Memphis (at least not these schools in a move to 12). BYU remains a very remote possibility, due to their significant intangibles, but BYU appears to be absolutely intransigent in negotiations. Of course, taking one or two from the BE further weakens the BE, but we are assuming ND stays put for this scenario. The B12 adds 2 and probably holds at 12. I bet Rutgers and Louisville.

Scenario 2 - B1G: If ND joined the B1G, the B1G would pair ND most likely with Maryland, Syracuse, or Rutgers, probably preferring Maryland. Whichever one is taken by the B1G to pair with ND obviously is out of play for the B12. I do not think the B1G would move to 16; however, 14-team leagues are scheduling nightmares, so holding at 14 is not clear. Again, the B12 adds 2 from the list in Scenario #1 (less what the B1G adds), but may or may not hold at 12, depending on if the ACC became destabilized.

Scenario 3 - ACC: If ND joined the ACC, then the ACC could add one more, before maxing out at 16. Probably the ACC picks from Rutgers or Connecticut, probably preferring Connecticut. Again, the B12 adds 2 from the list in Scenario #1 (less what the ACC adds) and probably holds at 12.

If I have underestimated the SEC, and if ND joined the SEC, the analysis for the SEC, from the POV of the B12, would essentially be the same as that for the ACC, since the SEC also has 14 teams. Since the SEC has no shot at Texas or OU, the SEC would prefer a team from the States of Virginia or North Carolina, and this time the SEC might succeed in prying one away from the ACC on the strength of the addition of ND. Once again the B12 adds 2 from the list in Scenario #1 (less what the SEC adds), but may or may not hold at 12, depending on if the ACC became destabilized.
Scenario 4 - Big 12: If ND joined the Big 12, which I think stands a better chance than most people think, then things could get interesting quickly, given ND's perceived football prestige, and the fact that the B12 has significant room for expansion, sitting at only 10 teams. If ND decided it was time to leave the BE, the main reasons ND would join the B12 would be to create a ND television network and retain their Tier 3 income.

If ND joined the B12, then maybe the B12 could entice Maryland (part of the Washington D.C. footprint) to leave the ACC and join ND in the B12? Rutgers (and the NYC market: over 600,000 Rutgers viewers) is also sitting there. With ND and Rutgers together, you approach a million viewers in NYC, plus the influential NYC media market for sportswriting, branding, etc.

If the B12 could add all of ND, Maryland, and Rutgers, this sets up the dream scenario for the Big 12. I think the B12 would go immediately to at least 14 teams if both Maryland and Rutgers opened up. You simply cannot pass on acquiring league carriage in both the NYC and Washington D.C. markets. Football, basketball, media, TV viewers, recruiting, branding, proximity to other eastern B12 schools -- the "ND, Maryland, Rutgers" scenario has it all for the B12.

But 14 teams is unbalanced, and, as mentioned above, creates massive scheduling nightmares. The SEC and ACC are absolutely going to hate 14-team leagues because some teams won't play other teams for years and years, unless you're willing to play only 2 OOC games per year, which, for most -- and especially ND -- is unacceptable. There's not very good conference cohesion in 14-team leagues, especially if you use a "protected rivalry" format like the SEC does.

Everyone wants to play at least 4 OOC games, especially ND with their myriad rivalry games. The need for OOC games suggest you expand all the way to 16 teams because with 16 teams, your schedule can be balanced, and you can play every team in the league every 3 years if you employ a pod system. In a 16-team conference you can play a full 7-game conference schedule and you can play 5 OCC games, which is more than you can play in a 12-team conference. Or, if you employ a "protected rivalry" scheduling scheme, you could play 8 conference games with 4 OOC games, which is the same as a 12-team conference, and more OOC games than a 10-team conference.

If Maryland (or some other ACC school) could be coaxed from the ACC, then maybe 3 out of Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and/or Pittsburgh might want to join ND, Maryland, and Rutgers in the B12? If not, you've still got several other possibilities in Connecticut, Louisville, USF, Cincinnati, possibly a sobered-up BYU, and I really like Tulane (their 23,000+ gameday draw notwithstanding). Memphis has also been mentioned in some scuttlebutt, so there's that. I personally find East Carolina interesting, since they have a gamedraw of 49,000+, and would create a league presence in the State of North Carolina, but I am alone on this one apparently.

