NBA All-time Scoring mark

H

hornpharmd

5,000+ Posts
In the last 10 years we have seen a big change. Many players had skipped college and entered the NBA at a very early age. Now many top players who are required to wait 1 year after HS before joining the NBA are leaving college after only 1 season. End result is the NBA is becoming a much younger league. Also there are players who are going to possibly gain an extra 3-4 years on their NBA careers. Due to this possible career lengthening one likely outcome will be that career records will likely be in jeopardy more often going forward.

The all-time career points record which seemed so unattainable 20 years ago now seems very much within reach if some of these guys keep playing and playing at a high level.

All-time Points leaders:
1. Kareem - 38,387 (24.6 PPG)...20 seasons (19 full seasons)
2. Malone - 36, 928 (25.0 PPG)...19 seasons (18 full seasons)
3. Jordan - 32, 292 (30.1 PPG)...15 seasons (13 full seasons)
4. Chamberlain - 31,419 (30.1 PPG)...14 seasons (13 full seasons)

Just to take a quick look at the 2 guys that I think have the best chance of breaking this record within their career:

Kobe Bryant:
Has played 11.75 seasons and is currently 29 years old. Currently has 21,304 career points...25th all-time. It did take Kobe 3-4 years to really get things going and adjust to the NBA fully. It wasn't until his 4th season that he surpassed the 20 PPG mark...but since that season has only had 1 season where he scored less than 25 PPG. If he stays on his career average of 25 PPG he will need about 8-9 more seasons to obtain 17,000 more points and pass Kareem for #1 all-time. If he averages about 28 PPG it will take him just a little over 7 seasons to do this. For him similar to Alex Rodriguez the question will be then how far will he want to take it?...40k?...45k?

Lebron James:
Ok, yes he just passed 10k and is quite a bit off right now. However he is finished up only his 5th season and is only 23 years old. If he averages 28-29 PPG for the next 6 full seasons he will be only 29 years old and have about 25k career points. That would be ahead of Kobe's mark now at 29 years old (again about 21,500 by end of this season).

In my opinion Lebron came into the league with a more NBA ready body. He was physically more mature than just about any player I have ever seen at the age of 18-19. That being said there is reason to suspect that his body could decline faster than Kobe's and that he will not be anywhere near the same player as Kobe when he is 29 and especially when he is 33-37.

Regardless of who does it I do think these are the 2 top candidates currently and that 1 of them will likely hold the NBA all-time points record by the end of their careers....could be in 8 years for Kobe.

Discuss.
 
Kareem's position was much less physically demanding than what Kobe and LeBron have to do. Running fast breaks, driving to the hole. They are much more active. Kareem usually sat under the basket or close to it and the lakers would try to work it into him. He didnt have to run fast breaks like magic did, although he frequently finished them.

It takes a lot less toll on you body to post up, catch the ball and then turn and "sky hook" the ball through the net. Kobe and LeBron have to do alot of maneuvering to get their shots, not to mention all the fast breaks and wild dunks that take their toll on a body.

Kareem was great, but I think the way he played and the position he played allowed him to play as long as he did. I dont think Kobe and LeBron can play that long- and be effective as they need to be to play that long, even though they have a 3-4 year headstart on Kareem.
 
Ken Griffey Jr was on his way to easily passing Hank Aaron, and you see what happened there. When a record is 10 years away from being broken, its impossible to know what will happen
 
Lots of things are different, too many to really compare. Back in the day they didn't have a 3 point line, but Kareem probably wouldn't have used it anyways. He did however take advantage of the free throw rules, or lack thereof. His teamates used to purposely miss their second shot so Kareem could get the easy rebound and layup.

Bottom line, you can't compare the difficult of different eras in sports. I don't see Kobe breaking the mark though. He will wane after three or four more seasons probably though. LeBron does have a chance to get up there and I see no problem with it. The kid is a stud and if he can do it I won't credit the age he got started.
 
True they do take a beating down there. I just think that players like Kobe and LeBron rely more on their knees and QUICKNESS to get looks. Kareem had some bad knees toward the end, but could still post up and skyhook. When Kobe and LeBrons knees and quickness goes - they are done. They are not 7'2 and post up on the block every possession. Thats just what I think.
 
Perimeter players don't age as gracefully as post-players. It's not an accident that 3 of the top 4 scorers in NBA history are big men. Kareem was still effective at an advanced age, even though his physical skills had diminished. He could still post you up, and it didn't hurt that Magic was constantly setting him up for easy buckets. Once Kobe and Lebron lose a step, they are done. I don't see how either one of them will clock enough years to catch Kareem.
 
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