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beencounting

500+ Posts
I'll say that I'm a Rocket fan and am very surprised by their recent upswing but I don't think they have it to make it to the WCF.

Out of the West, I see

1. Spurs as the best. When Parker comes back and Duncan gets into the groove with the Ginobli being a dominant force in the league and their usual clamp down defense, this is the team.

2. Lakers - Incredible addition with Gasol and with Kobe and Odom and a strong bench they have a good shot at outdoing the Spurs, but who can stop Duncan? Fisher will get destroyed by Parker.

3. Houston - Inside presence, can Tmac be consistent? Improving Defense

4. Mavs - a franchise on the decline

5. Suns - another franchise that has peaked. Nash joins Stockton as a great PG never to win it.

6. Hornets - glory run is over. Paul as the next Isaiah or even compared to him seriously is a travesty. Vastly overrated team.


East

1. With Ben Wallace, I'm going with Cleveland

2. Pistons - great teamwork but Lebron dunked on Detroit at will due to no inside presence.

3. Celtics - could go it but KG seems old and aside from the big 3, which can be inconsistent at times, the bench is very bad.


We may see a redo of last years finals, which I am at this moment giving 51% to. If the Lakers continue to improve or SA sputters, I see the glory matchup of Lebron vs. Kobe.
 
You have not watched Ben Wallace play this year, he will be a decent addition, but definitely not enough to beat Detroit or Boston. Cleveland was very lucky to beat Detroit last year, they exploited a weakness and caught the Pistons in a major slump. They may end up beating them again this year, but there is no way you can say they are a better team. They are 9.5 games FYI. I would put Orlando ahead of Cleveland as well.
 
Everyone's really sucking up to the Western Conference because of how close everyone is to each other, but I think at the end of the season the cream will rise to the top. The standings won't look so jumbled up.

I don't see Denver making the playoffs. They really screwed up by not making any trades. Ron Artest would've been the perfect fit for them because they need D badly.

Originally, I went on a limb to say the Suns won't make the playoffs after the Shaq trade. But because of Denver's collapse, someone has to get the last spot, and I guess I'll give it to the Suns.

Whatever happens, I hope Golden State gets to match up with Dallas again, because the Warriors would once again beat them in a 7 game series, and that would be ultra hilarious! Getting Kidd will not help them beat GS.

If I'm Dallas, I go hard after Elton Brand in the off-season. They will never beat GS until they get a big guy that can score. I don't know what their salary cap situation is though.
 
Jason Kidd is a huge bonus for the Mavs. He is single-handedly increasing the tempo of the Mavs offense. They should end up with homecourt advantage for the first round. It would seem that Denver would be the odd team out.

Hook'em!!!
texasflag.gif
 
You're the only person I know that thinks Chris Paul is overrated. He's clearly the best point guard in the league. At least in the top 3 right now. Yes, I'd rather have him than Nash or Kidd.

He'll own this league for the next ten years.
 
I don't know if "own' is a word I'd use, but he should be in the running for MVP this year.

Hook'em!!!
texasflag.gif
 
dallas would not lose to GS again. i'm sure you loved it lastyear and really hope for it again, but it won't happen again. we had lost like 6 of 7 before last years playoffs so i was a dallas fan that put that series and myabe 50/50, knowing we had a gerat chance of losing. this season we have played them better so far and if it were the case, i'd take the mavs in 5 if it were to happen. unlike last year where any true mavs fan would have known that the first round matchup(even though dallas had 67 wins) against GS would not be a pretty one.
 
Winning a 7 game series is not a fluke. GS still matches up with Dallas really well. One year later after the trade deadline, Dallas still can't match up with Golden State. They need a big man that can score inside, and they don't have one. What are they hoping for... for Brandon Bass to go off against them?

Dallas has beaten GS twice this year, but one was without Jackson. The other was legit (played in early January) and Davis had a horrible game. I don't see Davis playing like that in the playoffs.
 
Jason Kidd doesn't match up well with Baron Davis at all. Last time they met:

[pre] pts rbs ast to stl
Kidd 6 8 12 2 2
Davis 25 12 10 2 5[/pre]

Then also consider that Monta Ellis sucked in the playoffs last year as a 21-year-old. It remains to be seen how he'll play in the playoffs this year, but I'm guessing he'll play better than "suck." He's tearing it up so far this season.

The biggest problem GS has is they might not make it into the playoffs at all. If they somehow make it in, they'd be destroyed by Utah and SA, but have a better than good chance against anybody else.
 
Why would Dallas have to win the WC to play Golden St? Golden St is in the WC. They could play in the 2nd round if the Warriors finish as the 8 seed again and Dallas finishes 4th or 5th.