You get ND and other big-market schools, like Maryland and Rutgers, and there is talk that the B12's Tier 1 and 2 rights could then approximate $35M per school per year. Then you tack on your Tier 3 income. This is why Oklahoma's pending deal with FOX is so important to a school like ND. Money beyond Tier 1 and 2 can be made in the Big 12 -- Kansas, Texas, and now Oklahoma are proving it. In the B12, ND can have excellent sports competition as well as the ability to have a national ND network, and keep all the Tier 3 money. Add that to $35M per year for Tier 1 and 2, and that has got to cause ND to hesitate before passing on the B12. It might even prove to be more lucrative than staying independent.

As for ND merely associating with the B12 for all sports except football, that option has basically dried up and died. The B1G, ACC, and SEC would all required ND "all in." At this point so would the B12. It's "all in" or independence for ND.

Just some thoughts.
 
Thanks for relating your scenarios Xover. I don't have a clue what might happen but it's an interesting read.

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a sobered-up BYU
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This made me chortle. Just the thought of having to sober up a Mormon.........
 
allsome post XOVER - a lot to digest there about what could happen. I suspect ND will stay independent but I agree with you the B12 chances are probably much better than they have been about getting the irish to join. Regardless the next 30 days should be very interesting.
 
How does any of that benfit Texas or Oklahoma?

There are two bell weather schools in the current Big XII and anything to do with Maryland or Rutgers does absolutely nothing for them.

Texas and Oklahoma do not need the NY media. They have done and will do just fine without them. Adding ND opens up a ton of things granted. If that happens the scenario's grow exponentially.

I would think more North Carolina or Florida State and or Miami, places where Texas and Oklahoma may be able to recruit as better options with Notre Dame.

An addition of Notre Dame increases the quality of the school much higher than Rutgers or Maryland.

Texas, Oklahoma and Notre Dame in your conference........hell AM, Nebraska and Missouri would be begging to come back.

Interesting post but I think if you add ND, you need to think bigger and higher.
 
they will stay independent. they can keep their all of tier 1, 2, & 3 revenues that way. Why join a conference and split their tier 1/NBC $$$? I think focusing on tier 3 revenues is missing the forest for the trees. Most of the overall money is in tier 1 (that's why it's tier 1). It just gets split so many ways in a conference.
 
majorwhiteapples: Good thoughts. Thanks.

I disagree with you about the importance of the NYC and Washington D.C. markets -- I think they would benefit Texas and Oklahoma immensely, especially in branding (t-shirt sales, etc.), but also in many, many other ways as well. Remember, with Rutgers and Maryland, both NYC and Washington D.C. would be "part of" the Big 12. Secondly, Maryland is a close rival of our new member, WVU. Rutgers is a rival, too, though much less than Maryland. Finally, ND wants significant presence in the northeastern corridor, including NYC, and Rutgers gives that. I mean, you might even have to add Connecticut to entice ND into the B12 -- and Connecticut would be worth it for ND.

If the ACC were so severely damaged that North Carolina decided to leave the ACC -- they are the "Texas" of the ACC -- NC would almost surely join the B1G, along with Duke, or maybe Virginia (though VA appears tied to VT). I doubt NC would join the SEC or the B12. I do agree that if it looked like NC would jump, you do offer them and make them tell you "yes" or "no". NC in the B12 would be wonderful, no doubt about it. But I think NC = B1G. BTW, the SEC covets NC also.

Remember also that if NC decided to abandon the ACC, then the SEC would almost certainly move to 16. The B1G would likely move as well. The SEC and B1G would probably get first choice over the B12 for ACC teams. Happily, both of those conferences have their sights set on teams from the States of Virginia and North Carolina, not the teams I have listed (except the B1G likes Maryland, too). However, if ND joined the B12, and if the B1G added 2 ACC schools, the B1G would no longer have incentive to hold at 14, to wait on ND, since ND would be gone. The B1G is pretty conservative, but they might possibly move all the way to 16, since 14 is such an unhappy number. In this case, the B1G might take other B12 targets from the ACC, very possibly Maryland, but maybe Syracuse instead, or maybe Rutgers from the BE. Anyhow, if NC looks like it would leave, then there would be a feeding frenzy over the remaining ACC schools by the SEC, B1G, and B12.

I agree about Miami. They could be a possibility as well. I prefer FSU out of FL, but if FSU declined, there's Miami. I do not think you take both FSU and Miami even if both of GT and Clemson said "no." One or the other, preferably FSU. Futhermore, WVU intensely desires a State of Florida school for football recruiting purposes, even if it's South Florida. BTW, do not underestimate Pitt to the B12 if there is a move to 16. To repeat, ND wants teams in the northeast, as does WVU. Pitt:WVU as OU:Texas.

I disagree that NU, aggy, or MU would come back. They are too psychologically invested in validating their prior decisions to slink back to the B12. Besides, both the SEC and B1G would remain excellent conferences. Those teams are gone.

I doubt the B12 could attract anyone from the B1G or the SEC even with ND on board. The ACC is about as "high" as B12 sights can be set, I think, but having said that, Maryland, FSU, GT, and Clemson are not exactly chicken salad IMO. On this point we may have to agree to disagree.

Having typed all this, the most likely outcome right now is the Big 12 adds 2 BE teams, and holds at 12. If this is the way it is, my thinking is Rutgers and Louisville or Rutgers and Connecticut will get the call. I vacillate between Louisville and Connecticut.

tamster: Money. ND might be able to make more money in the B12 if the B12 can obtain a contract worth $35M per year per school, plus ND keeps its Tier 3. The only way ND would join is if they could make more money in the B12 than they could remaining independent. ND is exploring its value as an independent with NBC as we type. And you can be sure NBC will pay top dollar -- however much that is -- because NBC does not want to lose ND to the B12 (or any other conference) and ESPN/FOX. NBC is motivated to regain market share in college football, and they do not want to lose their flagship in ND. Question is: Will "top dollar", even for ND, exceed around $50M per year? We shall see.
 
I would empty my wallet, my 401k, my complete savings, my mortgage and my frstborn that scenario #4 doesn't happen. I'd like it to, but it isn't going to happen
 
Well, yea, I see your point, texas_ex2000. NC definitely wants to be part of an AAU-type league, I think we both agree. Your scenario does significantly accomplish that for NC in the SEC, doesn't it? Gun to head, I'd still say B1G for NC; however, you have made me much less confident my brains would remain intact.
 
Lots of good thoughts and analysis in your post, XOVER.

Texas and ND playing every year or two. I'd go for that . . . .

Thanks.
 
XOVER, great analysis. However, I think you completely overestimate Maryland's significance in the DC market. UMD is sort of like UH in the way of being a commuter school where the student's and alumni never really get behind the teams. There's a far larger following for VT here than UMD in football for obvious reasons and the Redskins and Ravens dominate the football market. Check the Washington Post sports page any weekend and you'll find absolutely nothing about UMD except for the recent coverage of their new coach in a corner somewhere. Even in basketball, the market is so saturated with the Big East and the rest of the ACC schools that UMD just doesn't rate airtime. UT already gets plenty of airtime here, so the fact that they'd play here once every 3-4 years wouldn't do much for the conference. I suspect Rutgers has similar issues in the NYC market, but don't have nearly as much experience there.
 
I had a brief conversation with Chris Plonsky Friday night at the women's basketball reunion reception. Here are the highlights:

- As things stand now, Notre Dame will not, "in our lifetime," join a conference for football.
- It would take a change of heart at ND for DeLoss to want the Big 12 to expand past 10.
a) a 9 game conference schedule makes for a stronger conference because...
b) with 8-games, coaches would want that 4th OOC game to be a creampuff, which lowers the quality of play and revenue.
c) a couple Big 12 schools would like to expand to 12 quickly, but Texas will fight that and "DeLoss usually gets what he wants."
- Not a single aggy coach wanted to go the the SEC because they knew the lack of nearby away games would hurt recruiting.
- The decision was made by Bowen and the regents. Few inside the athletic dept. supported it.
- We are working on ND to bring their olympic sports to the Big 12. It's a better geographic fit than what will be left of the Big East.
 
Pogo - thanks for sharing what CP told you - very interesting.. I am not surprised he does not think ND will go to a conference for football anytime soon. I can also see DD wanting to keep the B12 to 9 or 10 teams versus the original 12.
 
So, what does the Big 12 (non-football association) offer Notre Dame?

(1) A solid home for men’s and women’s basketball, and the non-revenue sports, for starters;

(2) Texas athletic director DeLoss Dodds is on record supporting Notre Dame’s candidacy, and throughout the realignment drama, it seems more conferences are making a case against than for the Irish. Not the Big 12;

(3) Ability to retain all revenue from NBC football contract;

(4) Freedom to explore a Notre Dame Network;

(5) Rivalries with Oklahoma and Texas. The Big 12 would welcome non-conference games with Notre Dame. Oklahoma and Texas, which already have future series with Notre Dame, become regulars along with Michigan and Southern California. (This would increase the value of future Notre Dame TV contracts.);

(6) Solid recruiting advantages. The recruiting grounds in Texas are among the best in the country. Oklahoma isn't that bad either, with Tulsa-Union and Tulsa-Jenks consistently among the best football teams in the United States; and

(7) Huge money potential.
 
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