I agree with the OP that at this point the Lakers, Spurs, and Rockets look like the top 3 teams in the West with Dallas right behind them. Phoenix could fall here in the 2nd half. But they could just need some time to get used to playing with Shaq and they have had to play the top 3 teams in the league in Shaq's first three games. They just don't look that good right now.
 
Agree with the assessment of the West. The Spurs are clearly the team to beat. IMHO, the recent flurry of trades in the West was evidence of teams trying to adjust their lineups to improve their match ups against the Spurs. After all the smoke cleared, I think the Lakers did the most to improve their rosters vis-a-vis the Spurs.

In the East, I think its too early to count out Detroit. I know its close between the Pistons, Celtics and Cavaliers, but in a 7 game series, I would give the Pistons the edge because of playoff experience. The Cavs and Celtics are talented, but I think they come up short in a 7 game series against the Pistons.
cow.gif
 
Despite the current streak, it's hard to imagine the Rockets being on the short list of NBA championship possibilities. Call me hard-headed but I need to see them holdup during the rigors of winning a series before thinking they have a chance.

Hook'em!!!
texasflag.gif
 
it funny when posters want to put houston in the same set with SA, LAL, boston, detroit, and now cleveland as serious contenders, but not the mavericks.

not that the mavs really belong either, but what has houston done in the past 10 years, or this season even, to deserve such praise? why are they any better than dallas or phoenix or new orleans?
 
I'm beginning to believe that the East goes as Paul Pierce goes. If his game is on, he can give 35pts, 8rebs 6 assists, a stat line very much like Lebron. Thus he is the anti-Lebron and can push the Celtics out of the East, especially if KG and Ray Allen step up.
 
I don't care what happened last year, Boston was had the worst record now the best.

Spurs, champs have inside outside game, deep bench and they have been there before
Rockets, Like Spurs dominate post player and now T-Mac has a ton of help
Lakers, this was a playoff team without Gasol and now that he is there they are stacked with scorers and have the best frontcourt in the NBA

Utah is dam good but losing Fisher really hurts and I just don't think they are there with those first three

New Orleans has over-achived but I can't see them doing anything other than fading to the 6th or 7th seed and being one and done

Dallas-Can't see them beating the Rockets, Spurs, Suns and Lakers with Dampier and a soft Dirk

Suns-Now they might be able to win it we just need to see how the Shaq thing plays out.

Denver-Golden State good but not great one misses playoffs the other is the 8th seed and will lose to the Lakers
 
One more thing, Rockets had a 33% roster turnover with a new coach/system T-Mac injured early a rotation that was not set.

Everything is coming together.

Are they better than the Spurs and Lakers? Not sure

Are they on par or better than the rest of the teams? I think so

Are they better than any of the teams in the east? Yes
 
I'll see if I can help you trying to figure out how good the Rockets are.

By my account against the 8 West contenders the Rockets are 7-11. The only one they have a winning record is the Spurs at 2-1; the worst is the Mavs at 0-3.

They've certainly played well in their current streak but 8 of those were against teams with llosing records.

Hook'em!!!
texasflag.gif
 
I think it comes down to the Lakers and Spurs in the west. They are playing the best ball of anyone in the league right now, and the Lakers get Bynum back and the Spurs have already got Parker back. They both can play better than they have, and that's a scary thought.

In the east, it's Boston, Detroit and Cleveland. On paper, the Pistons have the deepest and most experienced roster, but I can't get beyond how they let Lebron singlehandedly kill them in the playoffs last year. The Celtics probably peaked too early, and we don't know how their young complementary players are going to handle the pressure of the playoffs. I wasn't wild about the trade Cleveland made at first, but I think they got the better end of the deal. They at least got a little tougher and more physical, which never hurts you in the playoffs.

I know the Rockets have been on a tear, but they have been feasting on some dogs during this run. There are some nice wins sprinkled in there (NO, Cle 2x, SA), but I'm not going to put too much stock in them, especially with McGrady's (and Adelman's) playoff history.

The one thing nobody has mentioned in the GS/Dal matchup is that Jason Richardson is gone now. He absolutely killed the Mavs in the past. Despite his age and alleged defensive slippage, I think Kidd matches up better against Davis than Harris or Terry did. But if you look at the Mavs, their revamped roster is really geared to play small ball. That would be an incredible series to watch.
 
Back to Chris Paul being overrated:

Ast/turnover ratio #3 in league at 4.28
Scoring #2 PG at 20.7
Steals per game #1 league
Rebounds #5 PG
Shooting % 48 [kidd is a woeful 37]

Isiah was a great player but his career Ast/TO ratio was 2.5. A lot of turnovers.

Overrated my ***.
 
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